Monday, May 07, 2007

"Do as I say, not as I do!"

I was looking at my two trades last week.

OK...I was hurried. I lacked sleep. I missed breakfast. The sun was in my eyes....(sorry, can't think of any other excuses).

In looking at the charts I'm not sure what I was thinking in those trades. After all the preaching in my blog about not tryin to time a top or bottom, etc, I make two trades attemptin to do exactly that.

I sold out of my s&P short fast....perhaps too fast...and i'm still holding my junior uranium miner.

The chart on txm.v is positively frightening when i look at it.

I'm up about 10%-ish on that buy, but it has all the hallmarks of a "deadcat bounce".....In other words, it would be very easy to give back all those gains and more....the price was below my price point but it got there so fast that the stock hasn't had a chance to build slowly and bring in new buyers.

A jab down and reversal can be lead by dumbasses like me buying and thinkin they are getting a "bargain". The ride back up can be short lived as the people caught flat footed earlier decide to liquidate into the strength.

So, what has really been happening in uranium? Why all the volatility?

two big fundamental events unfolded at about the time that the spot went over 100 for the first time. perhaps it was coincidence, but almost "on schedule" with my blogged predictions (based purely on pschological factors of pushing through triple digits on U3O8) we saw profit taking across the board in the complex of stocks dealing in uranium.

australia (at the national level) relaxed restrictions on new U mines. This is big. By some estimates australia has 30 percent of the easily accessible uranium and it had previously been restricted to 3 mines.

second, nymex is launching a futures market for uranium next week. ugh. just what we need (NOT!) :) the futures market is fraught with problems of its own as it's not tied to a physical delivery of the commodity.....otherwise, rogue states like fubarrio's abandoned oil platform could just get their raw U3O8 direct from nymex without all the cloak and dagger prospective "evil doers" have to go through nowadays.

justifiably, on the back of these two tidbits uranium speculation is taking a breather. i went long on txm.v because it hit my price point, but would have MUCH preferred that it hit that price point after cupping a little lower after a long and grinding summer of little to no interest in the issues.

that said....that could be the case on my next purchase in late august. for now, i'll hold tight for what looks like it could be a wild ride.

i still think a leveraged short into the general market will pay off big sometime...soon....i'm just not sure what i can predict it "tomorrow" yet.

once i do, i'll post it here.

ciao for now,

1 comment:

A-Philosophical said...

FuBarrio. You were having lack of sleep and that B.S. Business can be really stressing. I hope you feel good soon. Drop me a line whenever you can!