Well, we've returned "home" from our trip to Peru.
It'll probably sound kind of pathetic but the entire time away I was really missing our dog. We had the original plan to put her in the kennel because she likes to play with other dogs.
Then GL found an easier (for her at least) way to take care of her needs while we were away.
Ode had our housekeeper, Rita, come and stay at our apartment and take care of Midori while we were away. This worked out well because she was able to clean up the semi-disaster we left on the way out the door before we got home too :)
I'd heard it said before that it's great to come home to a clean house. And, I think I've even heard of some folks who clean their house before going on a trip -- no one from my generation I can assure you. But, I have to say it was refreshing. And, of course Midori was taken care of.
The dog loved it. No furniture was eaten or soiled. The floors were shiny, windows sparkling, kitchen ready for cooking, and bed was made - which i quickly crashed in after our red eye and early a.m. layover in chile.
We haven't had a maid for long in UY -- we were here nearly two years before GL broke down and asked rita to come in a day or two a week and help out with some household cleaning and chores. Housekeepers, household help, maids, nannies, and in home nurses are all things that are relative bargains here as compared to Seattle or San Francisco where I lived before.
In San Francisco the maid that came in to dust and clean the parts of my house cost $200/day. In WA state, Seattle maid services costed around 150/afternoon at the "turn of the century" when I lived there. Here, there are literally people who have full time maids or household help for a similar salary (monthly).
All in all the cost to have our housekeeper come and stay with the dog ended up being less expensive than sending her to the kennel for a week and all the way around less disruptive -- sometimes it's hard to find cabs who will accept labs in the back (it's against some rules apparently and i know people who've been ticketed for it :) )
Ok....I promise to post some pics of peru soon -- all of them are on GL's laptop though so I need to wait for a chance to kick her off long enough to post 'em.
ciao
UG
Friday, August 29, 2008
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Coked to the Gills
Uruguay Guy and Golden Lotus are in Cusco, Peru today.
Seeings how the 30 meters above sea level is considered "high ground" in Uruguay this is pretty dramatic change in altitude for us.
Luckily, strong backed Peruvian Indians are very inexpensive to rent for the day and I've hired 4 for each of us to carry us around by hand on giant thrones. I got the idea after visiting the Peruvian gold museum. GOLD! :) But I'll save the details of that for another post.
The peruvian sherpas have helped with the lack of O2 and they also introduced us to a little friend called the "coca leaf" :) Ok, in truth I think there is some processing that takes place before you get the really potent stuff...I'll wiki this later....but the coca leaf itself has some medicinal qualities. The indians like to put it in their gum like chaw and serve it to tourists in a slightly more dignified "tea" --- which i'm sure loses some of the potency of putting it in your cheek and gum ("skoal brutha")
I've had about 30 of these cups of tea so far with no side effect other than the nasty hangover i get after i sleep -- my solution? "keep drinkin the tea" :)
Obviously lots more to write about and pics to post. but, some crazy tour guide was trying to get us to wake up at 4:30 (!) good grief....i told her no freakin' way and she finally whined her way into convincing me that she really needs to come by and pick us up at 5:20. (what are we doing? going duck hunting?)
Well, if you know anything about cusco, you probably know what we're doing. and even if you don't you can probably guess. but, more on that in future posts. bedtime for now. i'm starting to come down off my coca high and i'm not sure how easy it will be to "score" this time of night :)
ciao,
UruguayGuy
Seeings how the 30 meters above sea level is considered "high ground" in Uruguay this is pretty dramatic change in altitude for us.
Luckily, strong backed Peruvian Indians are very inexpensive to rent for the day and I've hired 4 for each of us to carry us around by hand on giant thrones. I got the idea after visiting the Peruvian gold museum. GOLD! :) But I'll save the details of that for another post.
The peruvian sherpas have helped with the lack of O2 and they also introduced us to a little friend called the "coca leaf" :) Ok, in truth I think there is some processing that takes place before you get the really potent stuff...I'll wiki this later....but the coca leaf itself has some medicinal qualities. The indians like to put it in their gum like chaw and serve it to tourists in a slightly more dignified "tea" --- which i'm sure loses some of the potency of putting it in your cheek and gum ("skoal brutha")
I've had about 30 of these cups of tea so far with no side effect other than the nasty hangover i get after i sleep -- my solution? "keep drinkin the tea" :)
Obviously lots more to write about and pics to post. but, some crazy tour guide was trying to get us to wake up at 4:30 (!) good grief....i told her no freakin' way and she finally whined her way into convincing me that she really needs to come by and pick us up at 5:20. (what are we doing? going duck hunting?)
Well, if you know anything about cusco, you probably know what we're doing. and even if you don't you can probably guess. but, more on that in future posts. bedtime for now. i'm starting to come down off my coca high and i'm not sure how easy it will be to "score" this time of night :)
ciao,
UruguayGuy
short term bounce, long in tooth
ok the short term bounce i called about a month ago didn't have the washout confirmation other than intraday. so unless you're an active trader you may have missed the day but if you've been bullish on us markets and us dollar and short all the commodities the last month you've probably faired pretty well.....there were a ton of entry points.
now, it's going to get a little trickier. :)
we've got some conflicting opinions out there, however the ones i tend to believe think that there is a setup approaching for something potentially ugly in the markets.
THE TURN COULD BE AS SOON AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
that said, "there's always a bull market somewhere." some "credible" models put an oil temporary bottom between 100-110 per barrel (back when it was still in the 130's). we are very close to that now. a move below 110 could provide some of the "fuel" for a move solidly into the 1300's for the s&p.
a subsequent rally back into the 120's for oil *could* be the straw that sent the markets down. Right now, obviously, it's all conjecture, but the reason i'm wasting digital ink on this is that the people who have been relatively accurate in modeling the markets moves the last couple of months model the next bearish move as bein significant enough to be something you want to avoid.
time will tell if they are right.
if i have time tomorrow, i'll outline a little bit of the "bullish" case going forward which would be the counter argument to the technicians who use elliott waves to predict price movements.
ciao,
uruguayguy
now, it's going to get a little trickier. :)
we've got some conflicting opinions out there, however the ones i tend to believe think that there is a setup approaching for something potentially ugly in the markets.
THE TURN COULD BE AS SOON AS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
that said, "there's always a bull market somewhere." some "credible" models put an oil temporary bottom between 100-110 per barrel (back when it was still in the 130's). we are very close to that now. a move below 110 could provide some of the "fuel" for a move solidly into the 1300's for the s&p.
a subsequent rally back into the 120's for oil *could* be the straw that sent the markets down. Right now, obviously, it's all conjecture, but the reason i'm wasting digital ink on this is that the people who have been relatively accurate in modeling the markets moves the last couple of months model the next bearish move as bein significant enough to be something you want to avoid.
time will tell if they are right.
if i have time tomorrow, i'll outline a little bit of the "bullish" case going forward which would be the counter argument to the technicians who use elliott waves to predict price movements.
ciao,
uruguayguy
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Tucson Jewelry
Tucson Jewelry
By virtue of the fact that I give free internet marketing advice on another one of my blogs, I became acquainted with a new friend that had some questions regarding selling online (retail) in a local market. As you may have gathered from the title of this post, her husband and her are one of several retailers in the tucson jewelry market.
I remember marvelling (out loud) while driving around Arizona back in 2004 when things were still booming, "how do all these retail storefronts stay in business?" Now that things are slowing down a bit, how do higher end retailers do?
Jewelry Store in Tucson
It turns out that the founder of Rainbow Jewelers got his start in the jewelery markets of New York. During his time there, he developed a certain craftsmanship and expertise in custom jewelry and repairs. The custom stuff and repairs are keeping their business thriving while people get more price sensitive to the price of gold, diamonds and other precious gems.
Tucson Diamonds
Apparently, after talking to her, she told me that there are quite a few people who will buy a diamond loose and then "go local" and have their jewelry store in tucson to have it placed in a custom designed ring, etc.
That makes sense I guess. If you're trying to save a few bones but are in the situation where you want (or need -- more on this later) to spend some of your hard earned pesos on some diamond jewelry, there are quite a few online retailers that can provide competitive prices.
Online Jewelry Stores
I bought a present for Golden Lotus a couple of times from BlueNile. I know next to nothing about diamonds and other precious gems, (and frankly my tin foil leanings make me believe it's an artificial market being run by a cartel which limits the supply on the open market) but gosh darnit...try explaining that to most women out there -- including Golden Lotus.
So, rather than wait for man-made diamonds to further mature to deliver colorless stones at reasonable prices, I bought online.
Diamond Engagement Rings
As it so turns out, I happen to be in the market for one of these -- shhhhhhh -- don't tell Golden Lotus :)
Of course like many things in Uruguay, the prices relative to the size, and quality of, cut, clarity, color, etc left a little to be desired. At the jewelry store in punta carretas, they wanted over 20,000 for most anything decent -- not huge stones -- just a carat or so.
Now, I know the dollar is down and gold, platinum, diamonds, and (probably everything) is up, but good grief. These seemed to be overpriced by about 2x over what they "should" run.
At the same time, I'm a little freaked out about the process of getting a ring sent by one of the online retailers to UY, because I'm guessing if they could guess there was diamond jewelry in that package, I'd owe a duty on it.
An Idea!
So, now the wheels start turning in my head....
I can put myself into indentured servitude for Golden Lotus' engagement ring! brilliant, huh?
It would be like a 21st century version of the sharecropper settling up with the company store at the end of the month...
"well, at .50/hour, you worked 320 hours this month, and that totals out to 160 dollars, congratulations!"
"now, let's see....that's less $15 for the bottle of vodka, $22 for the large bag of rice, $18 dollars for the box of top ramen, $56 for the new keyboard, and $12,000 for the diamond engagement ring....that puts you at only 11,924 dollars in the hole.....see you next month!"
it could be the hole new model for displaced IT workers worldwide....gets companies out of those pesky social security and medicare contributions!
hasta,
Uruguay Guy
p.s. all joking aside, i think for small retailers a skill that differentiates and can't easily be commoditized (like his jewelry repair skills and custom jewelry business) will do better than those who are forced to compete on price in commoditized businesses like the Diamond or Gold Business. I heard a similar thing from a friend of mine who used to deal in silver and gold coins and decided to go into the investment advisory business instead....even though prices are booming, margins aren't.
By virtue of the fact that I give free internet marketing advice on another one of my blogs, I became acquainted with a new friend that had some questions regarding selling online (retail) in a local market. As you may have gathered from the title of this post, her husband and her are one of several retailers in the tucson jewelry market.
I remember marvelling (out loud) while driving around Arizona back in 2004 when things were still booming, "how do all these retail storefronts stay in business?" Now that things are slowing down a bit, how do higher end retailers do?
Jewelry Store in Tucson
It turns out that the founder of Rainbow Jewelers got his start in the jewelery markets of New York. During his time there, he developed a certain craftsmanship and expertise in custom jewelry and repairs. The custom stuff and repairs are keeping their business thriving while people get more price sensitive to the price of gold, diamonds and other precious gems.
Tucson Diamonds
Apparently, after talking to her, she told me that there are quite a few people who will buy a diamond loose and then "go local" and have their jewelry store in tucson to have it placed in a custom designed ring, etc.
That makes sense I guess. If you're trying to save a few bones but are in the situation where you want (or need -- more on this later) to spend some of your hard earned pesos on some diamond jewelry, there are quite a few online retailers that can provide competitive prices.
Online Jewelry Stores
I bought a present for Golden Lotus a couple of times from BlueNile. I know next to nothing about diamonds and other precious gems, (and frankly my tin foil leanings make me believe it's an artificial market being run by a cartel which limits the supply on the open market) but gosh darnit...try explaining that to most women out there -- including Golden Lotus.
So, rather than wait for man-made diamonds to further mature to deliver colorless stones at reasonable prices, I bought online.
Diamond Engagement Rings
As it so turns out, I happen to be in the market for one of these -- shhhhhhh -- don't tell Golden Lotus :)
Of course like many things in Uruguay, the prices relative to the size, and quality of, cut, clarity, color, etc left a little to be desired. At the jewelry store in punta carretas, they wanted over 20,000 for most anything decent -- not huge stones -- just a carat or so.
Now, I know the dollar is down and gold, platinum, diamonds, and (probably everything) is up, but good grief. These seemed to be overpriced by about 2x over what they "should" run.
At the same time, I'm a little freaked out about the process of getting a ring sent by one of the online retailers to UY, because I'm guessing if they could guess there was diamond jewelry in that package, I'd owe a duty on it.
An Idea!
So, now the wheels start turning in my head....
I can put myself into indentured servitude for Golden Lotus' engagement ring! brilliant, huh?
It would be like a 21st century version of the sharecropper settling up with the company store at the end of the month...
"well, at .50/hour, you worked 320 hours this month, and that totals out to 160 dollars, congratulations!"
"now, let's see....that's less $15 for the bottle of vodka, $22 for the large bag of rice, $18 dollars for the box of top ramen, $56 for the new keyboard, and $12,000 for the diamond engagement ring....that puts you at only 11,924 dollars in the hole.....see you next month!"
it could be the hole new model for displaced IT workers worldwide....gets companies out of those pesky social security and medicare contributions!
hasta,
Uruguay Guy
p.s. all joking aside, i think for small retailers a skill that differentiates and can't easily be commoditized (like his jewelry repair skills and custom jewelry business) will do better than those who are forced to compete on price in commoditized businesses like the Diamond or Gold Business. I heard a similar thing from a friend of mine who used to deal in silver and gold coins and decided to go into the investment advisory business instead....even though prices are booming, margins aren't.
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Short Term Bounce
another short term bounce alert is in effect for US markets....
while not here yet, the setup that we are watching closely for is a big fast move downward -- a "wash out".
the idea is that this would create an opportunity to base and move higher for a couple of weeks, getting us into august at which point active traders would want to reinstate short positions.
the one caveat: tons of people are looking for the same thing right now. oft times, paradoxically, for the bounce to happen, people have to stop looking for it -- that's what will trigger the capitulation and subsquent "felinius mortus" bounce.
UG
p.s. the move in the metals would be (likely) toward 1k/oz (or an assault on the all time high), then a retrace, into the mid to low 900's (at least), basing and marching back northward in late summer/early autumn.
p.p.s. skf would move counter to these trends, violently.
p.p.s. how do we know when a washout is a washout? look for the volatility index (VIX) to post a number solidly in the 30's (it spent time there today). the last two or three reversals posted big "red candles" on the VIX where it opened the day high and closed decidedly lower -- this gets triggered by an overnight scare and stick save bringing the markets higher during the trading day.
while not here yet, the setup that we are watching closely for is a big fast move downward -- a "wash out".
the idea is that this would create an opportunity to base and move higher for a couple of weeks, getting us into august at which point active traders would want to reinstate short positions.
the one caveat: tons of people are looking for the same thing right now. oft times, paradoxically, for the bounce to happen, people have to stop looking for it -- that's what will trigger the capitulation and subsquent "felinius mortus" bounce.
UG
p.s. the move in the metals would be (likely) toward 1k/oz (or an assault on the all time high), then a retrace, into the mid to low 900's (at least), basing and marching back northward in late summer/early autumn.
p.p.s. skf would move counter to these trends, violently.
p.p.s. how do we know when a washout is a washout? look for the volatility index (VIX) to post a number solidly in the 30's (it spent time there today). the last two or three reversals posted big "red candles" on the VIX where it opened the day high and closed decidedly lower -- this gets triggered by an overnight scare and stick save bringing the markets higher during the trading day.
Dunning for President
So, a Senator from KY has not only figured things out but is in the position to speak his mind, and maybe even do something about it.
This video is pretty amazing....especially given the source - the banking committee's q&a session with the head of the federal reserve.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=793876610&play=1
UG
This video is pretty amazing....especially given the source - the banking committee's q&a session with the head of the federal reserve.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=793876610&play=1
UG
Friday, July 04, 2008
America - Fuck Yeah!
America - Fuck Yeah!
Apologies to any minors whose ears this song may burn (yeah, right).
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
The midnight Forex Trader
A short anecdote I thought I'd retell here.
During winter down here, my day job takes up all of the available US market hours. So, the other day, needing some extra cash to give to my knee doctors, I thought -- "Hey, what better way to get the money back than through trading forex with absolutely no positive expectancy in my trades, just hoping to get lucky."
Ok, admittedly, I was a little more confident going in....but I shouldn't have been.
By way of background, I am the worlds WORST currency trader I believe. I'm the only person I know who lost money shorting the dollar in the last 5 years. If you go back and look at a long term chart of the Euro/USD I was long the EUR during the one "blip" there it actually went down...I gave up the ghost at 100-1 leverage at 1.19 if I remember right. It's now 1.58 --- grrr... :)
Anyhow, I thought, it'll be different this time....I have a new trading platform (interactive brokers -- I've actually had it forever, but my previous experience with currencies kept me away from actually playing the forex market).
Well, I kicked myself the last time that I saw the Yen go under 100/dollar...I had been making the call for quite sometime that it was ripe. But, when it moved, it move FAST...over 10 percent in a week.....guys who were 100/1 leverage 10x'ed their money.
So now that it was back around 108 again, and the dollar had shown some inexpicable strength, i thought it might be a time to play some more dollar weakness....
So, how it works is that you can buy the JPY/USD cross or the USD/JPY cross. In my "old" forex account I only bought or sold the usd/jpy. If I wanted to short the dollar, I would just sell this cross, at the time about 108, and then buy it back later for (hopefully) a lower price.
Leverage in Forex
So, one of the things that got me into trouble last time was the insane amounts of leverage available to you. A lot of the bucket shops and fly by night forex platforms will give you just enough leverage to hang yourself. at 200x leverage a small move can wash you out pretty good.
So, I was thinking that if I didn't lever in too heavy I would have a better chance of learning the ropes before I inadvertantly tied a hang man's noose.
Now, part of my confusion is that Interactive Brokers shows me two forex clearing houses to trade in, IDEAL and IDEALPRO (?) Pro, has much better spreads, like maybe a pip or two, but IDEAL (i'm guessing) has wider spreads but the ability to trade with a lower amount than the gross domestic product of chile at risk.
So, I tried to buy in with what I though was 10x leverage on my risk capital...that way if i caught a 1% move in the underlying I'd be up 10% (or vica versa).
I got the trade on (at 107.79) and the spread was between 3 or 4 pips....so it was bidding 107.79 - asking 107.83
I needed for the ask to fall BELOW 107.79 to make any kind of profit...where i could buy it back and take off my short.
immediately the currency pair started bouncing around and IB's interactive profit/loss indicator was kind enough to show my what was happening to my account. GOOD GRIEF....I must've messed something up....Within minutes I was $1250 down....and the bid/ask had barely moved against me.....
Now, forex and the currency markets run 24 hours a day as they chase around the globe. Here it was 2:30 in the morning and I was sweating to death. Did I understand the platform well enough to set a stop and have it be triggered successfully? I didn't want to bail on this trade because I thought it was right. But I didn't want to get washed out either...good grief....this may have been a time to try some "paper trading" before going live :)
I wanted to go to sleep but i didn't dare.
I optmistically placed a buy order (to go back flat) at 107.76 (if i remember right). After 20 or 30 agonizing minutes, it cleared!!!
There I was, breaking the cardinal rule of trading....letting your losses run, and cutting your winners short. But, good grief. I didn't want to be that leveraged. And I needed some sleep before trying to get confident with the stop loss orders for the IB's currency trader.
I was freaked out...I was still sweating...my heart rate was elevated....I'd just made 450 bucks in 30 minutes....as nice as that sounds, i'd chopped 4 years off my life and taken unwise risk with my portfolio....stupid stupid stupid...
"Well, at least that will pay for the MRI I need to get on my knee, " I thought.
OK....so, when I go in to check my account the next day, there is really no difference. Where'd the 450 go?
Puzzled I went back and studied the chain of events a couple of times. After another 1/2 hour of looking at everything it finally dawned on me.
I'd "banked" 450 YEN on that trade. Not dollars. I'd been down 1400 YEN at one point in the trade....about 14 bucks :)
Ee gads....what a lesson. There is something that paper trading can't do, and that is mimic the real world emotions that your body goes through when you have a trade on. To stay emotionally detached -- especially if you're stupid enough to be betting with money you can't afford to lose -- that's going to be pretty challenging (read: impossible). You're going to do stupid things like cutting your winners short.
The yen is now 2.5 percent lower (a couple of days later). If I would have placed that trade right and had the guts to stay in it, I would be up about 25%. But I didn't. And, I didn't.
All in all, I think the lesson into my own tolerance/threshold for pain and my bad trading habits (at least in forex) was worth a lot more than the 25% i would have gotten.
....Ok, lunch is over....back to the salt mines....
Uruguay Guy
During winter down here, my day job takes up all of the available US market hours. So, the other day, needing some extra cash to give to my knee doctors, I thought -- "Hey, what better way to get the money back than through trading forex with absolutely no positive expectancy in my trades, just hoping to get lucky."
Ok, admittedly, I was a little more confident going in....but I shouldn't have been.
By way of background, I am the worlds WORST currency trader I believe. I'm the only person I know who lost money shorting the dollar in the last 5 years. If you go back and look at a long term chart of the Euro/USD I was long the EUR during the one "blip" there it actually went down...I gave up the ghost at 100-1 leverage at 1.19 if I remember right. It's now 1.58 --- grrr... :)
Anyhow, I thought, it'll be different this time....I have a new trading platform (interactive brokers -- I've actually had it forever, but my previous experience with currencies kept me away from actually playing the forex market).
Well, I kicked myself the last time that I saw the Yen go under 100/dollar...I had been making the call for quite sometime that it was ripe. But, when it moved, it move FAST...over 10 percent in a week.....guys who were 100/1 leverage 10x'ed their money.
So now that it was back around 108 again, and the dollar had shown some inexpicable strength, i thought it might be a time to play some more dollar weakness....
So, how it works is that you can buy the JPY/USD cross or the USD/JPY cross. In my "old" forex account I only bought or sold the usd/jpy. If I wanted to short the dollar, I would just sell this cross, at the time about 108, and then buy it back later for (hopefully) a lower price.
Leverage in Forex
So, one of the things that got me into trouble last time was the insane amounts of leverage available to you. A lot of the bucket shops and fly by night forex platforms will give you just enough leverage to hang yourself. at 200x leverage a small move can wash you out pretty good.
So, I was thinking that if I didn't lever in too heavy I would have a better chance of learning the ropes before I inadvertantly tied a hang man's noose.
Now, part of my confusion is that Interactive Brokers shows me two forex clearing houses to trade in, IDEAL and IDEALPRO (?) Pro, has much better spreads, like maybe a pip or two, but IDEAL (i'm guessing) has wider spreads but the ability to trade with a lower amount than the gross domestic product of chile at risk.
So, I tried to buy in with what I though was 10x leverage on my risk capital...that way if i caught a 1% move in the underlying I'd be up 10% (or vica versa).
I got the trade on (at 107.79) and the spread was between 3 or 4 pips....so it was bidding 107.79 - asking 107.83
I needed for the ask to fall BELOW 107.79 to make any kind of profit...where i could buy it back and take off my short.
immediately the currency pair started bouncing around and IB's interactive profit/loss indicator was kind enough to show my what was happening to my account. GOOD GRIEF....I must've messed something up....Within minutes I was $1250 down....and the bid/ask had barely moved against me.....
Now, forex and the currency markets run 24 hours a day as they chase around the globe. Here it was 2:30 in the morning and I was sweating to death. Did I understand the platform well enough to set a stop and have it be triggered successfully? I didn't want to bail on this trade because I thought it was right. But I didn't want to get washed out either...good grief....this may have been a time to try some "paper trading" before going live :)
I wanted to go to sleep but i didn't dare.
I optmistically placed a buy order (to go back flat) at 107.76 (if i remember right). After 20 or 30 agonizing minutes, it cleared!!!
There I was, breaking the cardinal rule of trading....letting your losses run, and cutting your winners short. But, good grief. I didn't want to be that leveraged. And I needed some sleep before trying to get confident with the stop loss orders for the IB's currency trader.
I was freaked out...I was still sweating...my heart rate was elevated....I'd just made 450 bucks in 30 minutes....as nice as that sounds, i'd chopped 4 years off my life and taken unwise risk with my portfolio....stupid stupid stupid...
"Well, at least that will pay for the MRI I need to get on my knee, " I thought.
OK....so, when I go in to check my account the next day, there is really no difference. Where'd the 450 go?
Puzzled I went back and studied the chain of events a couple of times. After another 1/2 hour of looking at everything it finally dawned on me.
I'd "banked" 450 YEN on that trade. Not dollars. I'd been down 1400 YEN at one point in the trade....about 14 bucks :)
Ee gads....what a lesson. There is something that paper trading can't do, and that is mimic the real world emotions that your body goes through when you have a trade on. To stay emotionally detached -- especially if you're stupid enough to be betting with money you can't afford to lose -- that's going to be pretty challenging (read: impossible). You're going to do stupid things like cutting your winners short.
The yen is now 2.5 percent lower (a couple of days later). If I would have placed that trade right and had the guts to stay in it, I would be up about 25%. But I didn't. And, I didn't.
All in all, I think the lesson into my own tolerance/threshold for pain and my bad trading habits (at least in forex) was worth a lot more than the 25% i would have gotten.
....Ok, lunch is over....back to the salt mines....
Uruguay Guy
Another SKF Lunchtime Follow up
I checked in on our friend, SKF, again at lunchtime.
OK. It has done pretty well for itself in the last week. And, this is where it gets challenging. Lots of traders will give you contradictory advice regarding what's an appropriate level of hoggishness to compensate you for the risk (and your wrong plays), while not being so hoggish as to lose your gains.
Since I can't really daytrade other than to check in during my lunch hours, I decided to take about 1/3 of my skf position down (the 1/3 that was living in my retirement accounts which makes it difficult to get into and get out of). I put in the order around 164, but it was an "odd lot" which cleared out at 163 and change (the price action was jumping around quite a bit).
Does this mean that I think the run is over? No, not really.
In the very short run, there maybe more risk of a small snap back than a total washout....However, what I didn't see...even as the market was going parabolic (down) was a MONSTER spike in the index which measures "volatility". the VIX.
The VIX was at 25 and change.....it is usually over 30 when people are getting really panicky and dumping things left and right....which is the precursor for a total crash...and importantly, a washout that can lead to a whipsaw rebound.
So the long and short of it?
If you got into SKF as financials were breaking down (again) you got a nice 20 point run in a couple/few days. Is it over? Probably not. Should you take profits? Depends on your goals for this trade. In my retirement account, I'd been in since much lower and it had met my short term goals, so I took it down.
The rest, although it is probably a little "overbought" (meaning financials could be oversold) i want to see some fundamental change in their plight before I get too anxious to walk away from the trade.
happy trading,
Uruguay Guy
OK. It has done pretty well for itself in the last week. And, this is where it gets challenging. Lots of traders will give you contradictory advice regarding what's an appropriate level of hoggishness to compensate you for the risk (and your wrong plays), while not being so hoggish as to lose your gains.
Since I can't really daytrade other than to check in during my lunch hours, I decided to take about 1/3 of my skf position down (the 1/3 that was living in my retirement accounts which makes it difficult to get into and get out of). I put in the order around 164, but it was an "odd lot" which cleared out at 163 and change (the price action was jumping around quite a bit).
Does this mean that I think the run is over? No, not really.
In the very short run, there maybe more risk of a small snap back than a total washout....However, what I didn't see...even as the market was going parabolic (down) was a MONSTER spike in the index which measures "volatility". the VIX.
The VIX was at 25 and change.....it is usually over 30 when people are getting really panicky and dumping things left and right....which is the precursor for a total crash...and importantly, a washout that can lead to a whipsaw rebound.
So the long and short of it?
If you got into SKF as financials were breaking down (again) you got a nice 20 point run in a couple/few days. Is it over? Probably not. Should you take profits? Depends on your goals for this trade. In my retirement account, I'd been in since much lower and it had met my short term goals, so I took it down.
The rest, although it is probably a little "overbought" (meaning financials could be oversold) i want to see some fundamental change in their plight before I get too anxious to walk away from the trade.
happy trading,
Uruguay Guy
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
SKF - Lunchtime Followup
I just broke for lunch and checked on the price action for SKF (double short US Financials). I'm not following the news well enough to know what sparked the "comeback" -- but it was a bit predictable, eh?
I never thought I would say this, but when markets are as "manipulated" as they are, it really doesn't make sense to trade fundamentals in the short term.
You have better luck with tea-leaves, yak entrails, star charts, and yes, even technical analysis.
I don't have any better idea of what comes next than anyone else. But I would say this....if there was indeed a "stick save" (or rumor of such) that saved teh financials for now...If I can figure it out, so can everyone else.
I would say that the "gig" is about up. The next time they test the lows, they will fall. End of story. Trade accordingly. If you're interested in trading it, but aren't sure how, SKF is a (volatile) way to do it with no time decay (options) and limited downside (unlike shorts) but you have to be confident that things won't get so bad that there will be counterparty risk since SKF is a product of derivatives.
UruguayGuy
Monday, June 23, 2008
SKF
SKF (double short US financials) is setting up to test new highs.
Click on and take a look at the simple line chart i included as an image here.
Notice that the price is following the volume. Now that the double short is breaching 140 it is in rarified air. The financials are clearly breaking down to new lows.
What will be VERY VERY interesting to see is if the Federal Reserve, Congress, President, Banks themselves, Treasury Department, BOE, Chinese, Pope or *someone* can engineer another "sticksave" to keep the bottom from falling out on these.
*If they can*, what we are going to be looking for is another "smaller cup" to the right of the existing "cup", accompanied by lower volume at the bottom of the cup.
THEN, if we see that and another ramp toward 140 the breakout will be a classic "cup and handle" (aka, an "inverted, inverted cup and handle" :) ). Right now we just have a "cup" -- which isn't a terrible formation with the curved bottom, but statistically (supposedly) not as "predictive" as the venerated cup and handle.
go cool,
UruguayGuy
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Uruguay Real Estate
Uruguay Real Estate
It's been said before, but I'll say it again -- Uruguay will probably not see the kind of declines being seen in the US -- at least not right away.
The reason?
Mortgage Debt in Uruguay
While not unheard of, it's pretty rare. Only very recently have banks started to dip their toes back in the water. And, most famously, it is the bank 'Banco de la Republica Oriental de Uruguay' (BROU) that has the explicit (i believe) backing of the central bank of Uruguay that has begun offering loans in particular situations.
However, these are not the kind of high-risk loans that we saw in other parts of the world in the first part of this decade. They don't have to. There is little to no competition. The LTV, or loan to value, scores are pretty conservative and they are being made primarily to people who have nearly guaranteed lifetime employment through government and quasi-governmental agencies here. Could these peoples' employment and income prospects change? Of course. But one has to rate the risk as "low" compared with the turbulent employment markets up north....at least for now :)
Price of Homes in Uruguay
All that said, buying a house in the city of Montevideo or nicer parts of Punta del Este is still much much too expensive for the average Uruguayan to afford -- even on dual incomes. That is a problem. Because either the price of homes must be supported by an outside source -- foreign incomes, governement money, multi-nationals, expats, and foreign government money -- or they must revert to an affordable level as well.
Buying a House in Uruguay
Because of this divergence in where the "average" Uruguay Real Estate buyer derives his income or wealth, it's pretty difficult to talk about "one market" in Uruguay -- even in a country this small with only 3.5 million inhabitants.
The Interior
The Interior of Uruguay is anyplace away from the coastline. The drivers are much less reliant on expat, foreign influx, multinational buyers and domestic government and much more reliant on farming.
The price of homes in the interior will probably be driven primarily by the availability of borrorwed money and the price of Uruguayan beef (and other ranching and farming exports) and availability of open and available markets for what it is the interior produces. Since lots of Uruguayan campos feed their cattle primarily grass, they've been spared some of the incredible inflation in feed costs. However, all of the other inputs are apparently skyrocketing and Uruguay still has to ship its cattle a long ways to reach the North American, European, or Asian markets.
Montevideo Real Estate
As I said earlier, montevideo real estate is out of reach of the "average" Uruguayan's income level. However, many of the inhabitants of Montevideo live comfortably OVER the average income of the typical Uruguayan. In addition, a much larger percentage of the higher paid governament and large multinational employees work, earn, spend, invest and live in the Uruguayan capitol.
Punta del Este Real Estate
Punta del Este Real Estate -- I have to admit to being no expert on Punta del Este. However, here is my general take. It's become a very large beach resort community. Very few (actually) off season inhabitants live in punta del este year around relative to the size of it's January visitors.
That said, a large large number of visitors there have vacation homes either in the form of apartments, or entire houses. Many of the residences owned by your "typical" Uruguayan are also investment properties for at least part of the holiday (summer) season. Rates for "nice" rentals are in extremely high demand, not just from Uruguayans, but also many Brasilians, and Argentinians come from southern Brasil and Buenos Aires to enjoy Uruguay's beaches, casinos, nonstop night life, and relative safety. Rental rates for the two busiest months of high season can nearly cover the entire cost of maintaining the property for the year....Which is good because after summer ends, demand and asking prices nosedive and vacancies soar.
At this point Punta del Este is in the process of reaching critical mass, where a good portion of its visitors are from somewhere else in the summer. Financial problems impacting European's willingness to take winter vacations, or international tensions with brasil or argentina effecting travel across the Uruguayan border can slow Punta del Este's momentum, but probably only slightly for now.
Uruguay Real Estate Agents
As an expat, or foreigner looking at Uruguay real estate most experienced players will tell you that it is "caveat emptor". Real Estate agents have no formal licensing process and so honesty and disclosure and moral compasses will run the gamut among the agents you are likely to run across.
The transaction costs will run you in the neighborhood of 10%, and the fact that there is no real "MLS", (multiple listing service), and no central repository of closing prices available to the public (that I'm aware of) it can make price discovery a bit challenging.
Unfortunately, if you are newbie here, you are going to have to work with *someone* so pick your poison. It's probably wise though to follow the advice of people that have gone before you and "never trust anything your realtor says". That is not to say that they are intentionally lying to you, but when it gets into more complicated matters like easements and land use restrictions it may be that they just don't know.
For instance I've noticed some lovely stately homes in the neighborhood I live in bordered by 10 story apartment buildings. And, when I say, 'bordered", I mean sharing a wall. How would you like to move in right before that two years of constructions, not to mention sayin "good bye' to the sun. Zoning, for one thing, is a lot more liberal here....just one thing that you're probably not contemplating when you find your new home.
Uruguay Guy
It's been said before, but I'll say it again -- Uruguay will probably not see the kind of declines being seen in the US -- at least not right away.
The reason?
Mortgage Debt in Uruguay
While not unheard of, it's pretty rare. Only very recently have banks started to dip their toes back in the water. And, most famously, it is the bank 'Banco de la Republica Oriental de Uruguay' (BROU) that has the explicit (i believe) backing of the central bank of Uruguay that has begun offering loans in particular situations.
However, these are not the kind of high-risk loans that we saw in other parts of the world in the first part of this decade. They don't have to. There is little to no competition. The LTV, or loan to value, scores are pretty conservative and they are being made primarily to people who have nearly guaranteed lifetime employment through government and quasi-governmental agencies here. Could these peoples' employment and income prospects change? Of course. But one has to rate the risk as "low" compared with the turbulent employment markets up north....at least for now :)
Price of Homes in Uruguay
All that said, buying a house in the city of Montevideo or nicer parts of Punta del Este is still much much too expensive for the average Uruguayan to afford -- even on dual incomes. That is a problem. Because either the price of homes must be supported by an outside source -- foreign incomes, governement money, multi-nationals, expats, and foreign government money -- or they must revert to an affordable level as well.
Buying a House in Uruguay
Because of this divergence in where the "average" Uruguay Real Estate buyer derives his income or wealth, it's pretty difficult to talk about "one market" in Uruguay -- even in a country this small with only 3.5 million inhabitants.
The Interior
The Interior of Uruguay is anyplace away from the coastline. The drivers are much less reliant on expat, foreign influx, multinational buyers and domestic government and much more reliant on farming.
The price of homes in the interior will probably be driven primarily by the availability of borrorwed money and the price of Uruguayan beef (and other ranching and farming exports) and availability of open and available markets for what it is the interior produces. Since lots of Uruguayan campos feed their cattle primarily grass, they've been spared some of the incredible inflation in feed costs. However, all of the other inputs are apparently skyrocketing and Uruguay still has to ship its cattle a long ways to reach the North American, European, or Asian markets.
Montevideo Real Estate
As I said earlier, montevideo real estate is out of reach of the "average" Uruguayan's income level. However, many of the inhabitants of Montevideo live comfortably OVER the average income of the typical Uruguayan. In addition, a much larger percentage of the higher paid governament and large multinational employees work, earn, spend, invest and live in the Uruguayan capitol.
Punta del Este Real Estate
Punta del Este Real Estate -- I have to admit to being no expert on Punta del Este. However, here is my general take. It's become a very large beach resort community. Very few (actually) off season inhabitants live in punta del este year around relative to the size of it's January visitors.
That said, a large large number of visitors there have vacation homes either in the form of apartments, or entire houses. Many of the residences owned by your "typical" Uruguayan are also investment properties for at least part of the holiday (summer) season. Rates for "nice" rentals are in extremely high demand, not just from Uruguayans, but also many Brasilians, and Argentinians come from southern Brasil and Buenos Aires to enjoy Uruguay's beaches, casinos, nonstop night life, and relative safety. Rental rates for the two busiest months of high season can nearly cover the entire cost of maintaining the property for the year....Which is good because after summer ends, demand and asking prices nosedive and vacancies soar.
At this point Punta del Este is in the process of reaching critical mass, where a good portion of its visitors are from somewhere else in the summer. Financial problems impacting European's willingness to take winter vacations, or international tensions with brasil or argentina effecting travel across the Uruguayan border can slow Punta del Este's momentum, but probably only slightly for now.
Uruguay Real Estate Agents
As an expat, or foreigner looking at Uruguay real estate most experienced players will tell you that it is "caveat emptor". Real Estate agents have no formal licensing process and so honesty and disclosure and moral compasses will run the gamut among the agents you are likely to run across.
The transaction costs will run you in the neighborhood of 10%, and the fact that there is no real "MLS", (multiple listing service), and no central repository of closing prices available to the public (that I'm aware of) it can make price discovery a bit challenging.
Unfortunately, if you are newbie here, you are going to have to work with *someone* so pick your poison. It's probably wise though to follow the advice of people that have gone before you and "never trust anything your realtor says". That is not to say that they are intentionally lying to you, but when it gets into more complicated matters like easements and land use restrictions it may be that they just don't know.
For instance I've noticed some lovely stately homes in the neighborhood I live in bordered by 10 story apartment buildings. And, when I say, 'bordered", I mean sharing a wall. How would you like to move in right before that two years of constructions, not to mention sayin "good bye' to the sun. Zoning, for one thing, is a lot more liberal here....just one thing that you're probably not contemplating when you find your new home.
Uruguay Guy
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Sia Furler
a change of pace in the wake of fuBarrio's death.
Today, Sia Furler. A towering talent.
granted i'm in uruguay, but why is it that i know that paris hilton and lindsey lohan have released albums and i never heard of this girl until the other day surfin' youtube?
anyways, here is her signing some 4/6 time blues live in a radio studio.
the clip is a little squirrely because it starts with the end of the previous song in her set. hang in until the 1 min mark to see if she's your "cup o' tea". enjoy
U.G.
Today, Sia Furler. A towering talent.
granted i'm in uruguay, but why is it that i know that paris hilton and lindsey lohan have released albums and i never heard of this girl until the other day surfin' youtube?
anyways, here is her signing some 4/6 time blues live in a radio studio.
the clip is a little squirrely because it starts with the end of the previous song in her set. hang in until the 1 min mark to see if she's your "cup o' tea". enjoy
U.G.
Sunday, June 08, 2008
A Beautiful Soul, A fUgly Mug
Montevideo, 8 June 2008, AP Newswire - Mourners remembered fuBarrio today in a ceremony that characterized fuBarrio as a "beautiful soul"
Many of fuBarrio's friends and family - typically reclusive characters - were in attendance.
fuBarrio's only son, pictured below gave a stirring eulogy, that in typical fasshion, glossed over fuBarrio's many and varied flaws.
In addition, fuBarrio's daughter regaled fuBarrio's generosity. She even recalls when he accidentally tipped over 7% at a restaurant due to a calcuation error...He realized it while in the parking lot and reluctantly decided not to go back in and demand change.
fuBarrio's friend, clyde, amused guests at the reception afterwards when he did an impression of fuBarrio after going into diabetic shock after consuming too many twinkies in a manic binge after Ben Bernancke used tax payer money to back bad debts of Bear Stearns for JP Morgan
Among the guests were well known stars of screen and cinema, including pepe, whose likeness has been used for many movies including the gremlins.
Many of fuBarrio's friends and family - typically reclusive characters - were in attendance.
fuBarrio's only son, pictured below gave a stirring eulogy, that in typical fasshion, glossed over fuBarrio's many and varied flaws.
In addition, fuBarrio's daughter regaled fuBarrio's generosity. She even recalls when he accidentally tipped over 7% at a restaurant due to a calcuation error...He realized it while in the parking lot and reluctantly decided not to go back in and demand change.
fuBarrio's friend, clyde, amused guests at the reception afterwards when he did an impression of fuBarrio after going into diabetic shock after consuming too many twinkies in a manic binge after Ben Bernancke used tax payer money to back bad debts of Bear Stearns for JP Morgan
Among the guests were well known stars of screen and cinema, including pepe, whose likeness has been used for many movies including the gremlins.
fuBarrio's brother who despises crowds, people, flying and ceremonies made the sacrifice to make a special trip out
Fubarrio's uncle Ted drank a little too much of the Patricia Stout and spent the majority of the reception "sleeping it off".
The importance of the event even brought out fuBarrio's boss, who admits to hating "these kinds of get togethers"
Most guests seemed unwilling to discuss the suspicious nature surrounding fuBarrio's death, or were feigning ignorance as to the circumstances surrounding his untimely demise.
While police have not been able to rule out "foul play" surrounding the death of fuBarrio for now it is being attributed to natural causes.
"Look, that mutt had a big mouth, and an unforgettably fugly mug. That's not going to make you a lot of friends, so it's a little early to rule anything out" said Ernest Bauman, the detective in charge of the investigation.
Saturday, June 07, 2008
fuBarrio Services Scheduled for Sunday
Services for the enigmatic "devil dog" known as fuBarrio have been scheduled for this Sunday. At the request of the public health department, it will be a closed casket ceremony.
"Hey, there are going to be little children there," the Montevideo Director of Health and Human Services was reported as saying. "I mean, there's no reason to traumatize people."
Curiously, fuBarrio reportedly has never looked better. "I don't think I've ever seen him so peaceful. I guess it took his death to release his twisted view on life out of that poor corpse," Golden Lotus, his long-time caretaker, said during a press conference.
At the request of "conspiracy theorists" worldwide who followed fuBarrio's paranoid rants, authorities have not ruled out 'foul play' in the death of fuBarrio. A complete autopsy has been ordered however, results have been delayed after the medical examiner assigned the fuBarrio case quit under protest of inhumane working conditions.
Thursday, June 05, 2008
FuBarrio Dies
AP Montevideo, Uruguay - fuBarrio, blogger and notable bigmouth, cheapskate, and undisciplined trader passed away on Tuesday after a months long illness friends and family reported.
fuBarrio had been on death watch ever since Hillary Clinton lost a string of disappointing Democratic primaries in the US presidential election.
No stranger to controversy, fuBarrio will probably be remembered best for his acerbic wit, his utter unwillingness to use spellcheck, and a penchant for saying really stupid opinionated things. While not noted for accomplishing anything in his short twisted miserable life, fuBarrio lobbied tirelessly for the abolition of the US Federal Reserve, a return to sound money policies, and the irradication of pop artists who don't write their own music. Needless to say, the fight for his dream will continue on by those he inspired after his passing.
Friends and family (both of them) have tentatively scheduled private services on Sunday for those wishing to celebrate the life and times of fuBarrio. Anyone wishing to honor fuBarrio's memory may make a donation to the Hostess, Dr's against Diabeties, Foundation in fuBarrio's name.
fuBarrio had been on death watch ever since Hillary Clinton lost a string of disappointing Democratic primaries in the US presidential election.
No stranger to controversy, fuBarrio will probably be remembered best for his acerbic wit, his utter unwillingness to use spellcheck, and a penchant for saying really stupid opinionated things. While not noted for accomplishing anything in his short twisted miserable life, fuBarrio lobbied tirelessly for the abolition of the US Federal Reserve, a return to sound money policies, and the irradication of pop artists who don't write their own music. Needless to say, the fight for his dream will continue on by those he inspired after his passing.
Friends and family (both of them) have tentatively scheduled private services on Sunday for those wishing to celebrate the life and times of fuBarrio. Anyone wishing to honor fuBarrio's memory may make a donation to the Hostess, Dr's against Diabeties, Foundation in fuBarrio's name.
Hey 19
Way back when
In two thousand-seven
....etc etc.
ok, i think the line is actually "sixty-seven"
They are buying dollars for 19 pesos even at a bunch of the cambios yesterday...in fact at some of the cambios the spread is an entire peso....5% spread between the bid and ask -- good grief -- we're not talking about airport exchange houses. I'm talking about downtown.
So, what does that mean? Well, since I got here, and the exchange between the US dollar and the Peso was around 24, it's down a bit over 20%.
Since the "crash" when it went into the 30's...hmmm....
The really shocking thing is the last little move took place at a time when the dollar was strengthening against gold and some of the other euro and asian currencies. Perhaps south america is gettin ready to extend its move to the upside.
Really aggravates and already inflationary situation for expats living off of US dollars here.
Ciao for now
In two thousand-seven
....etc etc.
(with apologies to Steely Dan)
ok, i think the line is actually "sixty-seven"
They are buying dollars for 19 pesos even at a bunch of the cambios yesterday...in fact at some of the cambios the spread is an entire peso....5% spread between the bid and ask -- good grief -- we're not talking about airport exchange houses. I'm talking about downtown.
So, what does that mean? Well, since I got here, and the exchange between the US dollar and the Peso was around 24, it's down a bit over 20%.
Since the "crash" when it went into the 30's...hmmm....
The really shocking thing is the last little move took place at a time when the dollar was strengthening against gold and some of the other euro and asian currencies. Perhaps south america is gettin ready to extend its move to the upside.
Really aggravates and already inflationary situation for expats living off of US dollars here.
Ciao for now
Saturday, May 31, 2008
"7 Minute Abs" and the Offshore Bank Account
(i originally wrote this post over a month ago, but i've been struggling with getting images to upload to blogger....let's see if i can figure out how to make the post date today now that i finally have the images uploaded.)
We even registered some URLs like 8minuteoffshore and eightminuteoffshore....We haven't used them yet, but we do use, "Get an Offshore Account in 8 Minutes." in a lot of our google ads and on our homepage.
Taking a page out of the "There's Something About Mary" psycho-hitchhiker playbook, mortgage and banking giant Washington Mutual one-upped me and went with this campaign :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
In case you've been living in a cave the last 15 years, there was a movie called "There is Something About Mary" that came out in the 90's.
For those that were living in a cave, or avoid pop culture like the plague, there is one of many somewhat disturbingly funny scenes where the protagonist picks up a hitchhiker on a boring road trip from R.I. to Florida.
While striking up a conversation, the hitchhiker tells the protagonist about his brilliant new business idea.....to strategically undercut the somewhat famous and successful exercise video, "8 Minute Abs"
His idea? "7 Minute Abs"
("and if for any reason your unsatisfied, we'll give you the eight minute, for free")
Anyways, in my "day job" we realized that one of the impedences to moving money offshore, or opening an offshore bank account was the incredibly complicated and hassle filled procedure for doing so. So we created an "idea" -- an online application process that started you through the process of applying and getting your documentation together.
For those that were living in a cave, or avoid pop culture like the plague, there is one of many somewhat disturbingly funny scenes where the protagonist picks up a hitchhiker on a boring road trip from R.I. to Florida.
While striking up a conversation, the hitchhiker tells the protagonist about his brilliant new business idea.....to strategically undercut the somewhat famous and successful exercise video, "8 Minute Abs"
His idea? "7 Minute Abs"
("and if for any reason your unsatisfied, we'll give you the eight minute, for free")
Anyways, in my "day job" we realized that one of the impedences to moving money offshore, or opening an offshore bank account was the incredibly complicated and hassle filled procedure for doing so. So we created an "idea" -- an online application process that started you through the process of applying and getting your documentation together.
We even registered some URLs like 8minuteoffshore and eightminuteoffshore....We haven't used them yet, but we do use, "Get an Offshore Account in 8 Minutes." in a lot of our google ads and on our homepage.
Taking a page out of the "There's Something About Mary" psycho-hitchhiker playbook, mortgage and banking giant Washington Mutual one-upped me and went with this campaign :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
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