Tuesday, January 22, 2008

I love the smell of a bailout in the morning....

....it smells like......inflation!

for anyone who wasn't watching the markets this last week and especially over the 3 day holiday in the US....

aoooga a ooooo ga....DIVE! DIVE!

utter pandamonium it seems.

the reality is that given the magnitude of the runup, to be down 20% in hong kong, shanghai, or mubai is really not that big of a deal.

however, the magnitude of the decline in the EU got my attention.

and, with the "bailout" proposal being bantied about by bernanke/bush/paulson/congress/2008 candidates getting very little play from the markets i suspect that the heavy guns will come out on tuesday a.m. in the US markets.

what does that mean?

one of two things:

1.) "plunge protection team" interference in the futures market and maybe the market for securities themselves. if you don't know what the plunge protection team is google it or the working group on markets.....you don't need a tinfoil hat anymore to suspect that the markets are manipulated by government forces. everyone pretty much admits it these days.

2,) the market will be allowed to 'gap down' and run for an hour or two and then bernanke will announce a "suprise" early cut to the interest rates, the market will spike up and create a massive short squeeze rally.

...sigh....the kind of volatility that's promised tomorrow almost makes me want to buckle up and jump in for a frenetic day of trading.

however tempting the promise of making and/or losing my annual salary on a days worth of bets is not enough to get me back in the saddle tomorrow. i have a "day job" that demands my attention -- so i'll have to stay content to sit in my longer term holds and let the currents push me where they may.


1 comment:

fuBarrio said...

oops...i would be remiss if i did not point out that any BOUNCE would be about as healthy (and long lived hopefully) as an overweight SNL cast member going to iv drugs to extending an already week long coke binge

the market needs to rest. it doesn't need more of the same rate-cut opiate that got us here in the first place.