Tuesday, May 01, 2007

"Sell in May and Go Away"

That's an old saying in markets.

Needless to say, it doesn't always hold true, however when it does and you're caught on the wron side of it, that saying will ring in your ears all summer.

I'm still in the depreciatin dollar in my housing fund, and off today ("may day" holiday).

I'm watching very closely today to see if there is an opportunity to get short in a big way. However, I'm very concerned about the excess liquidity continuin to crop up in the market. The futures are up this morning, but it has done almost exactly as predicted....It has cropped up over 13k....and if it holds true to the prediction it will "hit the wall" as it becomes obvious that no new rate cut is forthcoming.

CNBC is spouting that the dead dollar is helping international earnings -- a very sick way of looking at things. Earnings expressed in "non-paper" money, prices of stock, and the averages are DOWN in my estimation.

Time will tell.


p.s. sds is a way to get 2x short s&p and qid is a way to get 2x short the nasdaq

p.p.s. edit from 11:25 eastern. i went long on sds (an s&p short, yikes, and long on txm.v a uranium play that by all rights should have trouble going north the next 4 months.....double yikes....what can i say? they both hit my targets so i dabbled....i will stop myself out if/when i lose between 8 and 10 percent....i will update you on their progress.....

txm.v i was lookin for 4.5....it got all the way to 4.25....i loaded up, but couldn't get a fill until 4.39.

sds i bought a little this a.m. at 54.07 as a way to hedge a total route in the markets taking down txm.v with it.....so much for "selling in may and going away"

edit: may 2, 10:12 eastern...i chickened out of the sds after it was down a mere 1.25% :) just seemed too much like "top calling" to me....a dangerous business when you are an inflation believer. i still think there is a big down day in the cards, but i'll try to get on board as it is in motion rather than "guess". sds moves 2x faster than the s&p so 10percent of my position was in txm.v and 5% in sds. 85 percent in the dollar.
now, i am 10 percent in txm.v and 90 in dollars. i will update my house fund holdings in a new post at end of day today.


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