fuBarrio´s first theorem of Bad Luck

Ok....little bit of a posting hiatus due to travel, my laptop being on its last legs, and wasting a bunch of my energy posting thoughts on a bulletin board where people can actually post back and refute my beliefs (gasp!)

Of course, it´s no heroic show of bravery to point out that a bald dog "has no clothes", it was still shocking nonetheless. :)

My end of year posts may have seemed a bit apocalyptic....and so, naturally, people asked me..."ok, so how do i protect myselft". In being asked to tell people where to hide, what to do, what brand of duct tape to hermetically seal oneself off in their stucco death box in the event of a chemical attack hitting California´s inland empire, i broke one of the principal caveats of fubarrio.

I unequivocally told them what to do (gasp, again!)

i said, "BUY GOLD, you ninnies". of course, i also pointed out that because of fuBarrio´s first theorem of Bad Luck that the first week of the year would probably have a beat down on the "bling that makes my heart sing" (i.e. gold)

the first week´s worth of trading is about over and you´ve been given cheaper prices.. if you live in the northeast you´ve even been given a thaw to dig that hole in your back yard where you´ll store it. but, you may ask, how fubarrio, did you know that gold would take a beat down in the first week? i didn´t obviously....however, fuBarrio´s first theorem of bad luck states that in the immediate aftermath of EXPRESSED overconfidence in an asset, a relationship, a job prospect, etc etc etc there will be a readjustment of expectations.

why?

my loose working theory is that it is SO difficult to put yourself "out there" with a prediction (that is, if you don´t like being embarrassed) that people tend to avoid it...most people anyways.

even when someone like me, who clearly doesn´t mind looking like an idiot (as long as i still have adoring fans!...anything for fame) predicts something it is usually fraught with enough disclaimers to make a lawyer blush. so, people tend to get bullish enough to make public proclamations after a goodsized bullish run....about the time that it is due for a breather

even though i have confidence in the underlying trends i attempt to identify, there are SIGNIFICANT crosswinds that can make me look like a complete buffoon in the short run.

that said, RIGHT NOW, get yourself setup to buy bullion, buy the gld (or slv) etf, or the gdx (gold mining index). if you are already set up, congrats.

now, wait and watch....i SUSPECT that around chinese new year (i would attempt to front run this by about a week or so) you will start to see support in the price of gold. i am legging in, RIGHT NOW (damn the gods of fubarrio´s first theorem).

if you want to try to time a turn (very foolish usually) and make a speculative play, i will (unless you hear here otherwise) be buying in a leveraged way, and either be relaxing a good portion of 2007, or, a balding dog with bad teeth and a chronic halitosis problem will be your "greeter" next time you visit Wal Mart.

ciao,
fuBarrio