Sunday, November 23, 2008

What Now?

I've been a bit "out of pocket" recently, and haven't posted too much to this blog.

Longer-term, financially I see nothing that dramatically changes my thesis ("we're all doomed!") :)

In the short run, even though we hit new lows last week, we have a TON of people calling for a new "up leg" in the markets that could last 2-4 months (!) -- I'm not totally buying it yet.

Here is how I would recommend playing it:

I would only enter new positions if you're a crazy trader type.
If you've been stuck long in your 401k or whatever, use any bounce as a chance to get more defensive, but give it some weeks to play out and recover what you've been losing.
If you're short, and NOT leveraged you can ride it out, but beware, bear market rallies (times when the stock goes up even though it has been and will continue to go down) can be fast and furious -- being caught short with lots of leverage or an option contract that will expire to fast can be dangerous to your financial health.

Sorry for the macro look here, but i'm expecting to be very busy as i might be relocating here in the next few weeks and have lots of prep work to do -- like figuring out where we're gonna live (!)


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

As Doug Casey puts it, it's apt to be like an elevator ride with an absolute maniac at the controls - not pleasant one bit. At all.