Sunday, August 17, 2008

short term bounce, long in tooth

ok the short term bounce i called about a month ago didn't have the washout confirmation other than intraday. so unless you're an active trader you may have missed the day but if you've been bullish on us markets and us dollar and short all the commodities the last month you've probably faired pretty well.....there were a ton of entry points.

now, it's going to get a little trickier. :)

we've got some conflicting opinions out there, however the ones i tend to believe think that there is a setup approaching for something potentially ugly in the markets.


that said, "there's always a bull market somewhere." some "credible" models put an oil temporary bottom between 100-110 per barrel (back when it was still in the 130's). we are very close to that now. a move below 110 could provide some of the "fuel" for a move solidly into the 1300's for the s&p.

a subsequent rally back into the 120's for oil *could* be the straw that sent the markets down. Right now, obviously, it's all conjecture, but the reason i'm wasting digital ink on this is that the people who have been relatively accurate in modeling the markets moves the last couple of months model the next bearish move as bein significant enough to be something you want to avoid.

time will tell if they are right.

if i have time tomorrow, i'll outline a little bit of the "bullish" case going forward which would be the counter argument to the technicians who use elliott waves to predict price movements.


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