Tuesday, June 24, 2008

SKF - Lunchtime Followup

I just broke for lunch and checked on the price action for SKF (double short US Financials). I'm not following the news well enough to know what sparked the "comeback" -- but it was a bit predictable, eh?

I never thought I would say this, but when markets are as "manipulated" as they are, it really doesn't make sense to trade fundamentals in the short term.

You have better luck with tea-leaves, yak entrails, star charts, and yes, even technical analysis.

I don't have any better idea of what comes next than anyone else. But I would say this....if there was indeed a "stick save" (or rumor of such) that saved teh financials for now...If I can figure it out, so can everyone else.

I would say that the "gig" is about up. The next time they test the lows, they will fall. End of story. Trade accordingly. If you're interested in trading it, but aren't sure how, SKF is a (volatile) way to do it with no time decay (options) and limited downside (unlike shorts) but you have to be confident that things won't get so bad that there will be counterparty risk since SKF is a product of derivatives.


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