I think the old joke goes something like this:
Q: "How do I build up a million dollar portfolio in Junior Uranium Mining Stocks?"
A: "Start with 10 million dollars...."
All jokes aside, as documented here, (along with gold) Uranium juniors were a big pony that I staked the last year as I saw some other markets starting to get really "wobbley".
Junior Uranium is the new Internet, for better or worse. There are no earnings. Yet, many of these companies are up WELL over 100% since this summer....actually almost ALL uranium juniors are up a similar amount as a result of a production setback by the biggest miner of them all.
The reason that I'm bringing Uranium miners up again is this:
1.) neener neener neener -- "I told you so!!!" :)
2.) We are rapidly approaching a period of the year when junior mining shares generally do NOT perform as well .....mid-april-ish to september.
3.) i think some stock traders *may* look to book some profits if/when we move above 100/lb on the yellowcake (currently at $95)....Fortunately, the price of physical Uranium itself doesn't have a futures market, so most of the buying/selling is done by commercials and not speculators....although there are a couple of vehicles out there for giving traders the ability to take down physical supply off of the market further exascerbating the physical supply problems.
While there are lots of reasons that "this time it's different" one must be aware of tidal influences if one is going to surf the global liquidity wave for a living. The good news is, if you haven't already jumped on the uranium bandwagon there is a nice period here where you could have a chance to do your research, get set up, and get into a speculation or two during the "slow season" this summer.
If you're going to invest in the junior miners try to pick ones with proven URANIUM mining experience. Given the length of the recent downcycle these are very few and far between and will quickly winnow a list of about 300 down to 10 or fewer for you.
There are going to be a couple of companies that build mines of lasting values. And, there will be lots of people who throw their money away on speculative juniors that never become anything -- some of which will detail their foibles under pseudonyms while taking on the personae of balding, spotted dogs.....
p.s. for anyone crazy enough to think about speculating in junior mining shares, please take note of fubarrio's first theorem of bad luck (tm) as it applies to securities mentioned positively in a public setting and set your expectations accordingly. for the uninitiated, fubarrio's first theorem of bad luck predicts a decline in the value of any proposed speculation in the immediate aftermath of any mention in a public forum
ciao,
fuBarrio
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
"Where have you been?"
Well, I've been noticably absent from the scene as of late, so I thought I'd take a minute to catch some folks up on what's been happening.
I've been very busy working with some other "Uruguayan immigrants" (aka expats) on building a few companies here in Montevideo.
The company has been around for a while. So what do we do?
Well, if someone needs to transmit a large wire transfer, or money transfer....(especially an overseas or offshore wire), we do that quickly and confidentially while inviting the absolute minimum of intrusion into your private financial matters.
Sounds pretty esoteric, right?
Well, there are some other services that are going to be layered on top of this eventually that will make it more clear in case you're still wondering why someone would actually want or need these services.
If you're a reader of this blog you can probably guess why.
Ok...back to your regularly scheduled programming...
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
offshore wire hound
I've been very busy working with some other "Uruguayan immigrants" (aka expats) on building a few companies here in Montevideo.
The company has been around for a while. So what do we do?
Well, if someone needs to transmit a large wire transfer, or money transfer....(especially an overseas or offshore wire), we do that quickly and confidentially while inviting the absolute minimum of intrusion into your private financial matters.
Sounds pretty esoteric, right?
Well, there are some other services that are going to be layered on top of this eventually that will make it more clear in case you're still wondering why someone would actually want or need these services.
If you're a reader of this blog you can probably guess why.
Ok...back to your regularly scheduled programming...
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
offshore wire hound
Sunday, March 18, 2007
fuBarrio Makes Drunken Proclamation
In and of itself that isn't really a headline.
However, at last night's St.Patrick's day get-together at the Southron's lair fuBarrio made a proclamation with a certainty only possessed by those with an overabundance of liquid courage. In this case the backbone came courtesy of an oversupply of green Patricia (Uruguayan beer).
Although my memory is hazy as to what exactly fuBarrio said, it sounded something like, "I will stake my LIFE to Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination."
Of course, this in and of itself isn't that bold of an announcement -- except for the whole 'staking one's life' part :)
However, at the time I was arguing with someone that thought that Hillary's campaign was coming under heat because of her stance on the war or something. Of course, not being burdened by reading (or watching) US news that doesn't come from non-traditional conspiracy nuts' websites I'm not burdened by any of the recent "facts".....like maybe her campaign actually *is* in trouble :) No idea.
The side effect of being so "uninformed" has allowed fuBarrio to see with relative clarity events set to transpire over a longer time frame. While staking my life on her nomination seems a bit much, I'm willing to back up my words (kind of) and stake fuBarrio's life on it.
If Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination (and it isn't because of her or an immediate family member's death making her quit) I will lock away my irrepressible alter ego 'fuBarrio' and not allow his crazy rantings to be heard by the public at large..thus, effectively "killing" off his colorful online personna.
While I realize it would be strange that someone so unliked would become the first female nominee to head the Democratic ticket, I have THAT MUCH FAITH in the Clinton political machine.
Now, to the prospective candidates in the Democratic election: may the best Dragon-Lady-Sneaky-"cattle futures trading"-Untrustworthy-Pandering-Finger-in-the-wind-Playing-to-the-media-Candidate win!
ciao,
fuBarrio
However, at last night's St.Patrick's day get-together at the Southron's lair fuBarrio made a proclamation with a certainty only possessed by those with an overabundance of liquid courage. In this case the backbone came courtesy of an oversupply of green Patricia (Uruguayan beer).
Although my memory is hazy as to what exactly fuBarrio said, it sounded something like, "I will stake my LIFE to Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination."
Of course, this in and of itself isn't that bold of an announcement -- except for the whole 'staking one's life' part :)
However, at the time I was arguing with someone that thought that Hillary's campaign was coming under heat because of her stance on the war or something. Of course, not being burdened by reading (or watching) US news that doesn't come from non-traditional conspiracy nuts' websites I'm not burdened by any of the recent "facts".....like maybe her campaign actually *is* in trouble :) No idea.
The side effect of being so "uninformed" has allowed fuBarrio to see with relative clarity events set to transpire over a longer time frame. While staking my life on her nomination seems a bit much, I'm willing to back up my words (kind of) and stake fuBarrio's life on it.
If Hillary Clinton doesn't win the nomination (and it isn't because of her or an immediate family member's death making her quit) I will lock away my irrepressible alter ego 'fuBarrio' and not allow his crazy rantings to be heard by the public at large..thus, effectively "killing" off his colorful online personna.
While I realize it would be strange that someone so unliked would become the first female nominee to head the Democratic ticket, I have THAT MUCH FAITH in the Clinton political machine.
Now, to the prospective candidates in the Democratic election: may the best Dragon-Lady-Sneaky-"cattle futures trading"-Untrustworthy-Pandering-Finger-in-the-wind-Playing-to-the-media-Candidate win!
ciao,
fuBarrio
And, this just in from Uruguay....
...Ok I promised to create a post about Uruguay.
This seemed to be the story with the biggest possible effect on foreigners evaluating Uruguay...
From www.UruguayDailyNews.com
BROU TO OFFER REAL ESTATE LOANS 2ND HALF OF 2007
March 16th, 2007
Banco Republica Oriental del Uruguay , the government bank, will be giving loans to people who want to purchase or renovate a house. The program is due to launch sometime after June. Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay, which is a state owned bank used to provide housing loans but has run out of resources. BROU has decided to step into this market because of BHU’s problems and the need for further growth in the construction and real estate industries . (Ultimas Noticias 16/03/07)
-------
This seemed to be the story with the biggest possible effect on foreigners evaluating Uruguay...
From www.UruguayDailyNews.com
BROU TO OFFER REAL ESTATE LOANS 2ND HALF OF 2007
March 16th, 2007
Banco Republica Oriental del Uruguay , the government bank, will be giving loans to people who want to purchase or renovate a house. The program is due to launch sometime after June. Banco Hipotecario del Uruguay, which is a state owned bank used to provide housing loans but has run out of resources. BROU has decided to step into this market because of BHU’s problems and the need for further growth in the construction and real estate industries . (Ultimas Noticias 16/03/07)
-------
Right now, with the exception of some private lenders, there just aren't loans for real estate in Uruguay. While that has kept the cost of land and homes relatively affordable outside of the popular spots for tourists, it has made nicer properties untouchable for the middle class that reside here and earn their money here.
As I've speculated before, the money that is supporting the nicer homes in the city are supported by foreign money coming in supported by foreign govts, companies, or just individuals (equity locusts) taking out a heloc or selling an overpriced property in parts that support home values with loans and buying here with cash.
Offering RE loans to the unwashed masses again has the potential to be a "game changer" for Uruguay, and unfortunately from my perspective, for the worse. I understand "everyone" wants the 42 inch plasma, granite countertops, and european (or japanese) luxury vehicle....I'm just not comfortable with easily available credit to do it.
Don't get me wrong, this place is decades behind the US in consumptive behaviour. But, if I'm going to consider putting down roots, I might have to consider buying at a time when I think the volume of equity locusts is getting ready to dry up....otherwise hope that the availability of money to buy real estate locally doesn't make things crazy here.
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
"Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier!"
OK....I know I said I'd lighten up on poor beleaguered housing now that everyone agrees it's got one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.
But, I found this online and almost choked on my twinkies -- Contra Costa county is where i used to work (it is east of Oakland) and home to such bubblicious towns as "Walnut Creek" and some truly upscale communities ($3MM+)
I would hope that most of this activity is from the less desireable Contra Costa towns, but where do you think most of the people who don't work at Chevron Texaco are getting the cash to afford the overpriced homes in Walnut Creek? -- my guess -- directly and indirectly servicing all the nouveau house rich east bay citizenry
From Central Valley Business Times: http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=4599
(my emphasis added)
"Home foreclosures in the United States being reported by the media likely understate actual foreclosure sales activity, according to Foreclosure Radar, a Discovery Bay-based foreclosure listings and software company.
According to the company, February saw 4,171 foreclosures with a total loan value of $1.64 billion for distressed properties sold at auction in California. This dollar volume surpassed the prior record reached in the third quarter of 1996, and represents a 48 percent increase from December 2006, says the company which tracks actual foreclosure sales, not just initial listings.
“The foreclosure sale numbers, sometimes referred to as REO's reported by similar listing services do not reflect current foreclosure sales activity. Instead, they are based on a document called a Trustee's Deed that gets recorded with the county weeks after the sale. With the rapid changes in the foreclosure market, the delay in waiting for these documents to be recorded has resulted in actual foreclosure sales to be under reported by more than 300 percent,” he says.
“We’ve been tracking home, commercial, and bank foreclosures for years and the recent rise is alarming,” says Mr. O’Toole. “If you look at the data for Contra Costa County, for example, the number of foreclosures has increased by 865 percent in just one year and this is by no means the worst example in California.”
wow.
fuBarrio
But, I found this online and almost choked on my twinkies -- Contra Costa county is where i used to work (it is east of Oakland) and home to such bubblicious towns as "Walnut Creek" and some truly upscale communities ($3MM+)
I would hope that most of this activity is from the less desireable Contra Costa towns, but where do you think most of the people who don't work at Chevron Texaco are getting the cash to afford the overpriced homes in Walnut Creek? -- my guess -- directly and indirectly servicing all the nouveau house rich east bay citizenry
From Central Valley Business Times: http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=4599
(my emphasis added)
"Home foreclosures in the United States being reported by the media likely understate actual foreclosure sales activity, according to Foreclosure Radar, a Discovery Bay-based foreclosure listings and software company.
According to the company, February saw 4,171 foreclosures with a total loan value of $1.64 billion for distressed properties sold at auction in California. This dollar volume surpassed the prior record reached in the third quarter of 1996, and represents a 48 percent increase from December 2006, says the company which tracks actual foreclosure sales, not just initial listings.
“The foreclosure sale numbers, sometimes referred to as REO's reported by similar listing services do not reflect current foreclosure sales activity. Instead, they are based on a document called a Trustee's Deed that gets recorded with the county weeks after the sale. With the rapid changes in the foreclosure market, the delay in waiting for these documents to be recorded has resulted in actual foreclosure sales to be under reported by more than 300 percent,” he says.
“We’ve been tracking home, commercial, and bank foreclosures for years and the recent rise is alarming,” says Mr. O’Toole. “If you look at the data for Contra Costa County, for example, the number of foreclosures has increased by 865 percent in just one year and this is by no means the worst example in California.”
wow.
fuBarrio
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Le Extrano a Chile!
...I really miss Chile. In fact I miss them so much I partnered up with our friendly neighbors to the north and made a present for them....
To see my gift online, click on the following link. It'll take a second to load up....best if viewed with sound, but clearly not necessary!
http://www.tatuagemdaboa.com.br/tatuagem.asp?seunome=fuBarrio&nomeamigo=Chile
ciao,
fuBarrio
To see my gift online, click on the following link. It'll take a second to load up....best if viewed with sound, but clearly not necessary!
http://www.tatuagemdaboa.com.br/tatuagem.asp?seunome=fuBarrio&nomeamigo=Chile
ciao,
fuBarrio
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
"Those who can't DO, TEACH...."
"....and those who can't teach move to South America and blog mindless conspiracy theories all day."
I swiped this from another blogger's site...www.thehousingbubbleblog.com (if you aren't already a bear, read this for an evening or two and you'll be going into a 12 year hibernation on housing.)
From MarketWatch. “Losses on so-called Alt-A home loans are accelerating and could hit the value of lower-rated portions of some mortgage-backed securities, according to a study released on Tuesday.”
“These loans, known as Alt-A ARM IOs, have seen a four-fold increase delinquencies of at least 60 days, four times the level of similar loans originated in 2003 and 2004, according to the study by David Liu, head of mortgage credit research at UBS.”
“This ‘alarming’ deterioration could have dire consequences for some investors in the BBB- rated parts of mortgage-backed securities that contain these types of loans, but the market hasn’t priced these risks in yet, Liu warned.”
“Losses ‘could potentially wipe out most of the credit support on BBB- rated bonds backed by Alt-A hybrids,’ Liu wrote. ‘And yet we have not seen any spread movements that suggest investors are taking this into consideration.’”
“Liu’s study, which used LoanPerformance data from the end of January, is based on the housing market remaining relatively flat over the next few years. ‘If house prices fall over the next few years, everything in this scenario will be much worst,’ he said.”
“‘There is a 34% probability that the entire BBB- tranche might get wiped out,’ he wrote. ‘Similarly, there is a 17% probability that cumulative losses reach 300 basis points, which could make BBB bonds appear on the endangered species list.’”
“The percentage of mortgages that started the foreclosure process in the final quarter of last year rose to 0.54 percent, a record high. The previous high, 0.50 percent, occurred in the second quarter of 2002 as the economy was recovering from the blows of the 2001 recession.”
“Delinquency and foreclosure rates were considerably higher for higher-risk subprime borrowers, especially those with adjustable-rate mortgages. The late-payment rate for all subprime loans jumped to 13.33 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 12.56 percent in the prior period and the highest in four years. The delinquency rate for subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages was even higher; 14.44 percent, also the highest in four years.”
“‘Unfortunately, it appears delinquency rates will likely worsen before they improve,’ said Gina Martin, economist at Wachovia Corp. Economics Group.”
I swiped this from another blogger's site...www.thehousingbubbleblog.com (if you aren't already a bear, read this for an evening or two and you'll be going into a 12 year hibernation on housing.)
From MarketWatch. “Losses on so-called Alt-A home loans are accelerating and could hit the value of lower-rated portions of some mortgage-backed securities, according to a study released on Tuesday.”
“These loans, known as Alt-A ARM IOs, have seen a four-fold increase delinquencies of at least 60 days, four times the level of similar loans originated in 2003 and 2004, according to the study by David Liu, head of mortgage credit research at UBS.”
“This ‘alarming’ deterioration could have dire consequences for some investors in the BBB- rated parts of mortgage-backed securities that contain these types of loans, but the market hasn’t priced these risks in yet, Liu warned.”
“Losses ‘could potentially wipe out most of the credit support on BBB- rated bonds backed by Alt-A hybrids,’ Liu wrote. ‘And yet we have not seen any spread movements that suggest investors are taking this into consideration.’”
“Liu’s study, which used LoanPerformance data from the end of January, is based on the housing market remaining relatively flat over the next few years. ‘If house prices fall over the next few years, everything in this scenario will be much worst,’ he said.”
“‘There is a 34% probability that the entire BBB- tranche might get wiped out,’ he wrote. ‘Similarly, there is a 17% probability that cumulative losses reach 300 basis points, which could make BBB bonds appear on the endangered species list.’”
“The percentage of mortgages that started the foreclosure process in the final quarter of last year rose to 0.54 percent, a record high. The previous high, 0.50 percent, occurred in the second quarter of 2002 as the economy was recovering from the blows of the 2001 recession.”
“Delinquency and foreclosure rates were considerably higher for higher-risk subprime borrowers, especially those with adjustable-rate mortgages. The late-payment rate for all subprime loans jumped to 13.33 percent in the fourth quarter, up from 12.56 percent in the prior period and the highest in four years. The delinquency rate for subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages was even higher; 14.44 percent, also the highest in four years.”
“‘Unfortunately, it appears delinquency rates will likely worsen before they improve,’ said Gina Martin, economist at Wachovia Corp. Economics Group.”
I'm shocked, SHOCKED (!) that problems could spread beyond subprime mortgages into higher rated tranches of credit. Wow, somehow that sounds familiar though (?) The mainstream media is all over this like white on rice at this point I guess.
I guess my 15 minutes is up. :) Parroting other extremists is cool, but it's hard to keep up that whole "fringe personality cache" when Lesley Stahl is saying the same thing on 60 minutes.
I guess it's time for an extremist like fuBarrio to move on to his next project.....uh....er.....hmmmm......uh.....what now?
Anyone want to hear about Uruguay???
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
Saturday, March 10, 2007
San Leandro, CA calling....
...Ok, so google has this feature in their "analytics" suite that tells you where all the people who are visiting your site are coming from.
lo-and-behold, i've added my FOURTH reader (well, technically it's still my third because i lost one) in San Leandro, CA.
Now, I do have an aunt and uncle in S.L., but outside of that, I don't think I actually know anyone else there anymore. The pathetic thing is, I was a property owner and lived there for two years....love those tight-knit US suburbs! :)
Technically, I did know some people there, but the young people were all so busy climbing the "property ladder" and trying to move to "more desirable" (more outrageously expensive) neighborhoods, that they've all since left.
Anyhow, sorry for another in a string of OT posts, but if it's my aunt and/or uncle (or cousins) drop me a line for pete's sake and stop kibitzing (info at fubarrio dot com). If it's someone else from the former fubarrio stomping grounds, send and email or comment and let us know what's happening.
I'd be especially interested to know if anyone's realized that the homes in the "flats" aren't worth 800k yet. :)
peace,
fuBarrio
lo-and-behold, i've added my FOURTH reader (well, technically it's still my third because i lost one) in San Leandro, CA.
Now, I do have an aunt and uncle in S.L., but outside of that, I don't think I actually know anyone else there anymore. The pathetic thing is, I was a property owner and lived there for two years....love those tight-knit US suburbs! :)
Technically, I did know some people there, but the young people were all so busy climbing the "property ladder" and trying to move to "more desirable" (more outrageously expensive) neighborhoods, that they've all since left.
Anyhow, sorry for another in a string of OT posts, but if it's my aunt and/or uncle (or cousins) drop me a line for pete's sake and stop kibitzing (info at fubarrio dot com). If it's someone else from the former fubarrio stomping grounds, send and email or comment and let us know what's happening.
I'd be especially interested to know if anyone's realized that the homes in the "flats" aren't worth 800k yet. :)
peace,
fuBarrio
"We have ..... BUSH!"
Ok...GW style.
After a lot of hullabuloo by the left wing radicals, he got applause (?!?!) as his motorcade blocked off the coastal highway and sped through Montevideo. In reality that was probably just some lackeys in limos and Suburbans, but they got applause none the less.
In other news, some friends launched UruguayDailyNews.com
It's an ENGLISH digest that tells you in a minute what's happening in Uruguay, with links to the appropriate Spanish original articles....a little bit of editorial content and over time, they'll gradually increase the depth and breadth of their original coverage.
bookmark it! check it out daily! see how nothing really does change here! :)
peace,
fuBarrio
Sunday, March 04, 2007
We're all gonna DIE!!!
Next week doesn't look great, folks.
I'm just sorta digging out from under last week's workload, and I noticed that a couple of more banks are now warning that, "hey, maybe loaning all that money to people who couldn't pay it back DOES have a negative consequence."
Subprime lending, the little engine that could and fueler of housing fraud, scams, overvaluations, and outright lending lunacy is imploding.
Our friends over at http://ml-implode.com/ have been kind enough to summarize the carnage for us for the top 25 sub-prime lenders in the country. Here is a snippet of the top five.
1.) Wells Fargo
2.) HSBC Household Finance
3.) New Century
4.) Countrywide
5.) Fremont General
Since the big Tuesday drawdown and several after the end of trading Friday these little nasties came to light:
"New Century Financial Corp. said late Friday that it's facing a federal criminal probe and will likely breach a major lending covenant with its financial backers, bringing into question the survival of the second-largest U.S. subprime-mortgage lender. "
"Countrywide Financial Corp., Calabasas, Calif., reported Thursday that $22 billion, or 19%, of its subprime receivables are in some form of delinquency. "
"Troubled subprime lender Fremont General (NYSE:FMT) said late Friday it will exit subprime residential lending, citing mounting pressure from loan repurchases and likely regulatory action. The company had first hinted at problems on February 28, when it said it would delay its fourth quarter and full year earnings."
I heard some rumblings online about an afterhours announcement by HSBC, putting a more fine point on an earlier "prewarning" about subprime loan losses, but have been unable to locate it. In addition, Wells Fargo owns over 4% of Fremont. It will be very interesting to see how Wells weathers the storm when California starts *really* rolling over.
So is this the end for the bubblicious US markets? No, but it is the beginning of the end, imo. Liquidity will continue to dictate everything. If (when!) liquidity dries up, the prices will revert to and past "fair value". Will gold be the place to hide, or just deflate with everything else? This really depends on the actions of the powers that be. Will they use this as the excuse to increase liquidity at the cost of the dollar? If so, expect continued strength (relative to the dollar) in the precious metals.
If you believe this is the case, check technical levels for support in the POG (probably around 620 and again at 600 -- without checking the charts).
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
I'm just sorta digging out from under last week's workload, and I noticed that a couple of more banks are now warning that, "hey, maybe loaning all that money to people who couldn't pay it back DOES have a negative consequence."
Subprime lending, the little engine that could and fueler of housing fraud, scams, overvaluations, and outright lending lunacy is imploding.
Our friends over at http://ml-implode.com/ have been kind enough to summarize the carnage for us for the top 25 sub-prime lenders in the country. Here is a snippet of the top five.
1.) Wells Fargo
2.) HSBC Household Finance
3.) New Century
4.) Countrywide
5.) Fremont General
Since the big Tuesday drawdown and several after the end of trading Friday these little nasties came to light:
"New Century Financial Corp. said late Friday that it's facing a federal criminal probe and will likely breach a major lending covenant with its financial backers, bringing into question the survival of the second-largest U.S. subprime-mortgage lender. "
"Countrywide Financial Corp., Calabasas, Calif., reported Thursday that $22 billion, or 19%, of its subprime receivables are in some form of delinquency. "
"Troubled subprime lender Fremont General (NYSE:FMT) said late Friday it will exit subprime residential lending, citing mounting pressure from loan repurchases and likely regulatory action. The company had first hinted at problems on February 28, when it said it would delay its fourth quarter and full year earnings."
I heard some rumblings online about an afterhours announcement by HSBC, putting a more fine point on an earlier "prewarning" about subprime loan losses, but have been unable to locate it. In addition, Wells Fargo owns over 4% of Fremont. It will be very interesting to see how Wells weathers the storm when California starts *really* rolling over.
So is this the end for the bubblicious US markets? No, but it is the beginning of the end, imo. Liquidity will continue to dictate everything. If (when!) liquidity dries up, the prices will revert to and past "fair value". Will gold be the place to hide, or just deflate with everything else? This really depends on the actions of the powers that be. Will they use this as the excuse to increase liquidity at the cost of the dollar? If so, expect continued strength (relative to the dollar) in the precious metals.
If you believe this is the case, check technical levels for support in the POG (probably around 620 and again at 600 -- without checking the charts).
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
Friday, March 02, 2007
"Oh, the Humanity!"
Well, anyone who wasn't long the equity markets(or the precious metals!) this week, was probably enjoying a healthy dose of shadenfraude.
To anyone who was wiley enough to be SHORT these markets is probably laughing all the way to the bank.
Unfortunately, although fuBarrio has been calling for a collapse for the better part of a year, my net position was long (mostly in little mining stocks) and I ended up losing a little bit of money. Luckily it wasn't anything that I couldn't weather and only one uncontrollable twinkie binge was bad enough to actually justify the police coming out to talk me off the ledge.
To anyone who was wiley enough to be SHORT these markets is probably laughing all the way to the bank.
Unfortunately, although fuBarrio has been calling for a collapse for the better part of a year, my net position was long (mostly in little mining stocks) and I ended up losing a little bit of money. Luckily it wasn't anything that I couldn't weather and only one uncontrollable twinkie binge was bad enough to actually justify the police coming out to talk me off the ledge.
As I said last week, before the carnage (ok, it really wasn't *that* bad) I really think this is the beginning of something much more sinister than a 3% down move. Unlike some others, I see no real reason for optimism in the stock market in general. Unfortunately, since I really don't trust the federal reserve to do what's best for us (the general public) I don't really feel that comfortable hiding in cash either.
So, here I am, like everyone else, trying to duck and weave in and run out from under the burning wreckage.
Before Tuesday, the volatility index was at absurd lows....meaning that no one was really taking the possibility of a big drawn down in values seriously. Now, they are not so complacent, surely. Who's holding the US mortgage bag? What will they do when they realize it? What will the Fed's reaction be? The BOJ? The Chinese?
Unfortunately, way more questions than a balding dog can possibly have the answers to. Tune in next week as we try to discern from the market activity (after a good weekend of cooling heads) what the longer term trend will be.
I'm guessing safer investments might look a little more attractive. We'll see.
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
OK...now what?
if you are in the markets and you want a way to play a total route, take a look at QID.
warning!!!: QID is twice as volatile as the QQQQ but in REVERSE. In other words, it is twice as volatile, in both directions.
I still fully expect the fed to try to inflate there way out of this mess....So, be aware and have some exposure to something that rises in an inflationary environment if you're trying to short.
more later,
fuBarrio
warning!!!: QID is twice as volatile as the QQQQ but in REVERSE. In other words, it is twice as volatile, in both directions.
I still fully expect the fed to try to inflate there way out of this mess....So, be aware and have some exposure to something that rises in an inflationary environment if you're trying to short.
more later,
fuBarrio
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Tobin ignores the first law of Drug dealing....
...."don't get high on your own supply!"Or, at least that's what I think Michelle Pfeiffer tells Tony Montana in the cult classic....
Regarding Tobin: "I neva' li' tha' cockarocha"
But, in the interest of fairness, I wanted to print his story. in my blog because after reading his article, I looked up definition of "doom and gloomer" in the dictionary and there was a picture of fuBarrio :)
In the end I couldn't help adding a few of my own snide comments interspersed throughout.
From this link: http://changewave.com/freecontent/2007/02/freetobymain20070221.html
"I want to thank Britney Spears and Isaiah Washington for being the inspirations behind my rant today. Poor Britney, God bless her, checked into rehab on Tuesday -- I hear she's out now. That didn't take long.
"Grey's Anatomy" actor Isaiah Washington had to go to rehab because he said some unkind things about gay people.If you ask me, I think we're keeping this rehab thing too small -- it should be a lot bigger. And I think the first new rehab program should be for the bad news bears and perma-doom-and-gloomers -- and I volunteer to run it.
These are the guys that we see forecasting disaster on television every day -- we have them on Fox News Channel and you can see them on CNBC, too (fubarrio edit: CNBC is too doom and gloom??? hahhahahahhahaha, er, cough cough...ah....ok, back to tobin). They make good TV and you know why they're on -- because they scare the crap out of people.
Here's their basic line: These sub-prime mortgages are going to blow up and when they blow up they're going to take the entire U.S. economy with them. It's going to be a recession just like 1989 or 1990.And that's why they're bearish. They'll tell anyone who listens that -- oh my God! -- you've got to sell your stocks, you need to buy gold and you need to buy all sorts of crazy things.
Listen, these guys need to be in rehab to get reacquainted with modern economics. In essence, they're telling a story as if nothing in the world has changed since the '80s. (fubarrio edit: "it's different this time"...uh....yeah.) And let me tell you, in terms of financial terms, in terms of global financial economy, in terms of how we spread risk around the rest of the world, everything has changed. Everything.
So to come to the same conclusion that something that happened in the late '80s is going to cause the same thing to happen in 2007 is insane. It is so far off the mark.
SUB-PRIME THINKING
Let's go through this sub-prime blowup thing. In the old days, if we went out and we lent a bunch of money out to people who are less than creditworthy, and maybe we gave them 100% loans or maybe 110% loans. In the old days (what I'm calling the '80s now) this happened. And guess what? If interest rates started going up, or the economy really slowed down, you'd get a high default rate.And that would be somewhat of a contagion because maybe at that time a lot of those loans were made by savings and loans that had no insurance and there was no way or securitizing via credit derivatives.
Let's fast forward to 2007. Today, we've got a whole bunch of guys making these sub-prime loans to low credit people or with low documentation loans and pretty much everyone could get approved. Now some of these questionable practices are coming home to roost because they were adjustable-rate loans. And as interest rates rose over the last couple of years, they now have a 7% and 8% rate instead of a 5% rate.
But guess what? This is not going to take down our entire economy. As a matter of fact, it's not even taking down the mortgage industry. Here's what it's doing: First off, the companies that bought or made these loans, packaged them together and sold them off in pieces in what's known as trusts. Now these trusts were purchased by millions of investors out there through their money managers, hedge funds or corporate bond funds.But instead of just buying these things, they also are buying what's known as credit derivatives (i.e., insurance), particularly on the hedge fund side. So if the loans blow up, they've already bought insurance. (fubarrio edit: to readers...google "counterparty risk" if you want my rebuttal).
When they bought these high-yielding loans, they paid for that insurance all up front. That wasn't available in the '80s. So the idea that if these loans go bad that means the rest of the world is going to go bad is nuts. It's nuts because these loans have been split up and sold to literally millions of different investment pools all over the world, not just in the United States. So when you spread the risk like that, it completely changes the risk parameters.
BIGGER IS BETTER
Here's the second thing that the doom-and-gloomers don't understand: We have a $13 trillion economy that's almost $14 trillion if you add everything up including imports/exports and the whole schmozzle. So at that level, a $200 billion meltdown in mortgages doesn't get on the radar screen of our economy. We are a gigantic aircraft carrier powered by the incredible buying power of the American consumer, the incredible productivity of the American corporation.$200 billion hiccups just don't get it anymore.I mean, 15 to 20 years ago it was a different story. But these guys, these professional doom and gloomers in my personal economic rehab program, are going to learn how the world is different today.
1) Because of global capital, we have this tremendous diffusion of investment capital from all over the world in these various investments, so they're spread out. No one country or single place is going to take a hit if they have problems.
2) When they do have problems we have a huge, multi-trillion dollar credit derivative industry, which is a fancy phrase for people who buy insurance when they purchase these riskier assets. They've already insured most of this.
3) If you look at where the defaults are coming in this sub-prime market, you'll find out that a lot of the defaults are coming from speculators in places like Miami. So I think these people bought these condos probably on the day we said the real estate market is at the top in March 2005. That was the day when we saw facing full-page ads in every major newspaper in the United States saying, "make $50,000 every 90 days."
That was the top, ladies and gentlemen. We called it, and we were right. But guess what? A lot of people didn't see our warning and went out and bought condos at the top of the market and got an adjustable-rate mortgage.
So when the thing scooted up in two years or a year and a half, they said, "Forget it. That condo's going away, I'm giving it back to the bank." Or they bought a house because residential real estate "can't fail." Well guess what? They're giving it back, too.
Now these people are not bankrupt. I mean there are certainly people at the low end of the economic scale who have a mortgage that's too big and they give them to the bank in foreclosures because they can't make the payments.
Guess what folks? That's how the mortgage market works. But the thing these guys are missing is that this is just the speculation being pulled out of the market. We've got an unemployment rate of 4.7%. We'll probably top out in this cycle at 4.9%, maybe 5%.
REMEMBER THE SUPER SPENDERS?
Here's one more thing people don't understand about this economy. We have what I would call the super spenders -- the top 10%-20% earners in the United States. This group accounts for almost 90% of our economic activity when you talk about anything related to discretionary spending.We're talking about spending on a second home, new TVs, putting the kids through college, etc.
If you study that group -- people over the age of 30 with some college -- the unemployment rate is about 1%.And the fact of the matter is that at the low end of economic spectrum, if they're having financial difficulty because their mortgage rates have gone up to the point where they can't make them, I mean, you know, as dreadful and heartbreaking a story as that is, from a pure economic standpoint, it really doesn't matter as much to the overall economy (fubarrio edit: yeah....90% of the population feeling disaffected will probably HELP political and economic stability....kinda like new serfdom...damn...why didn't i see it before?)
So what you really want to worry about in 2007 is how the super spenders are doing in the American economy. And if you look at those numbers, you'll see they're doing great, and that's why this economy continues to grow and continues to have this soft lading -- and is getting ready to rebound again.
So if you add all those points together, you'll see a brighter future. That's what I'm going to teach in the doom-and-gloomer rehab.We'll even take Britney Spears -- though I don't know if we can get her to last for more than a day.But I really think there's a group of doom and gloomers out there that need to come to my rehab center and get adjusted to current reality in the global economy, and not keep overlaying what happened in 1985 and making that comparison.
From an economic standpoint, that argument really doesn't hold water.Remember, we also have about 2 billion more consumers in the world than we had at that time. Thank you, China. Thank you, Russia. Thank you, India.We have a huge amount of capital -- I mean the world is literally twice, almost three times as wealthy as it was then (fubarrio edit: oh yeah, brilliant....thank you Bank of Japan, thank you Federal Reserve). And we are just so much bigger, so much more powerful, so much more insulated from these specific shocks, that we just don't have that down risk. And that reality has really not been priced into stocks because I think when people understand how much safer from an economic standpoint this overall global economy is, they'll probably do one thing -- and that's price stocks even higher.
So, doom and gloomers, there's plenty of room in my rehab program. You guys are out of touch with reality, and you can use my help."
Holy cr@p. I could say so much. Suffice it to say, I disagree. But he's the one with the show on the "fair and balanced" network, so.....who's laughing?
Ciao for now,
fuBarrio
"You're so 'money'...and you don't even know it"
OK...a blog entry about Uruguay. (gasp!)One of the (first) interesting things that a newcomer notices when they arrive in Montevideo are the horsedrawn garbage carts doing battle with peugots, fiats, citroen's, city buses and large trucks in downtown city traffic.
My first evening in Montevideo, staying at a hotel on one of the busier commercial streets around 2 am I was woken up by the sound of clipping hooves on the pavement. Even as jaded as I am, it's hard not to smile when a horse trots by with a garbage cart stacked to the hilt -- looking a little bit like the grinch that stole christmas' overloaded sled.
Now, it turns out that these men are unfortunately jobless, and they dig through the dumpsters (dumpster dive) in order to find things to sell/recycle and are not part of the regular automated trucks which empty the dumpsters on a regular basis.
Almost invariably, *anyone* who has ever lived *anywhere* will wonder (usually outloud) why there isn't anyone given horsedrawn carriage rides for tourists. Now, certainly, Montevideo is not NYC, but during the summer months, the city is fairly overrun with tourists. I can't help but think that a couple of horsedrawn carriages could give *really* economical rides to a few tourists around a couple of strategically located neighborhoods and *clean up*.
There is obviously an ample supply of these horses (although i have yet to have anyone give me more than a guess as to where the homeless people get them or exactly how it works).
The Uruguayos are in general "ashamed" of the situation. I think their (generally) left leaning political beliefs see it as a failing of society. Since the left leaning politicians just recently retook power, horse drawn garbage carts could be one of those things that disappears from the streets of Montevideo.
Why in the world can't anyone here think even a little bit outside the box?
For all the conformity that gets driven into the skulls of Asians, I found all parts of Asia to have people who were *much* more enterprising than Uruguay.....Even communist *Beijing* two years after the Tiananmen square uprising...
I've actually heard younger Montevideans complain about the same thing. They say as soon as one person does something and it's successful, overnight you'll have 20 more.
The theories trying to explain this strange behaviour are multi and varied.
.....I've heard theories that they are "overeducated"/institutionalized.
Now, for me, I don't care. I find the slower pace of life, which i equate to Europe in the 1950's, quite charming, and frankly don't want to live in LA jr. or "the next Shanghai". However, most of the Uruguayos (especially the young ones) are NOT happy with the economic opportunities available them in the country. The foreigner with an imagination comes here and sees things as being "wide open". Meanwhile the local with commercial intiative and drive too often leaves the country to find opportunity elsewhere.
Hopefully (maybe) the Uruguayan inferiority complex is starting to recede a bit. For the first four or five months I was here I must have heard, "tell me fuBarrio *why* did you pick *Uruguay*?" (as a place to live). The intonation of this question was generally worded so that it could be interpreted as "why (in the world) did you pick uruguay (of all places. are you, like, a crazy person or something?)".....Since none of them had ever seen this blog, there was still some question as to my sanity.
By next tourist season, I'm going to convince (fund if necessary) one of these enterprising unemployed young people to get a couple carriages offering rides to tourists around the shoreline, the old city, parque rodo, a couple of the touristy neighborhoods or other parks....not like there is any shortage of people skilled at maneuvering horsedrawn carts through city streets....
The reason I'm letting the "cat out of the bag" and willing to lose my first mover advantage by posting here, is that I'm hoping someone else gets with the program and does it before me so I can focus on more important matters -- like finding a direct importer of twinky hostess snack cakes!!!
ciao,
fuBarrio
Saturday, February 24, 2007
The American Dream of "Loan Ownership"
--Isn't it interesting how someone who owes the bank is called a "home owner"?
I had a particularly insightful friend who owned a very nice home in one of San Francisco's more desirable neighborhoods. Back in 2000, when asked if he owned his home, he used to answer, "No, I pay the bank for the right to maintain it for them."
OK.....
So, while I've been away from the Internet I haven't been reading nearly as many conspiracy kook websites. Unfortunately, I didn't have cable tv either, so I wasn't I wasn't able to self-medicate away the voices in my head with a weekend marathon of"What's Happening?" reruns.
"So what are the voices saying, fuBarrio?"
They are saying that the unraveling that we've been predicting is underway.
"So why don't I see it fuBarrio?"
The answer is, because it's only just getting underway. Although the financial conditions that made this such a foregone conclusion have been in place for YEARS, the turn is only just now at hand.
"But, your predictions have been off in the past. Why should anyone listen to your paranoia now?"
Because this time the sky really is falling!!! :)
The reason that it isn't obvious to you yet is probably because of where you receive your information. As a public service to the three readers who read this blog now, I use the time afforded to me by my unemployment and partial disability settlement to bring you the BEST of all the and conspiracy nuts' information....kind of like a reader's digest of the universe of the "6 B's" crowd (bunkers-beans-bullets-bandaids-bottled water, and-bourbon).
"So what's going on that tells you the turn is at hand?"
Well for YEARS I've been scratching my head at the subprime mortgage market. Subprime, are the people who sell mortgages to Americans with bad credit ratings allowing them to get into overpriced stucco sh&t boxes.
For a lot of reasons, explained here previously, the subprime sellers of mortgages were involving themselves in the risky behaviour of putting people into loans that they knew the borrower had no chance of making good on.
Why?
Well, they weren't totally crazy. They made GREAT fees on these loans, and then packaged up the loans and resold them through "securitization" (big bundles) to larger institutions. The reasons these larger institutions would buy these dubious loans were that they were again packaged up and the risk was "hedged" away again....
....In fact, at this point, the risk has been packaged up and hedged away so many times that a good number of industry observers aren't even sure who exactly is holding the "bag" (so to speak) on these loans.
So why do I think it's starting to hit the fan? Well, subprime lending facilitators are starting to go out of business. As the lending standards tighten up on those most willing to lend to the most dubious it will create a series of chain reactions that will become a self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices and tightening credit.
At some point, if the tranches of higher quality paper get effected, the results could be catastrophic. The reason is, the higher quality paper is "geared" or leveraged in a much more aggressive way...The reason being that there is a much lower chance of default, theoretically.
I would opine in general that the people buying these securitized mortgage securities don't really have effective tools for evaluating the risk these securities are carrying with them. The smart ones, that do, have already hedged away the risk (theoretically) and taken a piece of the return in exchange for doing so.
In the end, if it ends badly enough, it will be shocking to everyone how many supposedly "safe" parking places for money were gearing in this low interest rate environment to increase returns on fixed asset pools and exposing themselves to joe-six-packs willingness and ability to continue paying increasing payments on a house that is already underwater and losing value daily.
....better clear the calendars of the banking committee members in congress now while they practice their best finger wagging and looks of shocked indignation when this festering turd comes to the surface in a very public way.
If you want to read more about what is going on already with the widening of risk spreads in the subprime crap check out Russ Winters' blog here. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=456
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. if you're wondering how to protect yourself, you must be new here. in case you are the fourth reader of my blog, to save you some time in reading all my maniacal old posts, buy a little bit of gold to go with all that worthless paper you are saving for your "retirement". if you're really ballsy, buy a uranium miner's stock with resources in the ground in geo-politically secure area of the world
I had a particularly insightful friend who owned a very nice home in one of San Francisco's more desirable neighborhoods. Back in 2000, when asked if he owned his home, he used to answer, "No, I pay the bank for the right to maintain it for them."
OK.....
So, while I've been away from the Internet I haven't been reading nearly as many conspiracy kook websites. Unfortunately, I didn't have cable tv either, so I wasn't I wasn't able to self-medicate away the voices in my head with a weekend marathon of"What's Happening?" reruns.
"So what are the voices saying, fuBarrio?"
They are saying that the unraveling that we've been predicting is underway.
"So why don't I see it fuBarrio?"
The answer is, because it's only just getting underway. Although the financial conditions that made this such a foregone conclusion have been in place for YEARS, the turn is only just now at hand.
"But, your predictions have been off in the past. Why should anyone listen to your paranoia now?"
Because this time the sky really is falling!!! :)
The reason that it isn't obvious to you yet is probably because of where you receive your information. As a public service to the three readers who read this blog now, I use the time afforded to me by my unemployment and partial disability settlement to bring you the BEST of all the and conspiracy nuts' information....kind of like a reader's digest of the universe of the "6 B's" crowd (bunkers-beans-bullets-bandaids-bottled water, and-bourbon).
"So what's going on that tells you the turn is at hand?"
Well for YEARS I've been scratching my head at the subprime mortgage market. Subprime, are the people who sell mortgages to Americans with bad credit ratings allowing them to get into overpriced stucco sh&t boxes.
For a lot of reasons, explained here previously, the subprime sellers of mortgages were involving themselves in the risky behaviour of putting people into loans that they knew the borrower had no chance of making good on.
Why?
Well, they weren't totally crazy. They made GREAT fees on these loans, and then packaged up the loans and resold them through "securitization" (big bundles) to larger institutions. The reasons these larger institutions would buy these dubious loans were that they were again packaged up and the risk was "hedged" away again....
....In fact, at this point, the risk has been packaged up and hedged away so many times that a good number of industry observers aren't even sure who exactly is holding the "bag" (so to speak) on these loans.
So why do I think it's starting to hit the fan? Well, subprime lending facilitators are starting to go out of business. As the lending standards tighten up on those most willing to lend to the most dubious it will create a series of chain reactions that will become a self-reinforcing cycle of falling asset prices and tightening credit.
At some point, if the tranches of higher quality paper get effected, the results could be catastrophic. The reason is, the higher quality paper is "geared" or leveraged in a much more aggressive way...The reason being that there is a much lower chance of default, theoretically.
I would opine in general that the people buying these securitized mortgage securities don't really have effective tools for evaluating the risk these securities are carrying with them. The smart ones, that do, have already hedged away the risk (theoretically) and taken a piece of the return in exchange for doing so.
In the end, if it ends badly enough, it will be shocking to everyone how many supposedly "safe" parking places for money were gearing in this low interest rate environment to increase returns on fixed asset pools and exposing themselves to joe-six-packs willingness and ability to continue paying increasing payments on a house that is already underwater and losing value daily.
....better clear the calendars of the banking committee members in congress now while they practice their best finger wagging and looks of shocked indignation when this festering turd comes to the surface in a very public way.
If you want to read more about what is going on already with the widening of risk spreads in the subprime crap check out Russ Winters' blog here. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=456
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. if you're wondering how to protect yourself, you must be new here. in case you are the fourth reader of my blog, to save you some time in reading all my maniacal old posts, buy a little bit of gold to go with all that worthless paper you are saving for your "retirement". if you're really ballsy, buy a uranium miner's stock with resources in the ground in geo-politically secure area of the world
Yeah....uh.....What was I going to say?
So, after week on endless week of waiting, fuBarrio is once again unleashed on the world at large and free to post all his meaningless, mindnumbing walls of text.
Have you ever had something really important to say, and then foolishly waited for someone else to pause to inhale midsentence before interrupting?....and then forgot what it was that you wanted to say?
STOP THE PRESSES!!!! fubarrio has nothing to say...So, without further adieu, I give you Golden Lotus for today's post:
hello everyone golden lotus here!
i am so sorry i have not written in a long time. for those of you that i know besitos, for those that i dont know huggs.
okay since i have recently converted to the dark side (fubarrio edit: eating meat), i have had the experience of getting ill and also not getting ill.
so for those that would like to purchase good meat in montevideo, i would suggest that you not buy your raw chicken, roasted chicken, or stuffed chicken at disco or devotto (fubarrio edit: grocery chains in montevideo)....or that chicken place called "c" something. it is not very clean and i'm not sure how long the chicken has been sitting on the counter.
so far, the meats that are pretty clean and fresh are at tienda (fubarrio edit: "tienda inglesa"). go there. i have not had the chance to go to geant, so i dont know about them. oh yeah, and be careful buying your seafood. seafood in the grocery stores is not very fresh (frozen) and i dont know how old the seafood is. you can not do the "sniff and scratch" test on the fish. so be careful...i have a fresh fish dude (monger i think is what he is called) and they have like a seafood resturant, id go there. if you want his info, just ask me.
and, dont get your chicken, fish, meat, and whatever type of meaty thing in the ferrias, unless you want to risk yucky, poopy, vomitty, and lose like 15 pounds a day.
i think that is why i am so skinny now...
that is all.
FREE TIBET
gl
Have you ever had something really important to say, and then foolishly waited for someone else to pause to inhale midsentence before interrupting?....and then forgot what it was that you wanted to say?
STOP THE PRESSES!!!! fubarrio has nothing to say...So, without further adieu, I give you Golden Lotus for today's post:
hello everyone golden lotus here!
i am so sorry i have not written in a long time. for those of you that i know besitos, for those that i dont know huggs.
okay since i have recently converted to the dark side (fubarrio edit: eating meat)
so for those that would like to purchase good meat in montevideo, i would suggest that you not buy your raw chicken, roasted chicken, or stuffed chicken at disco or devotto (fubarrio edit: grocery chains in montevideo)....or that chicken place called "c" something. it is not very clean and i'm not sure how long the chicken has been sitting on the counter.
so far, the meats that are pretty clean and fresh are at tienda (fubarrio edit: "tienda inglesa"). go there. i have not had the chance to go to geant, so i dont know about them. oh yeah, and be careful buying your seafood. seafood in the grocery stores is not very fresh (frozen) and i dont know how old the seafood is. you can not do the "sniff and scratch" test on the fish. so be careful...i have a fresh fish dude (monger i think is what he is called) and they have like a seafood resturant, id go there. if you want his info, just ask me.
and, dont get your chicken, fish, meat, and whatever type of meaty thing in the ferrias, unless you want to risk yucky, poopy, vomitty, and lose like 15 pounds a day.
i think that is why i am so skinny now...
that is all.
FREE TIBET
gl
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
This just in!!!
fuBarrio is STILL without Internet in his house!
ugh.
not exactly news, i know. i have some stuff to post, but can't just now.....i need the internet to do a *little bit* of fact checking before i spout off.
latest news is that i'm supposed to have a connection "manana". :) we'll see. until then, absolutely nothing has changed in my opinion about the markets (metals, energy, equity, real estate).
the trend is your friend.
peace,
fuBarrio
ugh.
not exactly news, i know. i have some stuff to post, but can't just now.....i need the internet to do a *little bit* of fact checking before i spout off.
latest news is that i'm supposed to have a connection "manana". :) we'll see. until then, absolutely nothing has changed in my opinion about the markets (metals, energy, equity, real estate).
the trend is your friend.
peace,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
80's Heavy Metal (shop)
A change of pace today.
No Uruguay. There will be no vague and cryptic trading advice. Just a story that popped into my mind after burning my finger last night from fuBarrio's childhood.
If you remember properly, fuBarrio is a Gen-X kid. Despite growing up with lots of "latchkey" friends, his home was not "broken", and his mother (for the era) was bordering on overprotective. Organized tackle football, motorcycles, and (gasp!) drivers licenses were the subjects of fierce battles in the fuBarrio liberation movement of 1969-1987....and not all of these battles were won by the freedom fighters.
That said, fuBarrio still attended public school. Many cultures have a "right of passage" where a boy moves into young adulthood around the age 11 or 12. Longview Washington had one of these as well. It was called "Monticello Middle School".
My own son is the same age now, and I can't imagine him being exposed to the same things. He doesn't live with me, but lives in my old home town, and understandably I was excited that he wouldn't be following in my footsteps to Monticello and instead attending the private school in the area.
Back then, things were really moving too fast for me to really take stock. But now, I can look back with a mixture of horror and amusement at the circus that was Monticello. While it's obvious that a bunch of adolescent kids can make for some interesting times...especially in the early 80's ("dazed and confused" time frame)....the things that really jump out at me as being bizarre were some of the adult "sanctioned" activities.
In fact, my humorous memory wasn't just from a sanctioned activity. It was a *requirement* for passing through the halls of Monticello as a young man. Mr Berglund's Metal Shop!
Mr Berglund had salt and pepper short cropped, slicked back hair and a small neatly trimmed moustache, and wire framed glasses. Nearly everything about Mr Berglund reminded one of a WWII era Nazi officer (at least as they were depicted to kids in the old movies)....every kid just knew he was in hiding and for some reason or another hadn't got the "memo" that he was supposed to go to South America.
Daring kids would snap out Nazi "seig heil" salutes behind his back....Often immediately after Mr Berglund had snapped off some some very directed orders.
Almost as if to mock us, Mr Berglund insisted on wearing a white labcoat/smock at all times. In retrospect, he was surely jutrying to protect his clothes from dirt and grime in the lab. However, coupled a with a young man's imagination, it made him appear as if he *was* some mad nazi scientist just emerging from an old school eugenics experiment -- science against nature in all its glory.
And, as par for the course (of course) Mr Berglund had a funny way of talking...a very "nasaly" quality, a speech impendiment perhaps, or an unplaceable accent. To this day I can't say "galvinized" without imitating his accent. But, keep in mind, a teacher the kids found strange would not an anecdote make. Mr Berglund was merely the ring leader of this circus.
Metal shop, a requirement for boys, if I remember correctly, was clearly some sort of throwback to America's heavy metal industrial past. A room with industrial height ceilings filled workbenches, benders/folders, lathes, grinders, acetyline torches, etc, with helpful warning posters strewn about warning the kids that improper use of any of the various and sundry peices of equipment could lead to loss of life and/or limb (literally).
Now, keep in mind, it wasn't just "willy nilly". Mr Berglund was very serious about safety and would generally show a Zabruder-esque quality film from 1950-something that demonstrated how to use one of these monstrosities without losing any of your 12 year old pink flesh in it. Then, Mr Berglund would do a quick "safety briefing" and demo of the equipment.
However, once the brief demo was over, kids were given a multitude of projects that involved demonstrating your capability on various tasks, self paced, and with only Mr Berglund to monitor a barrel of 30 monkeys in various parts of this large shop.
Imagine -- in one corner, two 11 year old kids in leather aprons and gloves pouring red hot molten aluminum into forms to create all manner of "forms" -- playboy bunnies, rolling stone lips, acdc album art, Copenhagen snuff logos, etc.
In another corner, a kid is sparking up the acetalyne torch to make a cut for his "table clamp". Another group are spot welding their "galvenized" sheet metal boxes. Meanwhile another group is sparking up an arc-welder (i sh*t you not) behind a screen to keep other kids from glancing over and scarring their retinas....but also keeping the one adult in the room from being able to actively observe to see if the kid is doing anything stupid.
As I said before Mr Berglund was serious about safety, and was quick to levy unusually large/stiff penalties for kids participating in what he perceived to be unsafe behaviour. The
reasons for this are obvious, but it had the side effect of leaving the more "minor" injuries unreported for fear of reprisals.
I specifically remember arc-welding for the first time -- unsupervised of course -- to fulfill one of the skills Mr Berglund's project was attempting to assess. Once done, he had been very clear that he wanted the kids to *remove* the heavy inflexible leather gloves, and raise the flash shield on the welding hood (obviously) before chipping off the "slag" -- left over, oxidized (i imagine) crap left on a weld after one is done.
Once this 11 year old chips off the slag, they should put the still *very* hot welded pieces into a bucket of cooling water until the steam stops erupting from the bucket.
I followed the earlier instructions and chipped off the blackened "slag" with my clunky gloves off....then, like an 11 year old, I laid the leather glove on top of the hot metal pieces and picked up the metal, using the glove like a chef would a baking pad to pick up a cookie sheet.
Of course, on the way to the bucket, my bare finger slipped past the edge of the glove and onto the metal, and luckily my reflexive drop landed the welded piece into the bucket. Of course, the incident went unreported and the rest of my day was spent pressing my blistered finger against the cold metal on the underside of my school desk framework in all my subsequent classes in an attempt to contain the mindnumbing pain.
To anyone over the age of 30, the description of Mr. Berglund and his metal shop probably doesn't sound all that strange....In fact, to some of you it probably sounds downright familiar! It only becomes interesting or amusing when juxtaposed with what is considered appropriate risk for children of the same age nowadays. I don't know what Monticello's educational requirements are now, but I'd be pretty suprised (even in an industrial town like Longview, WA) if it still exists in its past incarnation.
Delivering newspapers, mowing neighborhood lawns, and in some cases, even transporting themselves to and from school all seem to have gotten too "dangerous" or "inappropriate" for 11 and 12 year olds. The duty has fallen to Moms Dads, caretakers, nannies, and illegal aliens instead...Within that context, I have a hard time picturing the kids using the machine lathe in metal shop, unsupervised, to piece together intricate pipes and other assorted drug paraphenalia.....That said, if I get an alunimum cast, three-dimensional playboy bunny buffed to a mirror shine for father's day this year, I will stand corrected.
ciao,
fuBarrio
No Uruguay. There will be no vague and cryptic trading advice. Just a story that popped into my mind after burning my finger last night from fuBarrio's childhood.
If you remember properly, fuBarrio is a Gen-X kid. Despite growing up with lots of "latchkey" friends, his home was not "broken", and his mother (for the era) was bordering on overprotective. Organized tackle football, motorcycles, and (gasp!) drivers licenses were the subjects of fierce battles in the fuBarrio liberation movement of 1969-1987....and not all of these battles were won by the freedom fighters.
That said, fuBarrio still attended public school. Many cultures have a "right of passage" where a boy moves into young adulthood around the age 11 or 12. Longview Washington had one of these as well. It was called "Monticello Middle School".
My own son is the same age now, and I can't imagine him being exposed to the same things. He doesn't live with me, but lives in my old home town, and understandably I was excited that he wouldn't be following in my footsteps to Monticello and instead attending the private school in the area.
Back then, things were really moving too fast for me to really take stock. But now, I can look back with a mixture of horror and amusement at the circus that was Monticello. While it's obvious that a bunch of adolescent kids can make for some interesting times...especially in the early 80's ("dazed and confused" time frame)....the things that really jump out at me as being bizarre were some of the adult "sanctioned" activities.
In fact, my humorous memory wasn't just from a sanctioned activity. It was a *requirement* for passing through the halls of Monticello as a young man. Mr Berglund's Metal Shop!
Mr Berglund had salt and pepper short cropped, slicked back hair and a small neatly trimmed moustache, and wire framed glasses. Nearly everything about Mr Berglund reminded one of a WWII era Nazi officer (at least as they were depicted to kids in the old movies)....every kid just knew he was in hiding and for some reason or another hadn't got the "memo" that he was supposed to go to South America.
Daring kids would snap out Nazi "seig heil" salutes behind his back....Often immediately after Mr Berglund had snapped off some some very directed orders.
Almost as if to mock us, Mr Berglund insisted on wearing a white labcoat/smock at all times. In retrospect, he was surely jutrying to protect his clothes from dirt and grime in the lab. However, coupled a with a young man's imagination, it made him appear as if he *was* some mad nazi scientist just emerging from an old school eugenics experiment -- science against nature in all its glory.
And, as par for the course (of course) Mr Berglund had a funny way of talking...a very "nasaly" quality, a speech impendiment perhaps, or an unplaceable accent. To this day I can't say "galvinized" without imitating his accent. But, keep in mind, a teacher the kids found strange would not an anecdote make. Mr Berglund was merely the ring leader of this circus.
Metal shop, a requirement for boys, if I remember correctly, was clearly some sort of throwback to America's heavy metal industrial past. A room with industrial height ceilings filled workbenches, benders/folders, lathes, grinders, acetyline torches, etc, with helpful warning posters strewn about warning the kids that improper use of any of the various and sundry peices of equipment could lead to loss of life and/or limb (literally).
Now, keep in mind, it wasn't just "willy nilly". Mr Berglund was very serious about safety and would generally show a Zabruder-esque quality film from 1950-something that demonstrated how to use one of these monstrosities without losing any of your 12 year old pink flesh in it. Then, Mr Berglund would do a quick "safety briefing" and demo of the equipment.
However, once the brief demo was over, kids were given a multitude of projects that involved demonstrating your capability on various tasks, self paced, and with only Mr Berglund to monitor a barrel of 30 monkeys in various parts of this large shop.
Imagine -- in one corner, two 11 year old kids in leather aprons and gloves pouring red hot molten aluminum into forms to create all manner of "forms" -- playboy bunnies, rolling stone lips, acdc album art, Copenhagen snuff logos, etc.
In another corner, a kid is sparking up the acetalyne torch to make a cut for his "table clamp". Another group are spot welding their "galvenized" sheet metal boxes. Meanwhile another group is sparking up an arc-welder (i sh*t you not) behind a screen to keep other kids from glancing over and scarring their retinas....but also keeping the one adult in the room from being able to actively observe to see if the kid is doing anything stupid.
As I said before Mr Berglund was serious about safety, and was quick to levy unusually large/stiff penalties for kids participating in what he perceived to be unsafe behaviour. The
reasons for this are obvious, but it had the side effect of leaving the more "minor" injuries unreported for fear of reprisals.
I specifically remember arc-welding for the first time -- unsupervised of course -- to fulfill one of the skills Mr Berglund's project was attempting to assess. Once done, he had been very clear that he wanted the kids to *remove* the heavy inflexible leather gloves, and raise the flash shield on the welding hood (obviously) before chipping off the "slag" -- left over, oxidized (i imagine) crap left on a weld after one is done.
Once this 11 year old chips off the slag, they should put the still *very* hot welded pieces into a bucket of cooling water until the steam stops erupting from the bucket.
I followed the earlier instructions and chipped off the blackened "slag" with my clunky gloves off....then, like an 11 year old, I laid the leather glove on top of the hot metal pieces and picked up the metal, using the glove like a chef would a baking pad to pick up a cookie sheet.
Of course, on the way to the bucket, my bare finger slipped past the edge of the glove and onto the metal, and luckily my reflexive drop landed the welded piece into the bucket. Of course, the incident went unreported and the rest of my day was spent pressing my blistered finger against the cold metal on the underside of my school desk framework in all my subsequent classes in an attempt to contain the mindnumbing pain.
To anyone over the age of 30, the description of Mr. Berglund and his metal shop probably doesn't sound all that strange....In fact, to some of you it probably sounds downright familiar! It only becomes interesting or amusing when juxtaposed with what is considered appropriate risk for children of the same age nowadays. I don't know what Monticello's educational requirements are now, but I'd be pretty suprised (even in an industrial town like Longview, WA) if it still exists in its past incarnation.
Delivering newspapers, mowing neighborhood lawns, and in some cases, even transporting themselves to and from school all seem to have gotten too "dangerous" or "inappropriate" for 11 and 12 year olds. The duty has fallen to Moms Dads, caretakers, nannies, and illegal aliens instead...Within that context, I have a hard time picturing the kids using the machine lathe in metal shop, unsupervised, to piece together intricate pipes and other assorted drug paraphenalia.....That said, if I get an alunimum cast, three-dimensional playboy bunny buffed to a mirror shine for father's day this year, I will stand corrected.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, February 12, 2007
Barber, barber, shave a pig....
wow....gold is getting beat down in front of chinese new year!?!? what??? i'm *shocked*!
some info on retail investors moving to gold for the new year.
from the link: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/258096/1/.html
"SHANGHAI: Investment-grade gold bullions marking the "Year of the Pig" are getting an overwhelming response from investors in China. More than three tons of gold bars were sold out within a week.
Under no influence of the Midas touch, pigs in China are turning into gold, to satisfy a seemingly insatiable appetite for this chubby barnyard animal. Many believe the upcoming Lunar New Year is the Golden Pig Year. Falling only once every 60 years, it is one of the most auspicious periods of the Chinese zodiac, bringing the promise of wealth and fortune.
China, the world's third biggest gold buyer, is undoubtedly a gold loving nation. The Chinese perceive gold not only as a symbol of wealth and fortune, but also as a hedge against inflation. Combine this perennial love for gold with the arrival of the lucky Golden Pig Year and it is no wonder Chinese jewellers are now "squealing" with delight. But Chinese consumers are going beyond gold jewellery or ornaments - they are becoming keen and serious investors in gold.
China Gold Coin was the first jeweller in China to issue investment-grade gold bars in 2002. A Year of the Goat then, only 1.2 tonnes of gold bars were issued with prices hovering around 92 yuan or about US$11 a gram. The bullions were sold out within a week. Li Jian, Marketing Manager, Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co. Ltd, said, "Everyone is saying it's the Year of the Golden Pig, so to meet this demand, we increased the issue to 3 tonnes this year. Sales were still overwhelming, it took only one week and everything was sold out."
The overwhelming popularity of these gold bars is due largely to a buy-back option. Buyers can cash the bullion in at any time, with buy-back prices based on gold prices in local and international markets. Gold prices have jumped more than 70 percent since the first batch of bars went on sale in 2002. Li Jian, Marketing Manager, Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co. Ltd, said, "The ability to preserve its value is an important function of gold. We've set up several 'buy-back' outlets in the country, we sell but also buy back (the bullions); so it can become a kind of investment. "
The Chinese love gold, and since the set up of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our market has gradually opened up; and so the demand for gold will probably grow even bigger." Gold is becoming a popular investment alternative in China amid the current sluggish property market and low bank deposit rates. - CNA/ms "
some info on retail investors moving to gold for the new year.
from the link: http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/eastasia/view/258096/1/.html
"SHANGHAI: Investment-grade gold bullions marking the "Year of the Pig" are getting an overwhelming response from investors in China. More than three tons of gold bars were sold out within a week.
Under no influence of the Midas touch, pigs in China are turning into gold, to satisfy a seemingly insatiable appetite for this chubby barnyard animal. Many believe the upcoming Lunar New Year is the Golden Pig Year. Falling only once every 60 years, it is one of the most auspicious periods of the Chinese zodiac, bringing the promise of wealth and fortune.
China, the world's third biggest gold buyer, is undoubtedly a gold loving nation. The Chinese perceive gold not only as a symbol of wealth and fortune, but also as a hedge against inflation. Combine this perennial love for gold with the arrival of the lucky Golden Pig Year and it is no wonder Chinese jewellers are now "squealing" with delight. But Chinese consumers are going beyond gold jewellery or ornaments - they are becoming keen and serious investors in gold.
China Gold Coin was the first jeweller in China to issue investment-grade gold bars in 2002. A Year of the Goat then, only 1.2 tonnes of gold bars were issued with prices hovering around 92 yuan or about US$11 a gram. The bullions were sold out within a week. Li Jian, Marketing Manager, Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co. Ltd, said, "Everyone is saying it's the Year of the Golden Pig, so to meet this demand, we increased the issue to 3 tonnes this year. Sales were still overwhelming, it took only one week and everything was sold out."
The overwhelming popularity of these gold bars is due largely to a buy-back option. Buyers can cash the bullion in at any time, with buy-back prices based on gold prices in local and international markets. Gold prices have jumped more than 70 percent since the first batch of bars went on sale in 2002. Li Jian, Marketing Manager, Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Co. Ltd, said, "The ability to preserve its value is an important function of gold. We've set up several 'buy-back' outlets in the country, we sell but also buy back (the bullions); so it can become a kind of investment. "
The Chinese love gold, and since the set up of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our market has gradually opened up; and so the demand for gold will probably grow even bigger." Gold is becoming a popular investment alternative in China amid the current sluggish property market and low bank deposit rates. - CNA/ms "
Tuesday, February 06, 2007
"Hammer TIme"
fuBarrio stirred momentarily this morning, at first thinking that possibly it was his head still pounding from an evening of libations at the Southron’s house cheering on Copperhead’s ill-fated Chicago Bears. But, that couldn’t be. The “big game” was Sunday and this was Tuesday morning.
While fuBarrio has been quick to praise Montevideo’s “dense” living….principally because of the benefits to having walkable neighborhoods and commercial centers. The price of such lofty platitudes are that when your upstairs “neighbor” decides to hammer out the tile, plaster, and pipes in their bathroom at 8am, rest assured the cinderblock acts as more of an amplifying noise medium than a barrier of any kind.
By 8:30 fuBarrio was wide awake, grumpy, and busily outlining his “manifesto”, browsing online for single room cabins deep in the Uruguayan interior, and packing a suitcase full of hoodys and ’74 Elvis shades. Unfortunately, after several attempts at Google, fuBarrio could find no way to implement the “mechanical Internet”, and started suspecting that going “off the grid” might have negative repercussions.
After several more searches he found a cookbook whose main ingredients tended to be wheatgrass, twigs, berries and tree-bark. Much to fuBarrio’s dismay however, after trying to master recipe #37, “sea-foam filled coral-sponge”, he started to lose hope for finding any kind of hostess Twinkies analogue in nature….Strike two.
The third strike came when the guy at the gun store told fuBarrio about some b.s. “7-day mandatory waiting period” for M-60 sales and .30 caliber ammunition in excess of 15k rounds would have to be back ordered…..Holy cow…move to the other side of the world and the wheels of whole JIT delivery systems start falling apart.
What was he going to do now?
A frazzled fuBarrio was chewing nervously on his back paw, cataract-encrusted eyes shifting nervously about. Around the time fuBarrio was looking for even more dangerous alternatives to a radical luddite existence, our landlord called and told us the construction on the upstairs bathroom would “only” be going on for about a week, and if he needed a peaceful place to work he was welcome to come over and use her home office – complete with AC and ADSL.
The day is saved!
Overpaid technologists can go about their otherwise meaningless lives creating mindless gadgetry and solutions in search of problems free from fear from fuBarrio’s destructive creativity. The news was so good and timely that Golden Lotus decided not to press her luck by asking if the landlord happened to have a week's supply of Twinkie snack cakes on hand.
While fuBarrio has been quick to praise Montevideo’s “dense” living….principally because of the benefits to having walkable neighborhoods and commercial centers. The price of such lofty platitudes are that when your upstairs “neighbor” decides to hammer out the tile, plaster, and pipes in their bathroom at 8am, rest assured the cinderblock acts as more of an amplifying noise medium than a barrier of any kind.
By 8:30 fuBarrio was wide awake, grumpy, and busily outlining his “manifesto”, browsing online for single room cabins deep in the Uruguayan interior, and packing a suitcase full of hoodys and ’74 Elvis shades. Unfortunately, after several attempts at Google, fuBarrio could find no way to implement the “mechanical Internet”, and started suspecting that going “off the grid” might have negative repercussions.
After several more searches he found a cookbook whose main ingredients tended to be wheatgrass, twigs, berries and tree-bark. Much to fuBarrio’s dismay however, after trying to master recipe #37, “sea-foam filled coral-sponge”, he started to lose hope for finding any kind of hostess Twinkies analogue in nature….Strike two.
The third strike came when the guy at the gun store told fuBarrio about some b.s. “7-day mandatory waiting period” for M-60 sales and .30 caliber ammunition in excess of 15k rounds would have to be back ordered…..Holy cow…move to the other side of the world and the wheels of whole JIT delivery systems start falling apart.
What was he going to do now?
A frazzled fuBarrio was chewing nervously on his back paw, cataract-encrusted eyes shifting nervously about. Around the time fuBarrio was looking for even more dangerous alternatives to a radical luddite existence, our landlord called and told us the construction on the upstairs bathroom would “only” be going on for about a week, and if he needed a peaceful place to work he was welcome to come over and use her home office – complete with AC and ADSL.
The day is saved!
Overpaid technologists can go about their otherwise meaningless lives creating mindless gadgetry and solutions in search of problems free from fear from fuBarrio’s destructive creativity. The news was so good and timely that Golden Lotus decided not to press her luck by asking if the landlord happened to have a week's supply of Twinkie snack cakes on hand.
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