Thursday, October 09, 2008

Do I Have Your Attention Yet?

In case you're one of those that just doesn't open your 401k statement when stocks are selling off, newsflash:

Government Intervention into Markets Doesn't F'ing Work

and, to be quite honest that is about the only thing that can be predicted when you the govt starts meddling in systems that are far too complex and interrelated to truly understand.

They banned (BANNED!) short selling cause that's what was causing this.
They promised to save our financial system if we'd only give them 850B dollars.
They've pumped perhaps over 1T into the system by 'backdoor' methods
They've had a coordinate multi-country 1/2 point rate cut

Guess what? We have literally *crashed* on all indices since then, and some very very disturbing things are starting to crop up in the debt markets.

Short term? I'm out of the markets 'cause we hit my intermediate downside target of 975 on the S&P and found a bid there (finally).

Technicians are calling for a relief rally. Bond market watchers are still VERY nervous we could get a continuing dislocation in us gov treasuries. I can't handicap it, so until i can, i'm pushin back my chair and cashing out for the moment.

btw, the "short ban" on financials is being lifted tomorrow....these stocks TANKED without shorts to offer bids in a falling market -- just as i said they would and counter to popular keeping with that theme i wouldn't be shocked to see the day they reinstitute short selling to have a counter intuitive green day....maybe even a return to normalcy where people can actually hedge their bets without paying through the nose for puts. what a concept!

it's time to stop believing that these fools in government:

1.) know what they are doing
2.) don't have huge conflicts of interest
3.) are protecting YOUR best interests


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