Fed Slashed Rates by 75 Basis Points in a "suprise" move before the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday. The Fed said it was cutting the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, to 3.5 percent, down by three-fourths of a percentage point from 4.25 percent
Wow....to see how suprised I was see my last post.
I was working this morning, but luckily my work day in uruguay starts three hours before the market opens.
During a break in the action I took a lunch break and traded (small) on my convictions and made (a little) coin.
I went long on SSO (canadian silver mining stock) at 30 and change and after it went up a couple of points dumped it. of course, it has continued to go up since i dumped it but i didn't have time to watch it today (and didn't even know at the time that BB had dropped the rate - or announced a press conference - or however he telegraphed this).
I dropped my sds (s&p double short) which bets the s&p will fall at the gap down on the open.
BUT, like i said in my previous posting i'm looking for a chance to reenter that trade - asap. This is just one of those markets I don't like being "not short" :)
Ok...lunch break is almost over and it's time to get back to my day job. The traders have to be loving this volatility....especially when it's so friggin' predictable!
ciao,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
I love the smell of a bailout in the morning....
....it smells like......inflation!
for anyone who wasn't watching the markets this last week and especially over the 3 day holiday in the US....
aoooga a ooooo ga....DIVE! DIVE!
utter pandamonium it seems.
the reality is that given the magnitude of the runup, to be down 20% in hong kong, shanghai, or mubai is really not that big of a deal.
however, the magnitude of the decline in the EU got my attention.
and, with the "bailout" proposal being bantied about by bernanke/bush/paulson/congress/2008 candidates getting very little play from the markets i suspect that the heavy guns will come out on tuesday a.m. in the US markets.
what does that mean?
one of two things:
1.) "plunge protection team" interference in the futures market and maybe the market for securities themselves. if you don't know what the plunge protection team is google it or the working group on markets.....you don't need a tinfoil hat anymore to suspect that the markets are manipulated by government forces. everyone pretty much admits it these days.
2,) the market will be allowed to 'gap down' and run for an hour or two and then bernanke will announce a "suprise" early cut to the interest rates, the market will spike up and create a massive short squeeze rally.
...sigh....the kind of volatility that's promised tomorrow almost makes me want to buckle up and jump in for a frenetic day of trading.
however tempting the promise of making and/or losing my annual salary on a days worth of bets is not enough to get me back in the saddle tomorrow. i have a "day job" that demands my attention -- so i'll have to stay content to sit in my longer term holds and let the currents push me where they may.
ciao,
fuBarrio
for anyone who wasn't watching the markets this last week and especially over the 3 day holiday in the US....
aoooga a ooooo ga....DIVE! DIVE!
utter pandamonium it seems.
the reality is that given the magnitude of the runup, to be down 20% in hong kong, shanghai, or mubai is really not that big of a deal.
however, the magnitude of the decline in the EU got my attention.
and, with the "bailout" proposal being bantied about by bernanke/bush/paulson/congress/2008 candidates getting very little play from the markets i suspect that the heavy guns will come out on tuesday a.m. in the US markets.
what does that mean?
one of two things:
1.) "plunge protection team" interference in the futures market and maybe the market for securities themselves. if you don't know what the plunge protection team is google it or the working group on markets.....you don't need a tinfoil hat anymore to suspect that the markets are manipulated by government forces. everyone pretty much admits it these days.
2,) the market will be allowed to 'gap down' and run for an hour or two and then bernanke will announce a "suprise" early cut to the interest rates, the market will spike up and create a massive short squeeze rally.
...sigh....the kind of volatility that's promised tomorrow almost makes me want to buckle up and jump in for a frenetic day of trading.
however tempting the promise of making and/or losing my annual salary on a days worth of bets is not enough to get me back in the saddle tomorrow. i have a "day job" that demands my attention -- so i'll have to stay content to sit in my longer term holds and let the currents push me where they may.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Hillary (O)bomb(a)s in Iowa
Well,
My fat mouth *may* have finally caught up with me. Obama cleaned Hillary's clock in Iowa -- jeez even that populist farce Edwards beat her out.
Well, rather that get all hopeful that Americans have wised up to the ways of the Clintons, or put much stock in a few thousand farmers, I'm going to wait until a few more states have finished their primaries.
If you'll remember, fuBarrio made 'drunken proclamation' (too lazy to find the post) where I bet me "life" Hillary would find a way to subvert the Democratic process and get herself nominated.....In a more sober moment later, I decided that I would stop bloggin under the fuBarrio nameplate forever if Edwards or Obama were able to nudge her out.
...who knows....it's definately looking more likely this week than last. But I don't want to get too excited yet....
Now, what'll really be interesting to watch in NH (other than the dems) will be Ron Paul's support and whether or not the mainstream media acknowledges it or not.
ciao,
fuBarrio
My fat mouth *may* have finally caught up with me. Obama cleaned Hillary's clock in Iowa -- jeez even that populist farce Edwards beat her out.
Well, rather that get all hopeful that Americans have wised up to the ways of the Clintons, or put much stock in a few thousand farmers, I'm going to wait until a few more states have finished their primaries.
If you'll remember, fuBarrio made 'drunken proclamation' (too lazy to find the post) where I bet me "life" Hillary would find a way to subvert the Democratic process and get herself nominated.....In a more sober moment later, I decided that I would stop bloggin under the fuBarrio nameplate forever if Edwards or Obama were able to nudge her out.
...who knows....it's definately looking more likely this week than last. But I don't want to get too excited yet....
Now, what'll really be interesting to watch in NH (other than the dems) will be Ron Paul's support and whether or not the mainstream media acknowledges it or not.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, December 31, 2007
2007 - A Fubar'ed Financial Year in Review
Well, I spent large portions of 2006 and 2007 telling you what I thought would happen in financial markets this year.
I'm going to attempt to review some of those calls here and critique what we got right and what we screwed up royally.
1.) US residential housing would fall HARD
check
2.) Bank failures would be more prevalent
check -- however, forces are fighting hard to liquidate markets to keep insolvent lenders alive
3.) The reliquification would create a drop in the value of the US dollar
check
4.) Commodities would benefit from the dollar crunch, Gold out of credit tightness and fear
check
5,) Uranium prices would dip in summer and then reignite in fall
check
6,) Uranium juniors would be a good bet in fall through spring 2008
NOT...in fact junior miners across the board have been hit hard with some (very few) notable exceptions.
7.) financials were ripe for a fall from grace
check. in fact, we've already seen quite a few BIG names taking on serious water. expect more of this as the depth of the fraud and excesses becomes better known in 2008.
8.) The broader market was ripe for a fall at Dow 13,000
NOT. I reiterated my call again at 14,000 and it seems to be under significant pressure, but so far Sovereign wealth fund investments in financials (classic knife catchers, imo) and a falling dollar has meant that dollar holders are looking for something to buy. This has kept the market bouncing between 13 and 14k.
The broader market has gone basically nowhere since summer.
What my "call" for 2008?
Not nearly as exciting or risky as my calls for 2007. more of the same.
As 2007 turned out I had very little time for trading and just stuck (mostly) with my macro trends (dollar down, stuff up). Trend following is the most predictably profitable trade, and calling the turn (down) in the broader markets is where i lost the most money in 2007.
Calling a "turn" in a market is not for the faint of heart or weak of pocketbook. If I'd had more time for trading I would have had more time for research and been leaning pretty heavily (short) on subprime lenders. But, I didn't, and probably won't in 2008 either. So, it will be an exercise in trying "not to lose" rather than winning.
"Trying not to lose" is a little like the NFL's "prevent defense" when I try it. Not very successful. It is something where I have a VERY spotty record, so it will be interesting to see if I'm able to figure things out without getting washed out.
Good luck to all, and a prosperous new year.
ciao,
fuBarrio
I'm going to attempt to review some of those calls here and critique what we got right and what we screwed up royally.
1.) US residential housing would fall HARD
check
2.) Bank failures would be more prevalent
check -- however, forces are fighting hard to liquidate markets to keep insolvent lenders alive
3.) The reliquification would create a drop in the value of the US dollar
check
4.) Commodities would benefit from the dollar crunch, Gold out of credit tightness and fear
check
5,) Uranium prices would dip in summer and then reignite in fall
check
6,) Uranium juniors would be a good bet in fall through spring 2008
NOT...in fact junior miners across the board have been hit hard with some (very few) notable exceptions.
7.) financials were ripe for a fall from grace
check. in fact, we've already seen quite a few BIG names taking on serious water. expect more of this as the depth of the fraud and excesses becomes better known in 2008.
8.) The broader market was ripe for a fall at Dow 13,000
NOT. I reiterated my call again at 14,000 and it seems to be under significant pressure, but so far Sovereign wealth fund investments in financials (classic knife catchers, imo) and a falling dollar has meant that dollar holders are looking for something to buy. This has kept the market bouncing between 13 and 14k.
The broader market has gone basically nowhere since summer.
What my "call" for 2008?
Not nearly as exciting or risky as my calls for 2007. more of the same.
As 2007 turned out I had very little time for trading and just stuck (mostly) with my macro trends (dollar down, stuff up). Trend following is the most predictably profitable trade, and calling the turn (down) in the broader markets is where i lost the most money in 2007.
Calling a "turn" in a market is not for the faint of heart or weak of pocketbook. If I'd had more time for trading I would have had more time for research and been leaning pretty heavily (short) on subprime lenders. But, I didn't, and probably won't in 2008 either. So, it will be an exercise in trying "not to lose" rather than winning.
"Trying not to lose" is a little like the NFL's "prevent defense" when I try it. Not very successful. It is something where I have a VERY spotty record, so it will be interesting to see if I'm able to figure things out without getting washed out.
Good luck to all, and a prosperous new year.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, December 17, 2007
Blogs About Uruguay
Tired of reading the same lame crap in the my Blog About Uruguay?
Here is a semi-complete list of Blogs about Uruguay from other points of view:
A Cup of Mate a Day...: http://acupofmate.blogspot.com/
A Girl And Guy In Uruguay: http://adamleandra.blogspot.com/
A Maverick's Odyssey: http://www.amavericko.com/
A Year In Uruguay: http://www.chuckstull.blogspot.com/
Alyssa In Uruguay: http://alyssainuruguay.blogspot.com/
Amargo y Dulce: http://bittersweetinuruguay.blogspot.com/
Arrancopelito: http://arrancopelito.blogspot.com/
Beneath the Southern Cross...A Family's Adventures in Uruguay: http://uruguayadventures.blogspot.com/
Christopher's Tales: http://christopherstales.blogspot.com/
Coastal Uruguay: http://coastaluruguay.com/
Dustin Goes To Uruguay: http://dustinsaldarriaga.blogspot.com/
El Diablo Tranquilo Comes Together: http://www.eldiablotranquilo.com/blog/
Elli's Story: http://ellijelli.blogspot.com/
From Uruguay: http://www.from-uruguay.com/
Las Alas del Alba: http://thewingsofthedawn.blogspot.com/
Latitude -30º -35ºS MVD - UY: http://accrux.blogspot.com/
Laurin In Uruguay: http://laurinariail.com/
Learning Uruguay: http://urufish.wordpress.com/
Lessons @ UY: http://a-philosophical.blogspot.com/
Living In Montevideo: http://livinginmontevideo.blogspot.com/
Odeliza: http://www.odeliza.com/
Pde-uy.com/wordpress/: http://kzlv.com/wordpress/
Place No Limits: http://placenolimits.blogspot.com/
The Beautiful Changes: http://www.fionamarie-site.blogspot.com/
The Latin Americanist: http://ourlatinamerica.blogspot.com/
The Seven C's: http://cleanorganizedandontime.blogspot.com/
This Is Uruguay: http://guay.wordpress.com/
Uruguay Adventure: http://adventureathand.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Blog: http://blog.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay Dreaming: http://uruguaydreaming.com/
Uruguay Guy: http://uruguayguy.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Living: http://www.uruguayliving.com/
Uruguay News Blog: http://news.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay News and Views: http://uruguaynews.blogspot.com/
Uruguay's Wildlife & Natural Sanctuaries: http://uruguay1.blogspot.com/
Viviendo en Uruguay: http://tafw.blogspot.com/
Waiting on the Master: http://worldstoosmall.blogspot.com/
Zest for Life: http://jules-zestforlife.blogspot.com/
and, just added, Teckno Yanqui http://tekno-yanqui.blogspot.com
List compiled by Thorn and folks at sociedadsouthron, uruguay forums
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
Here is a semi-complete list of Blogs about Uruguay from other points of view:
A Cup of Mate a Day...: http://acupofmate.blogspot.com/
A Girl And Guy In Uruguay: http://adamleandra.blogspot.com/
A Maverick's Odyssey: http://www.amavericko.com/
A Year In Uruguay: http://www.chuckstull.blogspot.com/
Alyssa In Uruguay: http://alyssainuruguay.blogspot.com/
Amargo y Dulce: http://bittersweetinuruguay.blogspot.com/
Arrancopelito: http://arrancopelito.blogspot.com/
Beneath the Southern Cross...A Family's Adventures in Uruguay: http://uruguayadventures.blogspot.com/
Christopher's Tales: http://christopherstales.blogspot.com/
Coastal Uruguay: http://coastaluruguay.com/
Dustin Goes To Uruguay: http://dustinsaldarriaga.blogspot.com/
El Diablo Tranquilo Comes Together: http://www.eldiablotranquilo.com/blog/
Elli's Story: http://ellijelli.blogspot.com/
From Uruguay: http://www.from-uruguay.com/
Las Alas del Alba: http://thewingsofthedawn.blogspot.com/
Latitude -30º -35ºS MVD - UY: http://accrux.blogspot.com/
Laurin In Uruguay: http://laurinariail.com/
Learning Uruguay: http://urufish.wordpress.com/
Lessons @ UY: http://a-philosophical.blogspot.com/
Living In Montevideo: http://livinginmontevideo.blogspot.com/
Odeliza: http://www.odeliza.com/
Pde-uy.com/wordpress/: http://kzlv.com/wordpress/
Place No Limits: http://placenolimits.blogspot.com/
The Beautiful Changes: http://www.fionamarie-site.blogspot.com/
The Latin Americanist: http://ourlatinamerica.blogspot.com/
The Seven C's: http://cleanorganizedandontime.blogspot.com/
This Is Uruguay: http://guay.wordpress.com/
Uruguay Adventure: http://adventureathand.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Blog: http://blog.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay Dreaming: http://uruguaydreaming.com/
Uruguay Guy: http://uruguayguy.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Living: http://www.uruguayliving.com/
Uruguay News Blog: http://news.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay News and Views: http://uruguaynews.blogspot.com/
Uruguay's Wildlife & Natural Sanctuaries: http://uruguay1.blogspot.com/
Viviendo en Uruguay: http://tafw.blogspot.com/
Waiting on the Master: http://worldstoosmall.blogspot.com/
Zest for Life: http://jules-zestforlife.blogspot.com/
and, just added, Teckno Yanqui http://tekno-yanqui.blogspot.com
List compiled by Thorn and folks at sociedadsouthron, uruguay forums
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
Ron Paul - $6 Million Dollar Man
As you may have surmised, I'm a big Ron Paul fan.
It looks like his Boston Tea Party money bomb is probably going to raise around 6MM today. Of course, things are still too good in the US for someone like Paul to win....It's interesting to see a stat that something like 61% of repubnicans polled said they would *never* vote for Paul.
Good thing they have locked down the primaries to only those that have registered for a given party. Otherwise we might actually change the disasterous course the US is on....
Just another reason why 61% of fuBarrios will *never* vote for a repugnican...or demorat...Be interesting to see how much cash Paul burns through trying to reach unreachable idiots in those early states.....what a collosal boondoggle for the media outlets in iowa and NH ....
ciao,
fuBarrio
It looks like his Boston Tea Party money bomb is probably going to raise around 6MM today. Of course, things are still too good in the US for someone like Paul to win....It's interesting to see a stat that something like 61% of repubnicans polled said they would *never* vote for Paul.
Good thing they have locked down the primaries to only those that have registered for a given party. Otherwise we might actually change the disasterous course the US is on....
Just another reason why 61% of fuBarrios will *never* vote for a repugnican...or demorat...Be interesting to see how much cash Paul burns through trying to reach unreachable idiots in those early states.....what a collosal boondoggle for the media outlets in iowa and NH ....
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Dazed and Confused
It's not just the seasons that are reversed here....it's the academic schedule.
I can almost hear alice cooper playing in the background. Not sure if kids still participate in the end-of-year book burning ritual in the states......but this isn't the states.
Granted, I don't talk to many kids here....and I certainly wouldn't count anyone under 20 as a close acquaintance, but from a distance, the kids in Montevideo always remind me a little of my cousins who went to high school in the late 70's and early 80's in california.
It's not just the mullets or retro-fashion revival, a little bit of it seems to be the laid back attitude....late night partying....occasionally inappropriate "adult-like" behaviour, and the general laissez-faire attitude among the adults with regard to supervision of their kids.....especially during summer break.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Parque Rodo Beach
We took an interesting walk through parque rodo this morning. There was an amazing amount of activity from the top of the park, all the way down to the beach.
A flea market with holiday (prechristmas?) shoppers took up a huge swath of the middle of the park.
Down closer to the water, there were mate sippers, dog walkers,
snoozing old men, and little kids everywhere.
In addition, there were about 50 adults taking part in some Tai Chi direction in the shadow of the Confucious statue....
while techno music pumped out over the lower part of the park from the "W" lounge (who in the heck is listening to techno in a club at 10:30a.m.? :))
We eventually crossed the riverside road and down to the boardwalk and beach. At one of the staircases i noticed a sign that said "animals not allowed". fuBarrio ignored this notice, as did golden lotus and midori (our lab puppy) after seeing a couple of dogs playing in the water and the lifeguard looking on passively.
Midori and Golden Lotus navigated past the girls playing volleyball,
the men playing soccer (futbol) and the sunbathers....... down to the river at low tide, and into the river water. Golden Lotus reported that the water was "quite warm".
Pictures take a while to upload, but over the course of the next few days I'll try to upload a few more here so you can get a flavor for the beautiful day.
Ciao,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
You + US = FUBAR!
oops.
UBS just announced *another* $10B in writedowns??? Blamed bad "subprime" mortgages of course.
holy crap.
anyone remember the good ole days when a "rogue trader" nick leeson lost a "mere" $1.4B and bankrupted Barings, a 233 year old bank?
what's it gonna take before the first of these goliaths get involved in a "take under"?
another couple $10B here and there and that's gonna start to add up to real money :)
...at least until the fed makes it all go away with another rate cut. (that was sacrcasm by the way)
ciao,
fuBarrio
UBS just announced *another* $10B in writedowns??? Blamed bad "subprime" mortgages of course.
holy crap.
anyone remember the good ole days when a "rogue trader" nick leeson lost a "mere" $1.4B and bankrupted Barings, a 233 year old bank?
what's it gonna take before the first of these goliaths get involved in a "take under"?
another couple $10B here and there and that's gonna start to add up to real money :)
...at least until the fed makes it all go away with another rate cut. (that was sacrcasm by the way)
ciao,
fuBarrio
Friday, December 07, 2007
A "Date" that will Live in Infamy
Today is the 4th anniversary of Golden Lotus and fuBarrio's first date.
(uh...oh yeah....and some dudes dropped some bombs on hawaii too)
At the fuBarrio household as you might imagine however, the year 2003 is much more important than 1941.
Dec the 7th each year starts a "murderer's row" of special dates to be remembered and commemorated for fuBarrio culminating either with Golden Lotus's birthday in January or Valentine's day scarcely more than 30 days later.
While maturity and poverty have meant that fuBarrio can step down the financial extravegance of the gifts.....the maturity of the relationship means that he has to put special thought into doing something "special" for each -- anniversary, xmas, new years eve, bday, vday
:)
LUCKILY, now that we live in south america....nice weather outdoors this time of year opens up a new wealth of possibilities. not available when we lived in the north
....(i won't give you all the details of our surf outing on her birthday during a january storm in california....let's just say i'm still coughing up salt water)
Any ideas that can help a bald spotted rabid dog with his quandry can be placed in the comments section or emailed to me.....(and, yes, massive facial reconstructive surgery was contemplated but voted down due to cost and the recovery time would mean i'd miss the westminster kennels prequalifiers)
ciao,
fuBarrio
(uh...oh yeah....and some dudes dropped some bombs on hawaii too)
At the fuBarrio household as you might imagine however, the year 2003 is much more important than 1941.
Dec the 7th each year starts a "murderer's row" of special dates to be remembered and commemorated for fuBarrio culminating either with Golden Lotus's birthday in January or Valentine's day scarcely more than 30 days later.
While maturity and poverty have meant that fuBarrio can step down the financial extravegance of the gifts.....the maturity of the relationship means that he has to put special thought into doing something "special" for each -- anniversary, xmas, new years eve, bday, vday
:)
LUCKILY, now that we live in south america....nice weather outdoors this time of year opens up a new wealth of possibilities. not available when we lived in the north
....(i won't give you all the details of our surf outing on her birthday during a january storm in california....let's just say i'm still coughing up salt water)
Any ideas that can help a bald spotted rabid dog with his quandry can be placed in the comments section or emailed to me.....(and, yes, massive facial reconstructive surgery was contemplated but voted down due to cost and the recovery time would mean i'd miss the westminster kennels prequalifiers)
ciao,
fuBarrio
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Punta Carretas
Punta Carretas is the neighborhood that Golden Lotus and fuBarrio call home. Golden Lotus shot these fotos the other day on a walk to the grocery store.
Golden Lotus seems to be a lot more talented at taking pictures than fuBarrio....must be the opposible thumb ....or the eyes without cataracts...
ciao,fubarrio
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Yellow Lab Puppy
It should be obvious to all by now that Golden Lotus has a soft spot for canines.
After all, she has managed to overlook fubarrio's generally disagreeable temperment and unsettling appearance for all these years.
Let's just say that, unfortunately, fuBarrio is facing his most serious challenge yet to his alpha-dog supremecy....."Midori". Two months old.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Our Accomodations in Brasil - Lexus Ingleses
Here is where we stayed.....I didn't really know anything about if before we got there. It was setup by a travel agent. I guess they aren't too strict on trademark infringement in Brasil yet.
The room included breakfast and dinner. 5 days, four nights, flights from mvd and 50 minute trip to hotel from a/p and back ran about $1000 including taxes and airport charges (ugh)....of course the visas were another $340 -- remember get your brasilian visas up north. they gouge here in montevideo.
The restaurant was ok....the outdoor pool a little lame....the indoor pool looked cloudy/filthy. the location on the beach was awesome, water still a little chilly this far south this time of year....weather was amazing most days....the rooms were "adequate", but not high-end. They seemed like they were outfitted to make it easier to clean the sand out that that guests invariably track in. Each room was actually a suite, and also had a little fridge, plates dishes, cups, silverware, pots/pans and a "hotplate" of sorts for cooking in the rooms.
While the hotel overall wasn't bad, the name "Lexus Ingleses" made me laugh, and I told Golden Lotus that it was more like the "Hyundai Ingleses" :)
That said, of course, it was markedly better looking that this thing down the beach from us.....get a load of the name on the matching boat out front.....fitting since this paintjob is a total nightmare.
Fishermen In Brasil
Some Brasilians Cleaning out their nets on an overcast morning after fishing in Praia Inglesis, Florianopolis, SE Brasil. The seagulls are circling around waiting for the droppings...
fB
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Florianopolis, Brasil
after almost a year and a half of talking about it, golden lotus and i finally went to brasil for a short (5 day) trip.
the country is huge, and we didn't see much of even the town we visited, but i'll give you some general impressions here and follow it up with some pictures in a later post:
It's a cool place.
They have a lot more diversity there than uruguay -- even in the whitewashed south east corner that we visited. some (especially uruguayos) may disparage it, but it was a welcome change for me.
it's a lot more of a car culture. i think the taxes are lower on cars. the roads are big. lots of malls with big parkings lots. looked a lot more like the US than either argentina or uruguay -- closer to chile. btw, i noticed that gasoline was 2.50 reales, and ethanol was 1.50 reales per litre (sugar based)
the dollar's shellacking has hurt "affordability" for expats. it's still cheap-ish but the real has gone from about 3 to the dollar to 1.75 (ouch) -- i guess that's what energy independence and subsequently not being forced to secure supplies in the desert will get you. amazing, since these guys are notorious for destroying currencies.
weather in SE part was awesome. this would be the "colder" part of the country
although i'm sure there is crime there, it is NOTHING like advertised from what i saw (again in SE part only). saw no crime, or signs of it. saw people walking around with valuable watches/jewlery in not that great of neighborhoods. i was very concerned about security after talkin to people about rio and sao paulo, but again, it's a big country with lots of texture i guess.
portuguese, while relatively understandable for spanish readers (while in written form) is pretty hard to follow with only 5 days of exposure! :) i got by with a little bit of hacky portuguese (VERY little) and spanish most of the time. lots of people will understand your spanish and then talk back to you in portuguese :) good luck. i've been told speaking spanish loudly with a gringo accent is bad form in sketchier areas as it can make you an easy target of tourist crime.
the people --
almost *anyone* could look like a potential brazilian -- we even saw asians.
now, all my single guy friends will want to know about the women. i've *heard* that the NORTH is where all the beautiful women are. again, we were in the south.
golden lotus and i talked about this and concluded that people in the south (for the most part) looked very average -- with women wearning tighter clothes and heels (not very typical in Uruguay).
however, the "looks" didn't follow a normal bell curve distribution. there were a bunch of average people but a disproportionately larger number of women that were very well "taken care of" -- outliers if you will....only there were too many to account for them all as outliers.
i assume that the guys followed the same pattern but golden lotus was kind and said that she only had eyes for her balding spotted dog! :)
I'll follow up with some pics once i download them from the camera.
ciao,
fuBarrio
the country is huge, and we didn't see much of even the town we visited, but i'll give you some general impressions here and follow it up with some pictures in a later post:
It's a cool place.
They have a lot more diversity there than uruguay -- even in the whitewashed south east corner that we visited. some (especially uruguayos) may disparage it, but it was a welcome change for me.
it's a lot more of a car culture. i think the taxes are lower on cars. the roads are big. lots of malls with big parkings lots. looked a lot more like the US than either argentina or uruguay -- closer to chile. btw, i noticed that gasoline was 2.50 reales, and ethanol was 1.50 reales per litre (sugar based)
the dollar's shellacking has hurt "affordability" for expats. it's still cheap-ish but the real has gone from about 3 to the dollar to 1.75 (ouch) -- i guess that's what energy independence and subsequently not being forced to secure supplies in the desert will get you. amazing, since these guys are notorious for destroying currencies.
weather in SE part was awesome. this would be the "colder" part of the country
although i'm sure there is crime there, it is NOTHING like advertised from what i saw (again in SE part only). saw no crime, or signs of it. saw people walking around with valuable watches/jewlery in not that great of neighborhoods. i was very concerned about security after talkin to people about rio and sao paulo, but again, it's a big country with lots of texture i guess.
portuguese, while relatively understandable for spanish readers (while in written form) is pretty hard to follow with only 5 days of exposure! :) i got by with a little bit of hacky portuguese (VERY little) and spanish most of the time. lots of people will understand your spanish and then talk back to you in portuguese :) good luck. i've been told speaking spanish loudly with a gringo accent is bad form in sketchier areas as it can make you an easy target of tourist crime.
the people --
almost *anyone* could look like a potential brazilian -- we even saw asians.
now, all my single guy friends will want to know about the women. i've *heard* that the NORTH is where all the beautiful women are. again, we were in the south.
golden lotus and i talked about this and concluded that people in the south (for the most part) looked very average -- with women wearning tighter clothes and heels (not very typical in Uruguay).
however, the "looks" didn't follow a normal bell curve distribution. there were a bunch of average people but a disproportionately larger number of women that were very well "taken care of" -- outliers if you will....only there were too many to account for them all as outliers.
i assume that the guys followed the same pattern but golden lotus was kind and said that she only had eyes for her balding spotted dog! :)
I'll follow up with some pics once i download them from the camera.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
GIX.V
Was watching Canadian Biz TV and a guy who makes a living promoting junior miners was talking about GIX on the Canadian venture Exchange. He talked about lots of stocks but this one seemed the most interesting.
I woke up the next morning to see that the stock had shot up on his words....but rather than kick myself for missing out on the move, I noticed something really interesting starting to set up on this thing....
If physical gold pulls back a bit in the next little bit from the 780-790 range -- or for some other perfectly sound reason, this stock cools off and pulls back from it's recent highs after touching near it's previous high, this is one I'm goin to be watching.
While the volume didn't die out completely, this is a "decent" little cup formation on the back of an explosive upmove....If the chart for whatever reason creates a nice little trough (or "HANDLE") to aforementioned cup it could be setting up a nice little trade.
The idea is that you'd want to buy the stock at the point it broke through the point of resistance...one can often get a quick 20%+ on such a setup
I'll keep you posted.
ciao,
fubarrio
the Return of Bread and Circuses...part II
Hi all,
fuBarrio's snaggle-toothed snarling grin is already salivating in apparent pavlovian response to something that happened last week.
in perhaps one of the coolest things ever one of my three dedicated readers did something that single-handedly cemented the likeli-hood of a higher frequency of deranged fuBarrio sightings than has been seen over the last 6 months.
you see, while Uruguay is the land of milk 'n honey, one of the things it unfortunately (for fuBarrio) is NOT, is the land of HOSTESS!!!
why is this relevant?
well, in case you are new around here, fuBarrio often appears after over consumption of corn syrup and sugar laden "north american style" junk food, in all of its empty calorie grandeur! The fuel that keeps fuBarrio going most assuredly is the oft-cited, Hostess Twinkie Snack Cakes.
...the golden fluffy sponge cake, centering the "creamy" whipped-oil-sugar "goodness" on the inside. two great tastes that taste great together!!! especially when consumed in inappropriately large amounts for someone with my blood-sugar temperament.
After numerous unsuccessful calls to the people at Hostess, and a miserably failed letter writing and petition campaign, the people at Hostess informed me that Twinkie's would NOT be coming to store shelves in Uruguay anytime soon. After many inquiries, they muttered something about the infrastructure of international "baked goods" being weak.....
...devestation, disappointment, malaise...who knew that a twinkie could actually go "bad"?....for that matter, who knew that a twinkie could be classified as "baked good"???
So, while my Circuses (north american cable tv) had been suitably replaced with a slingbox strategically placed withing WA Huskies broadcast territory (thanks mom and dad!) and high speed connectivity, *Bread* (aka Twinkies Hostess Snack Cakes) were still missing.
It's like pepper without salt, peaches without cream, simon without garfunkel....while "OK" by itself, the yin of "Circuses" only become sublime when paired with its yang of "Bread". Almost no sooner than this (ok, semi-original) thought flashed through my mind, I got a phone call from the UruguayLiving.com office. The second (of my three) readers had brought me a gift from the states.....a in home twinkie maker to satisfy my every (over) indulgence in the snack cake of the gods.
Golden Lotus has graciously offered to help with the "whipped sugar oil" filling since apparently it is best attempted by someone with opposible thumbs.
To the two of you who have enjoyed a kindler, gentler, blog these last few months I have some disappointing news; you can probably expect a lot more junk-food fueled, maniacal fuBarrio sightings here in the near future.
"chow" :),
fuBarrio
fuBarrio's snaggle-toothed snarling grin is already salivating in apparent pavlovian response to something that happened last week.
in perhaps one of the coolest things ever one of my three dedicated readers did something that single-handedly cemented the likeli-hood of a higher frequency of deranged fuBarrio sightings than has been seen over the last 6 months.
you see, while Uruguay is the land of milk 'n honey, one of the things it unfortunately (for fuBarrio) is NOT, is the land of HOSTESS!!!
why is this relevant?
well, in case you are new around here, fuBarrio often appears after over consumption of corn syrup and sugar laden "north american style" junk food, in all of its empty calorie grandeur! The fuel that keeps fuBarrio going most assuredly is the oft-cited, Hostess Twinkie Snack Cakes.
...the golden fluffy sponge cake, centering the "creamy" whipped-oil-sugar "goodness" on the inside. two great tastes that taste great together!!! especially when consumed in inappropriately large amounts for someone with my blood-sugar temperament.
After numerous unsuccessful calls to the people at Hostess, and a miserably failed letter writing and petition campaign, the people at Hostess informed me that Twinkie's would NOT be coming to store shelves in Uruguay anytime soon. After many inquiries, they muttered something about the infrastructure of international "baked goods" being weak.....
...devestation, disappointment, malaise...who knew that a twinkie could actually go "bad"?....for that matter, who knew that a twinkie could be classified as "baked good"???
So, while my Circuses (north american cable tv) had been suitably replaced with a slingbox strategically placed withing WA Huskies broadcast territory (thanks mom and dad!) and high speed connectivity, *Bread* (aka Twinkies Hostess Snack Cakes) were still missing.
It's like pepper without salt, peaches without cream, simon without garfunkel....while "OK" by itself, the yin of "Circuses" only become sublime when paired with its yang of "Bread". Almost no sooner than this (ok, semi-original) thought flashed through my mind, I got a phone call from the UruguayLiving.com office. The second (of my three) readers had brought me a gift from the states.....a in home twinkie maker to satisfy my every (over) indulgence in the snack cake of the gods.
Golden Lotus has graciously offered to help with the "whipped sugar oil" filling since apparently it is best attempted by someone with opposible thumbs.
To the two of you who have enjoyed a kindler, gentler, blog these last few months I have some disappointing news; you can probably expect a lot more junk-food fueled, maniacal fuBarrio sightings here in the near future.
"chow" :),
fuBarrio
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Damages are Contained -- to Earth
I was watching "Damages" season finale last night on my Circuses box (slingbox).
For those that haven't seen it, it's about a big class action lawsuit carried out on a shady businessman (think Enron) who got out of his stock with inside information before the SEC announced an investigation into shady accounting. This, of course, is being carried out by an even shadier lawyer.
It was funny, because I know they filmed this in the spirit of Enron (and probably worldcom, tyco, etc etc), but they things they were saying sounded earily familiar.
He was being investigated for "hiding debts in offshore entities made to hold bad debts off the balance sheet" and "booking income in the present period based on expected income." (cash flows that were future hopes rather than present realities).
I know alot of you are thinking "Yeah, Enron", but look at our current lending environment.
You've got banks creating SIVs...(not sieve) to hold bad assets off their current balance sheets -- otherwise they'd have to pony up more in the way of reserves for the banking regulators.
AND you've got option ARM writers booking the increase in mortgage principal that payers are adding to their loans by paying the minimum as REVENUE. In other words, in some bizarre twist of logic and GAAP reason, they are booking money with the lowest probability of ever bein repaid as revenue in the current period.
DOH!
I mean, I know we are a stoopid people...after all, if you couldn't see shades of Vietnam -- especially in the rhetoric before it all started -- you were blinder than the cataract encrusted pooch that resides here.
but, C'MON for crap sakes....Enron only blew up like 6 years ago and the trial of the principals JUST FINISHED.....ridiculous.
In other news, I was going to run a really tasteless headline like, "Suprise, So Cal RE is ON FIRE"...or "RED HOT"...or pick your other tasteless joke. Just heard my cousin and his family barely got out of their house with their lives....in fact he was hospitalized.....
They'll be able to return to the house in a day or two to see if anything made it, but as of now, from what I hear, they have their pajamas and each other (and that's it).
Good luck to them, and the prayers of Golden Lotus and I are with them and all the other leftcoasters caught in the blaze.
ciao,
fuBarrio
For those that haven't seen it, it's about a big class action lawsuit carried out on a shady businessman (think Enron) who got out of his stock with inside information before the SEC announced an investigation into shady accounting. This, of course, is being carried out by an even shadier lawyer.
It was funny, because I know they filmed this in the spirit of Enron (and probably worldcom, tyco, etc etc), but they things they were saying sounded earily familiar.
He was being investigated for "hiding debts in offshore entities made to hold bad debts off the balance sheet" and "booking income in the present period based on expected income." (cash flows that were future hopes rather than present realities).
I know alot of you are thinking "Yeah, Enron", but look at our current lending environment.
You've got banks creating SIVs...(not sieve) to hold bad assets off their current balance sheets -- otherwise they'd have to pony up more in the way of reserves for the banking regulators.
AND you've got option ARM writers booking the increase in mortgage principal that payers are adding to their loans by paying the minimum as REVENUE. In other words, in some bizarre twist of logic and GAAP reason, they are booking money with the lowest probability of ever bein repaid as revenue in the current period.
DOH!
I mean, I know we are a stoopid people...after all, if you couldn't see shades of Vietnam -- especially in the rhetoric before it all started -- you were blinder than the cataract encrusted pooch that resides here.
but, C'MON for crap sakes....Enron only blew up like 6 years ago and the trial of the principals JUST FINISHED.....ridiculous.
In other news, I was going to run a really tasteless headline like, "Suprise, So Cal RE is ON FIRE"...or "RED HOT"...or pick your other tasteless joke. Just heard my cousin and his family barely got out of their house with their lives....in fact he was hospitalized.....
They'll be able to return to the house in a day or two to see if anything made it, but as of now, from what I hear, they have their pajamas and each other (and that's it).
Good luck to them, and the prayers of Golden Lotus and I are with them and all the other leftcoasters caught in the blaze.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, October 22, 2007
Estadio Centenario - Montevideo
GL and I attended the Uruguay v. Bolivia futbol (soccer) match on October 13th. It was the opening weekend of the SouthAmerican qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup.
It rocked.
Uruguay got up 2-0 and then a player from the Bolivian team was red-carded for some rough play after a previous yellow (unwarranted) for arguing a call that the linesman missed. The final tally was 5-0 Uruguay.
The crowd seemed to love every minute of it, and was very familiar with all of the players, including gettin very excited when they could tell when one of their favorite substitutes was gettin ready to come into the game.
About a month from now Chile comes to town for a match...definately planning on going to that match....nothing would be sweeter for fuBarrio than to have little Uruguay stomp the Chileans
I have alot more pics, but blogger is making me a bit crazy -- the last couple of days it's been unwilling to upload my pics without cutting off my connection. I'll try to remember to add them later.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Velodromo - Montevideo
Close to "Estadio Centenario" (Century Stadium) is the Montevideo "Velodromo" (Velodrome).
Estadio Centenario looks like it was built for the 1930 World Cup that was held here in Montevideo. The Velodrome, appears to have been built during the same time period with the art deco lettering, but I can't verify that as I'm too lazy to google or wikipedia it :)
As you can see it seems to be in a state of disrepair, however it still receives what looks like a fair amount of use.
Ciao,
fuBarrio
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