Not suprisingly, I guess, a lot of people are pretty down on the US these days and calling for economic malaise -- with prognostications running from "slower growth" (Bush administration) to "Greater Depression" (most of the tin-foil hat economic blogsters).
While, there seems to be an "argument" between the "deflationary" malaise (1930's US, 1990's Japan) and "inflationary" (1970's US, Gernam Weimar Republic 1920's) camps, I have been careful to try to walk in both worlds.
(technically, inflation is creation of new money (or credit) -- deflation is removal of said money or credit. In this case I'm talking about "price inflation" which is a symptom of the former)
My feeling was that:
asset prices (stocks, non govt bonds, real estate) would deflate, while the price of things that you need to live your "everyday life" would inflate.
The idea was that the availability of money for assets would disappear -- and drive down the ability of people to speculate in them. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, in trying to maintain the status quo of high asset prices would create additional liquidity. However, that liquidity would find a home chasing "things that the Chinese and Indians are buying" -- commodities and the raw material inputs for a society growing into "first world" status.
So far, whether that was the real reason that things have played out as predicted or not, that has worked out. However, this week, for some reason, the "wheels" came off that trade.
What happened to my account balance?
With this background in place I want to talk about what I saw in the markets today. Financial stocks were whipsawing wildly. Commodities, and commodity stocks were all under severe pressure most of the entire week.
While it's probably more important (and often smarter) to just follow the markets and not try to understand what is going on in the moment, I'm not geared to do that. And, that's why I'll probably never be a good trader. So, in here I'll attempt to explain what *I* think is driving the market activity of the last few days.
Bear Stearns -- obviously the Bear Stearns collapse was a huge event, for a lot of reasons. The most important was that it scared the bejeebus out of a bunch of people in the FED, the Treasury, the Admin, on Wall Street, Fannie, Freddie, and OFHEO.
Basically EVERYONE went to battle stations and immediately started damage control.
The FED slashed rates .75 points.
The FED cut the discount window rate by .25
The FED now allows non-banks, organizations that it does not directly monitor or control or oversee in any way to give it collateral of dubious value (home loans basically) and in return give out CHEAP loans of treasury paper which can be sold on the open market by these non-banks (think JP Morgain, Goldman Sachs, Lehman, etc.)
Why this is important is that while banks are subject to capital restrictions that cap their use of leverage around 7-1, the investment banks are not....They and their hedge fund clients often use 2 to 4 times as much leverage.
OFHEO relaxed restrictions that Fannie and Freddie were under (for failure to accurately report financials! in the past) and are letting these institutions "gear up" their leverage even further into the face of a declining Real Estate market.
Wall Street investment banks, in a bit of a panic i believe, have begun calling in the leverage being used by their hedge fund clients.
Many of these hedge funds had gone "short" the financials, and long on commodities (fuBarrio's trade for the last couple of years) and this has become a very crowded trade. As the hedge funds are all racing for the door simultaneously it's creating a massive short squeeze in the financials and a quick butchering in the commodity complex.
Meanwhile back in the Bond pits.....
US short term treasuries are now yielding .5% per annum on a 3 month. That's the lowest on record. And, according to Karl Denniger http://market-ticker.denninger.net you could actually execute a "reverse carry trade" on the Japanese the yield is so low.
Denninger explains it as black and white:
1.) either the bond guys (who move many billions of dollars btw) don't know that they are doing, or
2.) we are entering a massive deflationary collapse on the scale of the Great Depression.
I've just started reading Denninger in the last month or so, but he is the best I've found online in trying to explain the gordian knot we've created for ourselves with this debt mess. He does a posting pretty much every trading day.
Good luck, everyone. At this point, I've paired back my exposure to the precious metals to just my "core holding" which is more of an "inflation hedge" than a spec that we are taking off while I'm still looking to go short on runups.....again a very crowded trade, and likely not that profitable until people start relaxin a little more.
If gold can somehow carve out a nice round bottom in the 800's.....retest the 1000....and pullback momentarily, we will be looking at a classic cup and handle after a big up move and i would be recommending to go in very long, perhaps in a leveraged way to catch a big upmove. Now, is not that time yet.
If you are not a trader, and have actually read this far, and wondering what you should do to protect yourself in case things continue to get "nasty" out there....get out of debt, stock up on food and cash, stay in touch with friends and family, (move to south america :) ), and get a gold coin or two and a little silver "just in case".
ciao,
fuBarrio
Friday, March 21, 2008
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold Price -- Lunchtime Musings
Just a quick break from the workday to follow up on my last post.
In my last post, I pointed out that I had a "sense" that things were getting ready to "turn"....meaning the trends:
commodities higher
dollar lower
US financials lower
US stock market lower (in general)
...were all getting ready to reverse for a "pause that refreshes".
In light of the recent activity, I think we've seen that turn. Nearly all of the commodities have turned lower, the dollar bounced (slightly), US financials had a "snap back" rebound after the bear stearns news broke, and the US stock market had a powerful up day.
While I think that all of these "counter-trend" moves could carry on, I'm not willing to gamble on them anymore.
I'm moving to a "neutral" stance and I'm waiting like a panther to pounce on some of these things again. The only thing that bothers me is the speed with which this "snapback" took place. I was hoping for a couple of week move to cover the same ground.
I found a post backing my "sense" (at least in gold) that said that gold was ripe for a fall back to the bottom of an upchannel move down to spot 940 range. That was the number I was looking for, but given the speed with which we've fallen to that number, I'm not going to go "all in" yet....the counter trend rally *could* erase up to half of the previous gains from the recent move (and if something fundamentally shifts even more).
If we are lucky enough to have this retracement drag out a little bit longer to shake off some of the speculative "froth" in the gold market, it could set up for a very nice move upwards again.....for that we'd need to see the volatility calm down and the price of gold to move back into the back pages of the financial news rags.
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. the BIGGEST news (buried in the Bear Stearn debacle) was the fact that the OFHEO opened up fannie and freddie's ability to use their capital to loan out more money. in other words, from my understanding they *relaxed* their capital restrictions....again, in other words, from my understanding, they are letting them lever UP into a DECLINING market.
for the love of God this can only be a way for the investment banks hedge funds and other deer caught in the headlights to pawn off their crap onto an organization that is ostensibly under an implicit guarantee for taxapayers to backt them.
oh....p.p.s. fed funds rate is now 2.25 and i'm starting to go short the US financials again, regardless of what the technicians say. This bear market rally could last a couple of months but I believe another bank or banking institution will fail (probably more). At some point the federal reserve and the american people will run out of patience and balance sheet to keep propping them up....then....it's ......GD part II.
In my last post, I pointed out that I had a "sense" that things were getting ready to "turn"....meaning the trends:
commodities higher
dollar lower
US financials lower
US stock market lower (in general)
...were all getting ready to reverse for a "pause that refreshes".
In light of the recent activity, I think we've seen that turn. Nearly all of the commodities have turned lower, the dollar bounced (slightly), US financials had a "snap back" rebound after the bear stearns news broke, and the US stock market had a powerful up day.
While I think that all of these "counter-trend" moves could carry on, I'm not willing to gamble on them anymore.
I'm moving to a "neutral" stance and I'm waiting like a panther to pounce on some of these things again. The only thing that bothers me is the speed with which this "snapback" took place. I was hoping for a couple of week move to cover the same ground.
I found a post backing my "sense" (at least in gold) that said that gold was ripe for a fall back to the bottom of an upchannel move down to spot 940 range. That was the number I was looking for, but given the speed with which we've fallen to that number, I'm not going to go "all in" yet....the counter trend rally *could* erase up to half of the previous gains from the recent move (and if something fundamentally shifts even more).
If we are lucky enough to have this retracement drag out a little bit longer to shake off some of the speculative "froth" in the gold market, it could set up for a very nice move upwards again.....for that we'd need to see the volatility calm down and the price of gold to move back into the back pages of the financial news rags.
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. the BIGGEST news (buried in the Bear Stearn debacle) was the fact that the OFHEO opened up fannie and freddie's ability to use their capital to loan out more money. in other words, from my understanding they *relaxed* their capital restrictions....again, in other words, from my understanding, they are letting them lever UP into a DECLINING market.
for the love of God this can only be a way for the investment banks hedge funds and other deer caught in the headlights to pawn off their crap onto an organization that is ostensibly under an implicit guarantee for taxapayers to backt them.
oh....p.p.s. fed funds rate is now 2.25 and i'm starting to go short the US financials again, regardless of what the technicians say. This bear market rally could last a couple of months but I believe another bank or banking institution will fail (probably more). At some point the federal reserve and the american people will run out of patience and balance sheet to keep propping them up....then....it's ......GD part II.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Paloma, Uruguay
Tried to drive out to Punta Del Diablo the other day and just gave up after several hours on the road and starting to lose the sun.
We cut about an hour off the trip by going to Paloma instead.
interesting little town with an amazing number of restaurants. It must be very busy with tourists during the "season". Right now we are sort of in the "shoulder season" and it didn't seem nearly as busy. i'm curious how many of those restaurants are open in the winter as well.
So, obviously they have a beach. The sand isn't great quality though compared to lots of other beaches in Uruguay, although it is wide and flat. Good for beach soccer....
The "ladies" (midori and golden lotus) enjoyed the waves and playing "fetch" (aka keepaway) in the sand. fubarrio, hid from the sun under an umbrella most of the afternoon.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
You're FIRED - Finance Insurance Real Estate
FIRE, which is some acronym that stands for Finance (loans), Insurance & Real Estate -- the heart of the "service economy" I guess....Apparently, the only place where regular Amercans were making any money anymore....at least until things cracked up.
Well, remember when I said that there was a good chance that fubarrio would cease to exist and fubarrio.com would descend into an oozing cesspool of commercialism?
Well, even from blatant commercialism there is something to be learned.
What's that you say?
Well, apparently, some member of the finance (loans) and insurance industries have figured out that paying for links on subject matter blogs like this one can enhance their search engine placements in what would otherwise be insanely expensive spaces to compete.
I got an email from a gal out of the UK that apparently shakes an stirs the blog universe a couple of times looking for blogs that actually have enough sway where they can actually (slowly) effect the rankings for the sites on google (among other search engines).
The other thing they've figured out is that balding dogs with bad breath and crooked teeth can be had for pennies on the pound sterling.
She pays a couple of "quid' a month for a link and probably charges the company she's placing it for considerably more -- (hooray intermediaries)
Well, as it turns out -- another free internet marketing tip from your uncle fubarrio -- if you place a link with anchor text in a DEEP link (meaning deep within some content that seems to fit what it is the link is going to) it tends to perform much better.
While they didn't really ask for my to create a blog post about loans or insurance, I decided to anyways as a freebie sendoff for my commercial friends....wow...people actually make money with this internet thing? I'll have to look into that.
Anyhow, you know my personal opinion on debt by now. It's a giant ponzi scheme that is bound to be the end of us all.
Insurance i haven't talked a lot about.
I remember when I was a younger pup at the UW I was studying finance. I had delusional dreams of becoming an investment banker after spending some time as an analyst for Fidelity. Little did I know that the titans of wall street were more likely to hire a shoe shine boy outside the floor of one of the exchanges than to hire out of an unheard of pac-10 university.
I remember i went in to talk to the college career counselor (this university has something like 35k students). She said in the entire time she'd been there (10 years) she only knew of one person who had graduated from UW and went to work on wall street (!)
In the late nineties I knew of at least one other, but it was as struggle for him....he was making 35,000/year in Manhatten! He was working crazy hours as an anlyst for some "fourth tier" investment bank :) He gradually worked his way up to one of the more respected banks before bailing to get his MBA and a more relaxing lifestyle in Intel's Treasury Department.
Ok, well, if this deep link doesn't give someone's website a boost....I don't know what will....
Be informed about your life insurance Hey, I mean, that sounds like good advice right? I always likened the life insurance folks to casino types though...it's like...hey, if this is such a great deal, how did you pay for such a huge building?
Loans to get your finances in shape. This link I have to say is almost oxymoronic....
If you want to get your finances in shape...stop taking out loans! Maybe they are gonna tell you that they can consolidate your credit cards, etc etc etc. I dunno. Call me a ludite, or a neo fundamentalist or something, but giving loans to americans is kinda like giving whisky to the indians....or keyboards to the English.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Well, remember when I said that there was a good chance that fubarrio would cease to exist and fubarrio.com would descend into an oozing cesspool of commercialism?
Well, even from blatant commercialism there is something to be learned.
What's that you say?
Well, apparently, some member of the finance (loans) and insurance industries have figured out that paying for links on subject matter blogs like this one can enhance their search engine placements in what would otherwise be insanely expensive spaces to compete.
I got an email from a gal out of the UK that apparently shakes an stirs the blog universe a couple of times looking for blogs that actually have enough sway where they can actually (slowly) effect the rankings for the sites on google (among other search engines).
The other thing they've figured out is that balding dogs with bad breath and crooked teeth can be had for pennies on the pound sterling.
She pays a couple of "quid' a month for a link and probably charges the company she's placing it for considerably more -- (hooray intermediaries)
Well, as it turns out -- another free internet marketing tip from your uncle fubarrio -- if you place a link with anchor text in a DEEP link (meaning deep within some content that seems to fit what it is the link is going to) it tends to perform much better.
While they didn't really ask for my to create a blog post about loans or insurance, I decided to anyways as a freebie sendoff for my commercial friends....wow...people actually make money with this internet thing? I'll have to look into that.
Anyhow, you know my personal opinion on debt by now. It's a giant ponzi scheme that is bound to be the end of us all.
Insurance i haven't talked a lot about.
I remember when I was a younger pup at the UW I was studying finance. I had delusional dreams of becoming an investment banker after spending some time as an analyst for Fidelity. Little did I know that the titans of wall street were more likely to hire a shoe shine boy outside the floor of one of the exchanges than to hire out of an unheard of pac-10 university.
I remember i went in to talk to the college career counselor (this university has something like 35k students). She said in the entire time she'd been there (10 years) she only knew of one person who had graduated from UW and went to work on wall street (!)
In the late nineties I knew of at least one other, but it was as struggle for him....he was making 35,000/year in Manhatten! He was working crazy hours as an anlyst for some "fourth tier" investment bank :) He gradually worked his way up to one of the more respected banks before bailing to get his MBA and a more relaxing lifestyle in Intel's Treasury Department.
Ok, well, if this deep link doesn't give someone's website a boost....I don't know what will....
Be informed about your life insurance Hey, I mean, that sounds like good advice right? I always likened the life insurance folks to casino types though...it's like...hey, if this is such a great deal, how did you pay for such a huge building?
Loans to get your finances in shape. This link I have to say is almost oxymoronic....
If you want to get your finances in shape...stop taking out loans! Maybe they are gonna tell you that they can consolidate your credit cards, etc etc etc. I dunno. Call me a ludite, or a neo fundamentalist or something, but giving loans to americans is kinda like giving whisky to the indians....or keyboards to the English.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Nuclear "Indian Summer"
Excuse my absence from posting anything lately.
It's a bit ironic, because I actually have quite a bit to say. It's just a matter of trying to organize it all into some sort of coherent thought process that someone could reasonably follow. Now, THAT is going to a take a little doing....but here it goes:
Get Your Affairs in Order Redux
In my orginal post "Get Your Affairs in Order" I posited that the US dollar was enjoying what would be a short counter trend rally -- perhaps lasting for one or two months, and after that rally the bottom would fall out.
For those that live on the dollar and are already cutting it pretty close to the bone in regards to "disposable income" (see: fubarrio!) my advice was to hedge away some of this risk. I think suggested that gold would be one of the most efficient ways of accomplishing this.
Since that orginal post, as predicted, all hell broke loose to the downside on the dollar, and things we use to "heat and eat" (commodities priced globally that we must compete for globally with depreciated dollars) have obviously soared.
So why do I bring this up now? Just to gloat? (yes, a little gloating is in order, but that's not why!)
What prompted me to post the orginal "get your affairs in order" and to speculate that some time remained for people to do just that was that there was a good deal of *manipulation* in the marketplace as the dollar approached significant psychological "points of no return"
If you remember, "support and resistence" -- theoretical "lines in the sand" are psychologically important price points for a given asset or security. While these fundamentally have no reason to exist (usually), the market is made up of people who have psychological motivations for the way they price things.
Important support prices (prices through which a given security seems "unwilling" to go under) or resistance (prices a given security has a hard time "breaking through") can be for any number of reasons. The most common are: round numbers, and places where significant bottoms or tops in price action were formed previously.
Right now, we've bounced off some important psychological levels, with a little help of overt market manipulation by the powers that be. They have in effect halted the "nuclear autumn" and put the warm sunshine of capital appreciation back on your face for an extended "nuclear indian summer".
Well, as soon as the warm snap is over, guess what....getting ready for "nuclear winter".
Gold at $1,000/oz
Gold "printed" 1,000/oz in the spot market today for the first time ever. This is a signficantly psychological price barrier and it is pretty unlikely that a security like gold could just power through without going back to "retest" the 1000/oz mark to see if it could act as "support".
Gold has since pulled back, but without doing any detailed analysis, this is NOT where you typically see a multi-year high. Gold should hit the 4 digit mark a few more times with small pull backs before approaching the 1000 absent any news. Then "magically" some news supportive of gold will probably appear to "explain" a breakthrough past the 1,000 mark in a significant
way.
Dollar/Yen at 100
The Yen has *soared* in recent months. And, as many pundits expected his 100/dollar this a.m. It has since backed off fractionally. But with US inflation hitting asian shores look for them to continue to let their currencies appreciate (longer term) to fight off food inflation. While Japan is not China, Chinese appreciation gives Japan more breathing room (i believe) to let their currency inflate against the USD
Oil at 110/barrel
Does that number just sound "high" to anyone else? Good God. :)
Nat gas over $10/MBTU
I guess the unseasonably warm winter didn't materialize this year in the North and we see what happened to nat gas.
S&P at 1305, 1290, 1270, DJIA under 12k
OK. This is why I think that we could see some shorter term "counter trend" moves in all the aforementioned.
To any casual observer, the "great news" out of the treasury, or out of congress, the white house, or the FED (pick your day, and pick your 'suprise' announcement) just seems like (somewhat) normal newsflow.
To anyone who has been tradin for more than a week, the timing of the newsflow is VERY suspicious (to be kind). The FED, the treasury, and probably the president's working group on capital markets (AKA the "plunge protection team") have been waging a massive war of PR....
Now, if you are LONG in the dollar, or the US markets you may not notice. If you are NOT it seems very contrived.
It seems that no longer is the FED's mandate to "promote full employment" and "promote price stability" -- unless said "price stability" extends to exotic mortgage derivatives to the expense of bread for the people!
The FED has REPEATEDLY announced massive "bailout", special loans, dramatic rate cuts, liquidity injections, etc. totaling in the many 100's of billions of dollars.....All executed (even when done BETWEEN meetings --- a very rare time to announce rate moves) *right* when the markets seemed poised to cascade down off of major price support.
The FED's move seems to have been aimed at "shock and awe" (not sure if they are using this term but the media is) of the short sellers and other would be "bears".
Now, if you're long the US stock market or getting ready to retire in a couple of years you might think this is a good thing. But, sadly this is most certainly NOT a good thing. Because these injections of liquidity have to come at the expense of something ... and it's coming at the expense of the dollar....the result is rising prices for us as a way to socialize and subsidize the largess of the irresponsible lending institutions and their multi-million (and in some cases billion)dollar/year CEOs.
All the while, helping to "support" prices for the collateral underlying this mess (the houses and real estate itself) does NOTHING to address affordability for you and me who have to actually buy these mcstucco sh&t boxes at some point.
Government intervention in markets -- where markets are allowed to go up --- but not allowed to come down, can only end in a disaster. Unfortunately those gaining the most from their manipulations will NOT be those that suffer from the coming collapse.
SO....in summary.....the manipulations are giving you a chance.....we may see some stability in the dollar and maybe even a little "dead cat" bounce in the markets. Use that as an opportunity to move your 401k money into something that doesn't rely on financial stocks.
If/when govt intervention fails we will see a massive and spectacular bank failure (or two or more) and by all rights the GSE fannie mae is probably insolvent right now....it's just not admitting it yet.
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. as always, none of this constitutes investment advice. If you're crazy enough to accept investment advice from a blind, hairless dog on the internet with no dental plan, then expect to look like fubarrio in a couple of years.
It's a bit ironic, because I actually have quite a bit to say. It's just a matter of trying to organize it all into some sort of coherent thought process that someone could reasonably follow. Now, THAT is going to a take a little doing....but here it goes:
Get Your Affairs in Order Redux
In my orginal post "Get Your Affairs in Order" I posited that the US dollar was enjoying what would be a short counter trend rally -- perhaps lasting for one or two months, and after that rally the bottom would fall out.
For those that live on the dollar and are already cutting it pretty close to the bone in regards to "disposable income" (see: fubarrio!) my advice was to hedge away some of this risk. I think suggested that gold would be one of the most efficient ways of accomplishing this.
Since that orginal post, as predicted, all hell broke loose to the downside on the dollar, and things we use to "heat and eat" (commodities priced globally that we must compete for globally with depreciated dollars) have obviously soared.
So why do I bring this up now? Just to gloat? (yes, a little gloating is in order, but that's not why!)
What prompted me to post the orginal "get your affairs in order" and to speculate that some time remained for people to do just that was that there was a good deal of *manipulation* in the marketplace as the dollar approached significant psychological "points of no return"
If you remember, "support and resistence" -- theoretical "lines in the sand" are psychologically important price points for a given asset or security. While these fundamentally have no reason to exist (usually), the market is made up of people who have psychological motivations for the way they price things.
Important support prices (prices through which a given security seems "unwilling" to go under) or resistance (prices a given security has a hard time "breaking through") can be for any number of reasons. The most common are: round numbers, and places where significant bottoms or tops in price action were formed previously.
Right now, we've bounced off some important psychological levels, with a little help of overt market manipulation by the powers that be. They have in effect halted the "nuclear autumn" and put the warm sunshine of capital appreciation back on your face for an extended "nuclear indian summer".
Well, as soon as the warm snap is over, guess what....getting ready for "nuclear winter".
Gold at $1,000/oz
Gold "printed" 1,000/oz in the spot market today for the first time ever. This is a signficantly psychological price barrier and it is pretty unlikely that a security like gold could just power through without going back to "retest" the 1000/oz mark to see if it could act as "support".
Gold has since pulled back, but without doing any detailed analysis, this is NOT where you typically see a multi-year high. Gold should hit the 4 digit mark a few more times with small pull backs before approaching the 1000 absent any news. Then "magically" some news supportive of gold will probably appear to "explain" a breakthrough past the 1,000 mark in a significant
way.
Dollar/Yen at 100
The Yen has *soared* in recent months. And, as many pundits expected his 100/dollar this a.m. It has since backed off fractionally. But with US inflation hitting asian shores look for them to continue to let their currencies appreciate (longer term) to fight off food inflation. While Japan is not China, Chinese appreciation gives Japan more breathing room (i believe) to let their currency inflate against the USD
Oil at 110/barrel
Does that number just sound "high" to anyone else? Good God. :)
Nat gas over $10/MBTU
I guess the unseasonably warm winter didn't materialize this year in the North and we see what happened to nat gas.
S&P at 1305, 1290, 1270, DJIA under 12k
OK. This is why I think that we could see some shorter term "counter trend" moves in all the aforementioned.
To any casual observer, the "great news" out of the treasury, or out of congress, the white house, or the FED (pick your day, and pick your 'suprise' announcement) just seems like (somewhat) normal newsflow.
To anyone who has been tradin for more than a week, the timing of the newsflow is VERY suspicious (to be kind). The FED, the treasury, and probably the president's working group on capital markets (AKA the "plunge protection team") have been waging a massive war of PR....
Now, if you are LONG in the dollar, or the US markets you may not notice. If you are NOT it seems very contrived.
It seems that no longer is the FED's mandate to "promote full employment" and "promote price stability" -- unless said "price stability" extends to exotic mortgage derivatives to the expense of bread for the people!
The FED has REPEATEDLY announced massive "bailout", special loans, dramatic rate cuts, liquidity injections, etc. totaling in the many 100's of billions of dollars.....All executed (even when done BETWEEN meetings --- a very rare time to announce rate moves) *right* when the markets seemed poised to cascade down off of major price support.
The FED's move seems to have been aimed at "shock and awe" (not sure if they are using this term but the media is) of the short sellers and other would be "bears".
Now, if you're long the US stock market or getting ready to retire in a couple of years you might think this is a good thing. But, sadly this is most certainly NOT a good thing. Because these injections of liquidity have to come at the expense of something ... and it's coming at the expense of the dollar....the result is rising prices for us as a way to socialize and subsidize the largess of the irresponsible lending institutions and their multi-million (and in some cases billion)dollar/year CEOs.
All the while, helping to "support" prices for the collateral underlying this mess (the houses and real estate itself) does NOTHING to address affordability for you and me who have to actually buy these mcstucco sh&t boxes at some point.
Government intervention in markets -- where markets are allowed to go up --- but not allowed to come down, can only end in a disaster. Unfortunately those gaining the most from their manipulations will NOT be those that suffer from the coming collapse.
SO....in summary.....the manipulations are giving you a chance.....we may see some stability in the dollar and maybe even a little "dead cat" bounce in the markets. Use that as an opportunity to move your 401k money into something that doesn't rely on financial stocks.
If/when govt intervention fails we will see a massive and spectacular bank failure (or two or more) and by all rights the GSE fannie mae is probably insolvent right now....it's just not admitting it yet.
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. as always, none of this constitutes investment advice. If you're crazy enough to accept investment advice from a blind, hairless dog on the internet with no dental plan, then expect to look like fubarrio in a couple of years.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Another Inverted Cup and Handle
I'm sorry, I've been very busy lately with work and preparing for what looks like life without fuBarrio, the rabid bald snaggletoothed dog.
It's starting to look VERY likely that betting my (online) life that Hillary would win the demo nom was a pretty stupid move.
If she and Bill don't pull a last second miracle, this blog will just be a bunch of commercial postings for helping some sites I work on rank a little better (hopefully). I'll be posting any and all editorial commentary on a separate site that I've registered -- and life will go on without the blind dog.
.......
Ok...what this post is really about though is that ANOTHER inverted cup and handle setup in the dollar over the past week or so and (predictably) it failed to hold again.
I'm just hammering this post out before i eat during my lunch break, but my hope is that eventually you start to see some of this "order in disorder".
You can see, as the technical analysis Gods predict, that you see a dramatic move to the downside the second that support is broken.
(as an aside in the political prediction markets, Obama's chart formed a big right-side-up cup and handle....and burst to the upside when he beat hillary in WA state (i think it was).
Anyhow. the dollar chart is below....it's a bit choppy to be called a "true" cup and handle...but i still think if you squint real hard you might be able to see it....the support at 75 before breaking down. If you like, refer to my earlier treatise on cups and handles, why they may be predictiive and inverted cups and handles as they relate to the dollar index.
OH....yeah...almost forgot...so what to do? look for exploration and production companies (oil) gold miners (who are in production) and people who make or service people making food. a decent way to ETF into food and avoid company risk is ticker: DBA.
Sorry...lots to say, not much time.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Free Internet Marketing Advice
Well, in actuality, here's some free advice that goes beyond just Internet marketing: you get what you pay for. :)
While I'm never shy about handing out unsolicited advice -- a fun little habit that has scuttled many a job interview prematurely -- I haven't been as active about it here on fubarrio in recent months.
The reason, alas, is that it seems that the original "raison d'etre" of fubarrio, while a bit meandering, had been relegated primarily to:
Lately, I've been watching the markets and the happenings in the states a LOT less, and the bear case in alot of markets has been taken mainstream by reality slapping the bulls in the face.
The reason I'm not following things so close is that
a.) the turn is in hand and the trend is in place....watching the trend unfold (especially in resi real estate) is goin to be like watching a slow motion train wreck....one that will take about 10 years to "play out" IMO. In fact the ramifications will be felt until the last participant in the insanity dies....maybe even afterwards if they can shake any sense into their grandkids before they leave this rock.
b.) i've been really busy with my pet project here in Uruguay -- turning this sleepy cow country into a booming offshore financial centre.
(Ok, well, admittedly, this place isn't really ready for that....in spite of having some outrageously beneficial laws relating to bank secrecy, they also have this little problem of red tape making it an outrageously expensive and SLOW place to do business.)
In spite of that, I march on like a committed soldier to certain stress induced illness and perhaps death in trying to rework the internet marketing at my little company.
Now, I've learned a lot in the last year -- mostly about what a fool I was in regards to Internet marketing. And, if I could go back in time with 20/20 hindsight I'd probably do things a little bit differently. However, in spite of all this, it turns out that I have a lot better grasp on this whole Internet marketing thing than a lot of the people who really need this knowledge. So, I'm constantly being asked questions from friends and associates for how to "improve" what it is they are doing.
This primarily comes from companies in "startup mode" before they've realized that they already known everything :)
Ironically, these guys don't have the time money or inclination to go out and get someone who can truly help them, regardless of how desperately they need it.
So, what I'm beginning is yet ANOTHER blog, to jot down some of my findings, foibles, unsolicited advice, and war stories from the world of internet marketing.
A quick search of the term "internet marketing" will turn up a "brazillion" hits because there is big money (apparently) in selling flailing entrepreneurs internet marketing secrets, tricks, schemes, etc.
I'm not selling anything. This is purely, free internet marketing advice. Worth every penny you paid for it. :) However, I will attempt to make a solid effort to be honest and open and forthcomin with some of what I've found, what I still struggle with, and what I've burned the last year of my life dealing with so that you won't have to (hopefully).
As an aside, this sort of thing may be generically interesting to the less well-off (or younger!) fuBarrio readers who dream of expatriating themselves, but are "stuck" in financial situations where there income is not very portable.
As a Controller/CFO/CTO of startups in silly-cone valley, I had created a decidedly NON MOBILE work profile.
Trading, and later this whole internet marketing thing, were just my response to get out from under the tyranny of the hour-long commute while paying out massive amounts of my "hard earned" income in (housing) debt service, and crazy Cali-taxes to what I felt was a fascist regime.
If my "other" project can help someone get the confidence to take the plunge, or save someone from one of my fubars....all the better.
I will still attempt to articulate some thoughts on uruguay, trading, and the financial world at large through fubarrio, but I'm starting the other project as a place to point people who want to know about the place I spend the other 20 hours a day :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. as an aside about my other blog. two obvious things i'm doing wrong:
1.) never link to your new blog until you have it setup on a unique URL. i own the URL (without the blogspot stuff) but i'm too lazy to set it up right now, and
2.) think thrice before you name a site (or a product or a company) some cutesy "pun". people will constantly be mispelling your name. 'tis much better to come up with something unique never before coined and "own" that name.....what can I say, I'm a sucker for a pun.
While I'm never shy about handing out unsolicited advice -- a fun little habit that has scuttled many a job interview prematurely -- I haven't been as active about it here on fubarrio in recent months.
The reason, alas, is that it seems that the original "raison d'etre" of fubarrio, while a bit meandering, had been relegated primarily to:
- what's it like living in Uruguay as an expat, and
- trading your way into the poor house with faulty pattern recognition brought on by senility and greyed out eyes desperately in need of cataract surgery.
Lately, I've been watching the markets and the happenings in the states a LOT less, and the bear case in alot of markets has been taken mainstream by reality slapping the bulls in the face.
The reason I'm not following things so close is that
a.) the turn is in hand and the trend is in place....watching the trend unfold (especially in resi real estate) is goin to be like watching a slow motion train wreck....one that will take about 10 years to "play out" IMO. In fact the ramifications will be felt until the last participant in the insanity dies....maybe even afterwards if they can shake any sense into their grandkids before they leave this rock.
b.) i've been really busy with my pet project here in Uruguay -- turning this sleepy cow country into a booming offshore financial centre.
(Ok, well, admittedly, this place isn't really ready for that....in spite of having some outrageously beneficial laws relating to bank secrecy, they also have this little problem of red tape making it an outrageously expensive and SLOW place to do business.)
In spite of that, I march on like a committed soldier to certain stress induced illness and perhaps death in trying to rework the internet marketing at my little company.
Now, I've learned a lot in the last year -- mostly about what a fool I was in regards to Internet marketing. And, if I could go back in time with 20/20 hindsight I'd probably do things a little bit differently. However, in spite of all this, it turns out that I have a lot better grasp on this whole Internet marketing thing than a lot of the people who really need this knowledge. So, I'm constantly being asked questions from friends and associates for how to "improve" what it is they are doing.
This primarily comes from companies in "startup mode" before they've realized that they already known everything :)
Ironically, these guys don't have the time money or inclination to go out and get someone who can truly help them, regardless of how desperately they need it.
So, what I'm beginning is yet ANOTHER blog, to jot down some of my findings, foibles, unsolicited advice, and war stories from the world of internet marketing.
A quick search of the term "internet marketing" will turn up a "brazillion" hits because there is big money (apparently) in selling flailing entrepreneurs internet marketing secrets, tricks, schemes, etc.
I'm not selling anything. This is purely, free internet marketing advice. Worth every penny you paid for it. :) However, I will attempt to make a solid effort to be honest and open and forthcomin with some of what I've found, what I still struggle with, and what I've burned the last year of my life dealing with so that you won't have to (hopefully).
As an aside, this sort of thing may be generically interesting to the less well-off (or younger!) fuBarrio readers who dream of expatriating themselves, but are "stuck" in financial situations where there income is not very portable.
As a Controller/CFO/CTO of startups in silly-cone valley, I had created a decidedly NON MOBILE work profile.
Trading, and later this whole internet marketing thing, were just my response to get out from under the tyranny of the hour-long commute while paying out massive amounts of my "hard earned" income in (housing) debt service, and crazy Cali-taxes to what I felt was a fascist regime.
If my "other" project can help someone get the confidence to take the plunge, or save someone from one of my fubars....all the better.
I will still attempt to articulate some thoughts on uruguay, trading, and the financial world at large through fubarrio, but I'm starting the other project as a place to point people who want to know about the place I spend the other 20 hours a day :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. as an aside about my other blog. two obvious things i'm doing wrong:
1.) never link to your new blog until you have it setup on a unique URL. i own the URL (without the blogspot stuff) but i'm too lazy to set it up right now, and
2.) think thrice before you name a site (or a product or a company) some cutesy "pun". people will constantly be mispelling your name. 'tis much better to come up with something unique never before coined and "own" that name.....what can I say, I'm a sucker for a pun.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Bad Year to Stop Sniffing Glue....
My arrogance *may* have finally caught up with me....
I made a drunken proclamation earlier last year that Hilary *would* be the Democratic nominee. As if that wasn't stupid enough, I staked my "life" to it, saying that I would give up blogging under the fuBarrio psuedonym if it didn't come to pass.
Ironically, I also predicted that John McCain would be the Rep Nominee to a different friend.
How the worm has turned. McCain came out of nowhere to take control and Hilary is reeling.
Now, in my defense I wasn't following the race as an expat and had never heard Obama speak. I was betting my bet on the Clintons being coniving and a little bit crazy perhaps.
After Hilary *won* New Hampshire (her first comeback so far) I heard Barack speak for the first time....in a concession speech.
I had a feeling that my dog liver was cooked at that point. He *sounded presidential* to me....even in defeat.
A mix of MLK and a Kennedy almost.
Now, that said, my slim hopes of keeping this website alive as anything other than an empty shell of commercialism and a dead link farm lie in the sinister minds of the Clinton camp. Surely, they can drag out some photoshopped images of Obama sharing a cigar with BinLaden in a Pakastani strip club or something (?)
I know it's just talk -- and there isn't much a politico can do but make more trouble -- but the irony is this barack guy is the best chance for the US keeping up its spirits when things suck over the next few years.
I truly do hope he wins the demo ticket, for the sake of the US.
For the sake of fubarrio, i hope those scheming clintons have kept one hail mary up their sleeve for the final push.
ciao,
fuBarrio
I made a drunken proclamation earlier last year that Hilary *would* be the Democratic nominee. As if that wasn't stupid enough, I staked my "life" to it, saying that I would give up blogging under the fuBarrio psuedonym if it didn't come to pass.
Ironically, I also predicted that John McCain would be the Rep Nominee to a different friend.
How the worm has turned. McCain came out of nowhere to take control and Hilary is reeling.
Now, in my defense I wasn't following the race as an expat and had never heard Obama speak. I was betting my bet on the Clintons being coniving and a little bit crazy perhaps.
After Hilary *won* New Hampshire (her first comeback so far) I heard Barack speak for the first time....in a concession speech.
I had a feeling that my dog liver was cooked at that point. He *sounded presidential* to me....even in defeat.
A mix of MLK and a Kennedy almost.
Now, that said, my slim hopes of keeping this website alive as anything other than an empty shell of commercialism and a dead link farm lie in the sinister minds of the Clinton camp. Surely, they can drag out some photoshopped images of Obama sharing a cigar with BinLaden in a Pakastani strip club or something (?)
I know it's just talk -- and there isn't much a politico can do but make more trouble -- but the irony is this barack guy is the best chance for the US keeping up its spirits when things suck over the next few years.
I truly do hope he wins the demo ticket, for the sake of the US.
For the sake of fubarrio, i hope those scheming clintons have kept one hail mary up their sleeve for the final push.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Ocular Penetration Restriction Act
I know CSPAN can be a little boring.
But, this propose legislation is so important I had to take the time to figure out that whole video embed thing from YouTube.
If I could take the time to wrap my nontechnical pea brain around that...you can take the time to check out this video....The most useful piece of legislation to come down the pipe in recent memory
But, this propose legislation is so important I had to take the time to figure out that whole video embed thing from YouTube.
If I could take the time to wrap my nontechnical pea brain around that...you can take the time to check out this video....The most useful piece of legislation to come down the pipe in recent memory
Sunday, February 03, 2008
SuperBowl, Sportsbetting, Odds, and the Sportsbooks
Well, this is it today....this is the "black Sunday" for the US based sportsbooks. The day when they can potentially rake in more than any other day of the year and a big sendoff to the football season, which is still the most lucrative time of the year and sport for the US based books.
I'd wager it's also a big day for worldwide sportsbooks, notwithstanding their prediliction for better on the "other" football (futbol).
Years ago, when I was more in tune with the happenings at the offshore sportsbooks, I noticed a strange phenomenon (or thought I did at least). That I was going to mention in light of the setup for this superbowl.
Before I get into that however, I need to give you some background (for the uninitiated) on how a sports book operates.
Sports books are in the business of matching betters with each other and acting as a "broker" of sorts. The return for his work in matching up bettors (or punters as the brits say) he is given the "juice" a commision of sorts, also known as the "vig" or "vigorish". I have no idea where they got the term vigorish. The vig typically amounts to 5% of the total wager and in theory is paid by the winner. But if you analyse the situation it's technically paid by both sides with a reduced expectation of return.
Well, this seems pretty easy for the sports bettor, right? All he has to do is pick the winner, and give 5% back to the bookie for taking the transaction.
Not so fast. The reason that so many people get into trouble with the bookies and end up getting kneecaps broken (in the movies at least) is that the bookie isn't a total knucklehead. He realizes that his optimum total return on dollars wagered over the long haul with minimum risk is maximized if he can find people for BOTH sides of the wager.
But how does he get both sides of a wager filled when there are some obvious favorites out there?
There are some "tricks" they use to accomplish this. Two typical ones are to pay a moneyline, or "lay odds" and the other is to create a "line". A specialist either evens the possibility of a win by adding points to a teams outcome -- or they attempt to even the betting by paying out larger dollars for "underdogs" -- or outcomes that are judged as less likely.
Laying odds, I'm not as familiar with, but you see it at where matches are a binary result. Examples of this are the craps table, prize fights, cock fights, etc.
You hear, "3 will get you 5", or some combination of risk vs. payout.
The bookie will attempt to tailor the odds so he matches the betting and gets the "vig" or "juice" from either outcome resulting in a payout that is less than what he took in.
Horse racing is similar, however the handicapping method of payout is a sophisticated "on the fly" calculation of payout vs. wagered. I have read somewhere that the "juice" at a racetrack can be as high as 18%. While this sounds very high, it is understood that games that are more expensive to organize and present and games that take longer to unfold have a higher payout ratio to the house.
That is on of the reasons, no pass in craps pays the house about 1%, and a game of keno or bingo can run 40%. Craps is very fast and bingo is very slow
Point Spread
The point spread is the other method the bookies use to even out their betting. The "line" or point spread is determined by a few different wizards that work in the larger sportsbooks....and most (if not all) the smaller books follow suit with that published line. These wizards are incredibly talented at finding the line before the bettin begins in a given week, and absent a big middle of the week injury (previously unknown to the bookies) these lines are relatively stable.
Moving the line by the bookie is problematic (although necessary sometimes) because he runs the risk (espcially if the line moves enough) or having a bettor place two bets at different times with different point spreads and winning them both. This happens when the outcome falls between the two point spread quotes and is called "getting middled" by the bookies.
(I call "getting middled" when you end up with seat "B" between two obnoxious fellow travelers on a cross country flight...an equally uncomfortable feeling.)
The online casinos have a application that feeds them the vegas lines when they are published and any changes to the moneyline.
You will hear this quoted something like, "The Seahawks are favored by 6 1/2 points". The quotes for lines tend to hand around the numbers represented multiples of 7 or 3 points (or some combo) which represents touchdowns and field goals of course.
The point spread however almost always involves a half point. Why is this?
Well, the only thing worse for the bookie than getting middled or being stupid and going into a big game with very lopsided betting -- the good bookies have arrangements to "lay off" big betting to bigger books just like insurance companies and re-insurance do -- is a "push.
A "push" is when the book declares a favorite by some number of points and that ends up being the difference in the game.
A "push" by rule means that all wagers are returned to the players and there is no VIG or JUICE to collect for the bookie. Basically he did a bunch of work for nothing. Not good.
For this reason you *rarely* see the spread an even number.
In a VERY rare case, the Rams and the Titans were in a superbowl (perhaps in the year 2000) and the initial line came out at Rams -7 meaning that the Rams were projected to win by one touchdown.
No matter how hard the book tried to move the line to either 6 1/2 or 7 1/2 they couldn't. It created a massive inbalance of betting on one side or the other.
It turns out that game...through a SERIES of spectacular plays, close calls, a photo finish, etc, the final outcome was Rams -7...they won by exactly one touchdown as predicted. amazing. The books made NOTHING on the superbowl game and the vegas casinos had to be happy with the slop over betting and extra traffic the superbowl brought in.
Do the bookies always get the line exactly right? Well, no...however, at times it is *amazing* how accurate the published point spread is....The point that I need to emphasize here is that THEY AREN'T TRYING TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME.
They are, technically, trying to predict what point spread will give them exactly even betting on both sides.
That is a fine, but very important distinction -- which brings me to thing i "noticed" some years ago -- although i have only anecdotal evidence to back me up.
It seemed that teams from large population centers would receive a larger porportion of betting...and teams from large population centers would receive a larger percentage of "homer" betting...meaning you bet on your favorite (home) team to win whether you really believe they will beat the spread or not....because you want to root for them presumably.
Cities with large populations that were really into gambling -- especially big cities from the northeast seemed to have enough "homers" betting to actually move the spread beyond what regular betting should be.
So, a game with the NY Giants and AZ Cardinals would (sometimes) seem to have an inordinate number of bettors taking the NY Giant, plus or minus whatever the line happened to be.
The result was that someone could simply bet against the giants with the line and come out ahead.
Of course, this was years ago, and I never took the time to do a deeper analysis -- and if there was an anomoly, i'm sure it was gobbled up by the big swingers who try to make a living off of sports betting.....The lines are so accurate, and the vig is high enough that there is only a small small small number of people in the world who can make a living sports betting...although many try.
So, how does that effect the superbowl line?
I would guess that the NE Patriots, bein that they are unbeaten and receiving an incredible amount of press -- their QB was on 60 minutes -- the number of bandwagon jumpers have more than likely swamped the numbers of even the "homers" from NY.
This is an unusual game from that persepctive. It's not like a regular season NY Giants, AZ Cardinals game.
So Superbowl predictions, I have none -- though underdog + points can sometimes be more fun to watch for me. I'm a sucker for an underdog.
After Superbowl predictions, I have one -- bet against the return of a "spring bounce" in US residential Real Estate usually marked as beginning the day after the SuperBowl.
Not withstanding the efforts of the Treasury, the Whitehouse and the Fed, I'm taking Recession (minus the points).
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
I'd wager it's also a big day for worldwide sportsbooks, notwithstanding their prediliction for better on the "other" football (futbol).
Years ago, when I was more in tune with the happenings at the offshore sportsbooks, I noticed a strange phenomenon (or thought I did at least). That I was going to mention in light of the setup for this superbowl.
Before I get into that however, I need to give you some background (for the uninitiated) on how a sports book operates.
Sports books are in the business of matching betters with each other and acting as a "broker" of sorts. The return for his work in matching up bettors (or punters as the brits say) he is given the "juice" a commision of sorts, also known as the "vig" or "vigorish". I have no idea where they got the term vigorish. The vig typically amounts to 5% of the total wager and in theory is paid by the winner. But if you analyse the situation it's technically paid by both sides with a reduced expectation of return.
Well, this seems pretty easy for the sports bettor, right? All he has to do is pick the winner, and give 5% back to the bookie for taking the transaction.
Not so fast. The reason that so many people get into trouble with the bookies and end up getting kneecaps broken (in the movies at least) is that the bookie isn't a total knucklehead. He realizes that his optimum total return on dollars wagered over the long haul with minimum risk is maximized if he can find people for BOTH sides of the wager.
But how does he get both sides of a wager filled when there are some obvious favorites out there?
There are some "tricks" they use to accomplish this. Two typical ones are to pay a moneyline, or "lay odds" and the other is to create a "line". A specialist either evens the possibility of a win by adding points to a teams outcome -- or they attempt to even the betting by paying out larger dollars for "underdogs" -- or outcomes that are judged as less likely.
Laying odds, I'm not as familiar with, but you see it at where matches are a binary result. Examples of this are the craps table, prize fights, cock fights, etc.
You hear, "3 will get you 5", or some combination of risk vs. payout.
The bookie will attempt to tailor the odds so he matches the betting and gets the "vig" or "juice" from either outcome resulting in a payout that is less than what he took in.
Horse racing is similar, however the handicapping method of payout is a sophisticated "on the fly" calculation of payout vs. wagered. I have read somewhere that the "juice" at a racetrack can be as high as 18%. While this sounds very high, it is understood that games that are more expensive to organize and present and games that take longer to unfold have a higher payout ratio to the house.
That is on of the reasons, no pass in craps pays the house about 1%, and a game of keno or bingo can run 40%. Craps is very fast and bingo is very slow
Point Spread
The point spread is the other method the bookies use to even out their betting. The "line" or point spread is determined by a few different wizards that work in the larger sportsbooks....and most (if not all) the smaller books follow suit with that published line. These wizards are incredibly talented at finding the line before the bettin begins in a given week, and absent a big middle of the week injury (previously unknown to the bookies) these lines are relatively stable.
Moving the line by the bookie is problematic (although necessary sometimes) because he runs the risk (espcially if the line moves enough) or having a bettor place two bets at different times with different point spreads and winning them both. This happens when the outcome falls between the two point spread quotes and is called "getting middled" by the bookies.
(I call "getting middled" when you end up with seat "B" between two obnoxious fellow travelers on a cross country flight...an equally uncomfortable feeling.)
The online casinos have a application that feeds them the vegas lines when they are published and any changes to the moneyline.
You will hear this quoted something like, "The Seahawks are favored by 6 1/2 points". The quotes for lines tend to hand around the numbers represented multiples of 7 or 3 points (or some combo) which represents touchdowns and field goals of course.
The point spread however almost always involves a half point. Why is this?
Well, the only thing worse for the bookie than getting middled or being stupid and going into a big game with very lopsided betting -- the good bookies have arrangements to "lay off" big betting to bigger books just like insurance companies and re-insurance do -- is a "push.
A "push" is when the book declares a favorite by some number of points and that ends up being the difference in the game.
A "push" by rule means that all wagers are returned to the players and there is no VIG or JUICE to collect for the bookie. Basically he did a bunch of work for nothing. Not good.
For this reason you *rarely* see the spread an even number.
In a VERY rare case, the Rams and the Titans were in a superbowl (perhaps in the year 2000) and the initial line came out at Rams -7 meaning that the Rams were projected to win by one touchdown.
No matter how hard the book tried to move the line to either 6 1/2 or 7 1/2 they couldn't. It created a massive inbalance of betting on one side or the other.
It turns out that game...through a SERIES of spectacular plays, close calls, a photo finish, etc, the final outcome was Rams -7...they won by exactly one touchdown as predicted. amazing. The books made NOTHING on the superbowl game and the vegas casinos had to be happy with the slop over betting and extra traffic the superbowl brought in.
Do the bookies always get the line exactly right? Well, no...however, at times it is *amazing* how accurate the published point spread is....The point that I need to emphasize here is that THEY AREN'T TRYING TO PREDICT THE OUTCOME.
They are, technically, trying to predict what point spread will give them exactly even betting on both sides.
That is a fine, but very important distinction -- which brings me to thing i "noticed" some years ago -- although i have only anecdotal evidence to back me up.
It seemed that teams from large population centers would receive a larger porportion of betting...and teams from large population centers would receive a larger percentage of "homer" betting...meaning you bet on your favorite (home) team to win whether you really believe they will beat the spread or not....because you want to root for them presumably.
Cities with large populations that were really into gambling -- especially big cities from the northeast seemed to have enough "homers" betting to actually move the spread beyond what regular betting should be.
So, a game with the NY Giants and AZ Cardinals would (sometimes) seem to have an inordinate number of bettors taking the NY Giant, plus or minus whatever the line happened to be.
The result was that someone could simply bet against the giants with the line and come out ahead.
Of course, this was years ago, and I never took the time to do a deeper analysis -- and if there was an anomoly, i'm sure it was gobbled up by the big swingers who try to make a living off of sports betting.....The lines are so accurate, and the vig is high enough that there is only a small small small number of people in the world who can make a living sports betting...although many try.
So, how does that effect the superbowl line?
I would guess that the NE Patriots, bein that they are unbeaten and receiving an incredible amount of press -- their QB was on 60 minutes -- the number of bandwagon jumpers have more than likely swamped the numbers of even the "homers" from NY.
This is an unusual game from that persepctive. It's not like a regular season NY Giants, AZ Cardinals game.
So Superbowl predictions, I have none -- though underdog + points can sometimes be more fun to watch for me. I'm a sucker for an underdog.
After Superbowl predictions, I have one -- bet against the return of a "spring bounce" in US residential Real Estate usually marked as beginning the day after the SuperBowl.
Not withstanding the efforts of the Treasury, the Whitehouse and the Fed, I'm taking Recession (minus the points).
ciao for now,
fuBarrio
Friday, February 01, 2008
Yahoo! - It's all Good!
Some credible sources were telling me after the gap down (some even before it) before Bernanke's panicked .75 basis points cut that the low had been put in on the stock indices for the quarter.
While I didn't "believe it", I was quick to lighten up on my shorts on the gap down and my short positions now are a way to cover my longs in case the SHTF. (These technicians think that we are in for a "paws" that refreshes on the bear market....then later in the year, another leg down.)
Anyhow, after seeing google disapoint I was starting to think that we could catch another wave down....then this:
MSFT agrees to buy Yahoo at a ****61% premium**** over their trading price.
Who in the H.E double toothpicks pays a 61% premium for a declining asset.
Finally, somebody overpays, stupidly, for an asset and i'm not an owner of the acquirer. Bout time I missed a bullet.
I'm quickly left to wonder what this means for the rapidly shrinking business of delivering search results.
Currently the three players are Google, Yahoo, and MSN. If #2,3 merge, then it's really a two horse race and a bunch of also rans. I'm curious whether the algoritms will merge...whether there will be a difference in the two sites' search results as their is now.
Time will tell....It'll be interesting to see what this does to the indices today given what a big weighting msft has.
ciao,
fB
While I didn't "believe it", I was quick to lighten up on my shorts on the gap down and my short positions now are a way to cover my longs in case the SHTF. (These technicians think that we are in for a "paws" that refreshes on the bear market....then later in the year, another leg down.)
Anyhow, after seeing google disapoint I was starting to think that we could catch another wave down....then this:
MSFT agrees to buy Yahoo at a ****61% premium**** over their trading price.
Who in the H.E double toothpicks pays a 61% premium for a declining asset.
Finally, somebody overpays, stupidly, for an asset and i'm not an owner of the acquirer. Bout time I missed a bullet.
I'm quickly left to wonder what this means for the rapidly shrinking business of delivering search results.
Currently the three players are Google, Yahoo, and MSN. If #2,3 merge, then it's really a two horse race and a bunch of also rans. I'm curious whether the algoritms will merge...whether there will be a difference in the two sites' search results as their is now.
Time will tell....It'll be interesting to see what this does to the indices today given what a big weighting msft has.
ciao,
fB
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fed Slashes Rate by 75 Basis Points
Fed Slashed Rates by 75 Basis Points in a "suprise" move before the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday. The Fed said it was cutting the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, to 3.5 percent, down by three-fourths of a percentage point from 4.25 percent
Wow....to see how suprised I was see my last post.
I was working this morning, but luckily my work day in uruguay starts three hours before the market opens.
During a break in the action I took a lunch break and traded (small) on my convictions and made (a little) coin.
I went long on SSO (canadian silver mining stock) at 30 and change and after it went up a couple of points dumped it. of course, it has continued to go up since i dumped it but i didn't have time to watch it today (and didn't even know at the time that BB had dropped the rate - or announced a press conference - or however he telegraphed this).
I dropped my sds (s&p double short) which bets the s&p will fall at the gap down on the open.
BUT, like i said in my previous posting i'm looking for a chance to reenter that trade - asap. This is just one of those markets I don't like being "not short" :)
Ok...lunch break is almost over and it's time to get back to my day job. The traders have to be loving this volatility....especially when it's so friggin' predictable!
ciao,
fuBarrio
The Federal Reserve, confronted with a global stock sell-off fanned by increased fears of a recession, cut a key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Tuesday. The Fed said it was cutting the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, to 3.5 percent, down by three-fourths of a percentage point from 4.25 percent
Wow....to see how suprised I was see my last post.
I was working this morning, but luckily my work day in uruguay starts three hours before the market opens.
During a break in the action I took a lunch break and traded (small) on my convictions and made (a little) coin.
I went long on SSO (canadian silver mining stock) at 30 and change and after it went up a couple of points dumped it. of course, it has continued to go up since i dumped it but i didn't have time to watch it today (and didn't even know at the time that BB had dropped the rate - or announced a press conference - or however he telegraphed this).
I dropped my sds (s&p double short) which bets the s&p will fall at the gap down on the open.
BUT, like i said in my previous posting i'm looking for a chance to reenter that trade - asap. This is just one of those markets I don't like being "not short" :)
Ok...lunch break is almost over and it's time to get back to my day job. The traders have to be loving this volatility....especially when it's so friggin' predictable!
ciao,
fuBarrio
I love the smell of a bailout in the morning....
....it smells like......inflation!
for anyone who wasn't watching the markets this last week and especially over the 3 day holiday in the US....
aoooga a ooooo ga....DIVE! DIVE!
utter pandamonium it seems.
the reality is that given the magnitude of the runup, to be down 20% in hong kong, shanghai, or mubai is really not that big of a deal.
however, the magnitude of the decline in the EU got my attention.
and, with the "bailout" proposal being bantied about by bernanke/bush/paulson/congress/2008 candidates getting very little play from the markets i suspect that the heavy guns will come out on tuesday a.m. in the US markets.
what does that mean?
one of two things:
1.) "plunge protection team" interference in the futures market and maybe the market for securities themselves. if you don't know what the plunge protection team is google it or the working group on markets.....you don't need a tinfoil hat anymore to suspect that the markets are manipulated by government forces. everyone pretty much admits it these days.
2,) the market will be allowed to 'gap down' and run for an hour or two and then bernanke will announce a "suprise" early cut to the interest rates, the market will spike up and create a massive short squeeze rally.
...sigh....the kind of volatility that's promised tomorrow almost makes me want to buckle up and jump in for a frenetic day of trading.
however tempting the promise of making and/or losing my annual salary on a days worth of bets is not enough to get me back in the saddle tomorrow. i have a "day job" that demands my attention -- so i'll have to stay content to sit in my longer term holds and let the currents push me where they may.
ciao,
fuBarrio
for anyone who wasn't watching the markets this last week and especially over the 3 day holiday in the US....
aoooga a ooooo ga....DIVE! DIVE!
utter pandamonium it seems.
the reality is that given the magnitude of the runup, to be down 20% in hong kong, shanghai, or mubai is really not that big of a deal.
however, the magnitude of the decline in the EU got my attention.
and, with the "bailout" proposal being bantied about by bernanke/bush/paulson/congress/2008 candidates getting very little play from the markets i suspect that the heavy guns will come out on tuesday a.m. in the US markets.
what does that mean?
one of two things:
1.) "plunge protection team" interference in the futures market and maybe the market for securities themselves. if you don't know what the plunge protection team is google it or the working group on markets.....you don't need a tinfoil hat anymore to suspect that the markets are manipulated by government forces. everyone pretty much admits it these days.
2,) the market will be allowed to 'gap down' and run for an hour or two and then bernanke will announce a "suprise" early cut to the interest rates, the market will spike up and create a massive short squeeze rally.
...sigh....the kind of volatility that's promised tomorrow almost makes me want to buckle up and jump in for a frenetic day of trading.
however tempting the promise of making and/or losing my annual salary on a days worth of bets is not enough to get me back in the saddle tomorrow. i have a "day job" that demands my attention -- so i'll have to stay content to sit in my longer term holds and let the currents push me where they may.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Hillary (O)bomb(a)s in Iowa
Well,
My fat mouth *may* have finally caught up with me. Obama cleaned Hillary's clock in Iowa -- jeez even that populist farce Edwards beat her out.
Well, rather that get all hopeful that Americans have wised up to the ways of the Clintons, or put much stock in a few thousand farmers, I'm going to wait until a few more states have finished their primaries.
If you'll remember, fuBarrio made 'drunken proclamation' (too lazy to find the post) where I bet me "life" Hillary would find a way to subvert the Democratic process and get herself nominated.....In a more sober moment later, I decided that I would stop bloggin under the fuBarrio nameplate forever if Edwards or Obama were able to nudge her out.
...who knows....it's definately looking more likely this week than last. But I don't want to get too excited yet....
Now, what'll really be interesting to watch in NH (other than the dems) will be Ron Paul's support and whether or not the mainstream media acknowledges it or not.
ciao,
fuBarrio
My fat mouth *may* have finally caught up with me. Obama cleaned Hillary's clock in Iowa -- jeez even that populist farce Edwards beat her out.
Well, rather that get all hopeful that Americans have wised up to the ways of the Clintons, or put much stock in a few thousand farmers, I'm going to wait until a few more states have finished their primaries.
If you'll remember, fuBarrio made 'drunken proclamation' (too lazy to find the post) where I bet me "life" Hillary would find a way to subvert the Democratic process and get herself nominated.....In a more sober moment later, I decided that I would stop bloggin under the fuBarrio nameplate forever if Edwards or Obama were able to nudge her out.
...who knows....it's definately looking more likely this week than last. But I don't want to get too excited yet....
Now, what'll really be interesting to watch in NH (other than the dems) will be Ron Paul's support and whether or not the mainstream media acknowledges it or not.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, December 31, 2007
2007 - A Fubar'ed Financial Year in Review
Well, I spent large portions of 2006 and 2007 telling you what I thought would happen in financial markets this year.
I'm going to attempt to review some of those calls here and critique what we got right and what we screwed up royally.
1.) US residential housing would fall HARD
check
2.) Bank failures would be more prevalent
check -- however, forces are fighting hard to liquidate markets to keep insolvent lenders alive
3.) The reliquification would create a drop in the value of the US dollar
check
4.) Commodities would benefit from the dollar crunch, Gold out of credit tightness and fear
check
5,) Uranium prices would dip in summer and then reignite in fall
check
6,) Uranium juniors would be a good bet in fall through spring 2008
NOT...in fact junior miners across the board have been hit hard with some (very few) notable exceptions.
7.) financials were ripe for a fall from grace
check. in fact, we've already seen quite a few BIG names taking on serious water. expect more of this as the depth of the fraud and excesses becomes better known in 2008.
8.) The broader market was ripe for a fall at Dow 13,000
NOT. I reiterated my call again at 14,000 and it seems to be under significant pressure, but so far Sovereign wealth fund investments in financials (classic knife catchers, imo) and a falling dollar has meant that dollar holders are looking for something to buy. This has kept the market bouncing between 13 and 14k.
The broader market has gone basically nowhere since summer.
What my "call" for 2008?
Not nearly as exciting or risky as my calls for 2007. more of the same.
As 2007 turned out I had very little time for trading and just stuck (mostly) with my macro trends (dollar down, stuff up). Trend following is the most predictably profitable trade, and calling the turn (down) in the broader markets is where i lost the most money in 2007.
Calling a "turn" in a market is not for the faint of heart or weak of pocketbook. If I'd had more time for trading I would have had more time for research and been leaning pretty heavily (short) on subprime lenders. But, I didn't, and probably won't in 2008 either. So, it will be an exercise in trying "not to lose" rather than winning.
"Trying not to lose" is a little like the NFL's "prevent defense" when I try it. Not very successful. It is something where I have a VERY spotty record, so it will be interesting to see if I'm able to figure things out without getting washed out.
Good luck to all, and a prosperous new year.
ciao,
fuBarrio
I'm going to attempt to review some of those calls here and critique what we got right and what we screwed up royally.
1.) US residential housing would fall HARD
check
2.) Bank failures would be more prevalent
check -- however, forces are fighting hard to liquidate markets to keep insolvent lenders alive
3.) The reliquification would create a drop in the value of the US dollar
check
4.) Commodities would benefit from the dollar crunch, Gold out of credit tightness and fear
check
5,) Uranium prices would dip in summer and then reignite in fall
check
6,) Uranium juniors would be a good bet in fall through spring 2008
NOT...in fact junior miners across the board have been hit hard with some (very few) notable exceptions.
7.) financials were ripe for a fall from grace
check. in fact, we've already seen quite a few BIG names taking on serious water. expect more of this as the depth of the fraud and excesses becomes better known in 2008.
8.) The broader market was ripe for a fall at Dow 13,000
NOT. I reiterated my call again at 14,000 and it seems to be under significant pressure, but so far Sovereign wealth fund investments in financials (classic knife catchers, imo) and a falling dollar has meant that dollar holders are looking for something to buy. This has kept the market bouncing between 13 and 14k.
The broader market has gone basically nowhere since summer.
What my "call" for 2008?
Not nearly as exciting or risky as my calls for 2007. more of the same.
As 2007 turned out I had very little time for trading and just stuck (mostly) with my macro trends (dollar down, stuff up). Trend following is the most predictably profitable trade, and calling the turn (down) in the broader markets is where i lost the most money in 2007.
Calling a "turn" in a market is not for the faint of heart or weak of pocketbook. If I'd had more time for trading I would have had more time for research and been leaning pretty heavily (short) on subprime lenders. But, I didn't, and probably won't in 2008 either. So, it will be an exercise in trying "not to lose" rather than winning.
"Trying not to lose" is a little like the NFL's "prevent defense" when I try it. Not very successful. It is something where I have a VERY spotty record, so it will be interesting to see if I'm able to figure things out without getting washed out.
Good luck to all, and a prosperous new year.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, December 17, 2007
Blogs About Uruguay
Tired of reading the same lame crap in the my Blog About Uruguay?
Here is a semi-complete list of Blogs about Uruguay from other points of view:
A Cup of Mate a Day...: http://acupofmate.blogspot.com/
A Girl And Guy In Uruguay: http://adamleandra.blogspot.com/
A Maverick's Odyssey: http://www.amavericko.com/
A Year In Uruguay: http://www.chuckstull.blogspot.com/
Alyssa In Uruguay: http://alyssainuruguay.blogspot.com/
Amargo y Dulce: http://bittersweetinuruguay.blogspot.com/
Arrancopelito: http://arrancopelito.blogspot.com/
Beneath the Southern Cross...A Family's Adventures in Uruguay: http://uruguayadventures.blogspot.com/
Christopher's Tales: http://christopherstales.blogspot.com/
Coastal Uruguay: http://coastaluruguay.com/
Dustin Goes To Uruguay: http://dustinsaldarriaga.blogspot.com/
El Diablo Tranquilo Comes Together: http://www.eldiablotranquilo.com/blog/
Elli's Story: http://ellijelli.blogspot.com/
From Uruguay: http://www.from-uruguay.com/
Las Alas del Alba: http://thewingsofthedawn.blogspot.com/
Latitude -30º -35ºS MVD - UY: http://accrux.blogspot.com/
Laurin In Uruguay: http://laurinariail.com/
Learning Uruguay: http://urufish.wordpress.com/
Lessons @ UY: http://a-philosophical.blogspot.com/
Living In Montevideo: http://livinginmontevideo.blogspot.com/
Odeliza: http://www.odeliza.com/
Pde-uy.com/wordpress/: http://kzlv.com/wordpress/
Place No Limits: http://placenolimits.blogspot.com/
The Beautiful Changes: http://www.fionamarie-site.blogspot.com/
The Latin Americanist: http://ourlatinamerica.blogspot.com/
The Seven C's: http://cleanorganizedandontime.blogspot.com/
This Is Uruguay: http://guay.wordpress.com/
Uruguay Adventure: http://adventureathand.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Blog: http://blog.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay Dreaming: http://uruguaydreaming.com/
Uruguay Guy: http://uruguayguy.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Living: http://www.uruguayliving.com/
Uruguay News Blog: http://news.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay News and Views: http://uruguaynews.blogspot.com/
Uruguay's Wildlife & Natural Sanctuaries: http://uruguay1.blogspot.com/
Viviendo en Uruguay: http://tafw.blogspot.com/
Waiting on the Master: http://worldstoosmall.blogspot.com/
Zest for Life: http://jules-zestforlife.blogspot.com/
and, just added, Teckno Yanqui http://tekno-yanqui.blogspot.com
List compiled by Thorn and folks at sociedadsouthron, uruguay forums
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
Here is a semi-complete list of Blogs about Uruguay from other points of view:
A Cup of Mate a Day...: http://acupofmate.blogspot.com/
A Girl And Guy In Uruguay: http://adamleandra.blogspot.com/
A Maverick's Odyssey: http://www.amavericko.com/
A Year In Uruguay: http://www.chuckstull.blogspot.com/
Alyssa In Uruguay: http://alyssainuruguay.blogspot.com/
Amargo y Dulce: http://bittersweetinuruguay.blogspot.com/
Arrancopelito: http://arrancopelito.blogspot.com/
Beneath the Southern Cross...A Family's Adventures in Uruguay: http://uruguayadventures.blogspot.com/
Christopher's Tales: http://christopherstales.blogspot.com/
Coastal Uruguay: http://coastaluruguay.com/
Dustin Goes To Uruguay: http://dustinsaldarriaga.blogspot.com/
El Diablo Tranquilo Comes Together: http://www.eldiablotranquilo.com/blog/
Elli's Story: http://ellijelli.blogspot.com/
From Uruguay: http://www.from-uruguay.com/
Las Alas del Alba: http://thewingsofthedawn.blogspot.com/
Latitude -30º -35ºS MVD - UY: http://accrux.blogspot.com/
Laurin In Uruguay: http://laurinariail.com/
Learning Uruguay: http://urufish.wordpress.com/
Lessons @ UY: http://a-philosophical.blogspot.com/
Living In Montevideo: http://livinginmontevideo.blogspot.com/
Odeliza: http://www.odeliza.com/
Pde-uy.com/wordpress/: http://kzlv.com/wordpress/
Place No Limits: http://placenolimits.blogspot.com/
The Beautiful Changes: http://www.fionamarie-site.blogspot.com/
The Latin Americanist: http://ourlatinamerica.blogspot.com/
The Seven C's: http://cleanorganizedandontime.blogspot.com/
This Is Uruguay: http://guay.wordpress.com/
Uruguay Adventure: http://adventureathand.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Blog: http://blog.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay Dreaming: http://uruguaydreaming.com/
Uruguay Guy: http://uruguayguy.blogspot.com/
Uruguay Living: http://www.uruguayliving.com/
Uruguay News Blog: http://news.totaluruguay.com/
Uruguay News and Views: http://uruguaynews.blogspot.com/
Uruguay's Wildlife & Natural Sanctuaries: http://uruguay1.blogspot.com/
Viviendo en Uruguay: http://tafw.blogspot.com/
Waiting on the Master: http://worldstoosmall.blogspot.com/
Zest for Life: http://jules-zestforlife.blogspot.com/
and, just added, Teckno Yanqui http://tekno-yanqui.blogspot.com
List compiled by Thorn and folks at sociedadsouthron, uruguay forums
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
Ron Paul - $6 Million Dollar Man
As you may have surmised, I'm a big Ron Paul fan.
It looks like his Boston Tea Party money bomb is probably going to raise around 6MM today. Of course, things are still too good in the US for someone like Paul to win....It's interesting to see a stat that something like 61% of repubnicans polled said they would *never* vote for Paul.
Good thing they have locked down the primaries to only those that have registered for a given party. Otherwise we might actually change the disasterous course the US is on....
Just another reason why 61% of fuBarrios will *never* vote for a repugnican...or demorat...Be interesting to see how much cash Paul burns through trying to reach unreachable idiots in those early states.....what a collosal boondoggle for the media outlets in iowa and NH ....
ciao,
fuBarrio
It looks like his Boston Tea Party money bomb is probably going to raise around 6MM today. Of course, things are still too good in the US for someone like Paul to win....It's interesting to see a stat that something like 61% of repubnicans polled said they would *never* vote for Paul.
Good thing they have locked down the primaries to only those that have registered for a given party. Otherwise we might actually change the disasterous course the US is on....
Just another reason why 61% of fuBarrios will *never* vote for a repugnican...or demorat...Be interesting to see how much cash Paul burns through trying to reach unreachable idiots in those early states.....what a collosal boondoggle for the media outlets in iowa and NH ....
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Dazed and Confused
It's not just the seasons that are reversed here....it's the academic schedule.
I can almost hear alice cooper playing in the background. Not sure if kids still participate in the end-of-year book burning ritual in the states......but this isn't the states.
Granted, I don't talk to many kids here....and I certainly wouldn't count anyone under 20 as a close acquaintance, but from a distance, the kids in Montevideo always remind me a little of my cousins who went to high school in the late 70's and early 80's in california.
It's not just the mullets or retro-fashion revival, a little bit of it seems to be the laid back attitude....late night partying....occasionally inappropriate "adult-like" behaviour, and the general laissez-faire attitude among the adults with regard to supervision of their kids.....especially during summer break.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Parque Rodo Beach
We took an interesting walk through parque rodo this morning. There was an amazing amount of activity from the top of the park, all the way down to the beach.
A flea market with holiday (prechristmas?) shoppers took up a huge swath of the middle of the park.
Down closer to the water, there were mate sippers, dog walkers,
snoozing old men, and little kids everywhere.
In addition, there were about 50 adults taking part in some Tai Chi direction in the shadow of the Confucious statue....
while techno music pumped out over the lower part of the park from the "W" lounge (who in the heck is listening to techno in a club at 10:30a.m.? :))
We eventually crossed the riverside road and down to the boardwalk and beach. At one of the staircases i noticed a sign that said "animals not allowed". fuBarrio ignored this notice, as did golden lotus and midori (our lab puppy) after seeing a couple of dogs playing in the water and the lifeguard looking on passively.
Midori and Golden Lotus navigated past the girls playing volleyball,
the men playing soccer (futbol) and the sunbathers....... down to the river at low tide, and into the river water. Golden Lotus reported that the water was "quite warm".
Pictures take a while to upload, but over the course of the next few days I'll try to upload a few more here so you can get a flavor for the beautiful day.
Ciao,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
You + US = FUBAR!
oops.
UBS just announced *another* $10B in writedowns??? Blamed bad "subprime" mortgages of course.
holy crap.
anyone remember the good ole days when a "rogue trader" nick leeson lost a "mere" $1.4B and bankrupted Barings, a 233 year old bank?
what's it gonna take before the first of these goliaths get involved in a "take under"?
another couple $10B here and there and that's gonna start to add up to real money :)
...at least until the fed makes it all go away with another rate cut. (that was sacrcasm by the way)
ciao,
fuBarrio
UBS just announced *another* $10B in writedowns??? Blamed bad "subprime" mortgages of course.
holy crap.
anyone remember the good ole days when a "rogue trader" nick leeson lost a "mere" $1.4B and bankrupted Barings, a 233 year old bank?
what's it gonna take before the first of these goliaths get involved in a "take under"?
another couple $10B here and there and that's gonna start to add up to real money :)
...at least until the fed makes it all go away with another rate cut. (that was sacrcasm by the way)
ciao,
fuBarrio
Friday, December 07, 2007
A "Date" that will Live in Infamy
Today is the 4th anniversary of Golden Lotus and fuBarrio's first date.
(uh...oh yeah....and some dudes dropped some bombs on hawaii too)
At the fuBarrio household as you might imagine however, the year 2003 is much more important than 1941.
Dec the 7th each year starts a "murderer's row" of special dates to be remembered and commemorated for fuBarrio culminating either with Golden Lotus's birthday in January or Valentine's day scarcely more than 30 days later.
While maturity and poverty have meant that fuBarrio can step down the financial extravegance of the gifts.....the maturity of the relationship means that he has to put special thought into doing something "special" for each -- anniversary, xmas, new years eve, bday, vday
:)
LUCKILY, now that we live in south america....nice weather outdoors this time of year opens up a new wealth of possibilities. not available when we lived in the north
....(i won't give you all the details of our surf outing on her birthday during a january storm in california....let's just say i'm still coughing up salt water)
Any ideas that can help a bald spotted rabid dog with his quandry can be placed in the comments section or emailed to me.....(and, yes, massive facial reconstructive surgery was contemplated but voted down due to cost and the recovery time would mean i'd miss the westminster kennels prequalifiers)
ciao,
fuBarrio
(uh...oh yeah....and some dudes dropped some bombs on hawaii too)
At the fuBarrio household as you might imagine however, the year 2003 is much more important than 1941.
Dec the 7th each year starts a "murderer's row" of special dates to be remembered and commemorated for fuBarrio culminating either with Golden Lotus's birthday in January or Valentine's day scarcely more than 30 days later.
While maturity and poverty have meant that fuBarrio can step down the financial extravegance of the gifts.....the maturity of the relationship means that he has to put special thought into doing something "special" for each -- anniversary, xmas, new years eve, bday, vday
:)
LUCKILY, now that we live in south america....nice weather outdoors this time of year opens up a new wealth of possibilities. not available when we lived in the north
....(i won't give you all the details of our surf outing on her birthday during a january storm in california....let's just say i'm still coughing up salt water)
Any ideas that can help a bald spotted rabid dog with his quandry can be placed in the comments section or emailed to me.....(and, yes, massive facial reconstructive surgery was contemplated but voted down due to cost and the recovery time would mean i'd miss the westminster kennels prequalifiers)
ciao,
fuBarrio
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Punta Carretas
Punta Carretas is the neighborhood that Golden Lotus and fuBarrio call home. Golden Lotus shot these fotos the other day on a walk to the grocery store.
Golden Lotus seems to be a lot more talented at taking pictures than fuBarrio....must be the opposible thumb ....or the eyes without cataracts...
ciao,fubarrio
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Yellow Lab Puppy
It should be obvious to all by now that Golden Lotus has a soft spot for canines.
After all, she has managed to overlook fubarrio's generally disagreeable temperment and unsettling appearance for all these years.
Let's just say that, unfortunately, fuBarrio is facing his most serious challenge yet to his alpha-dog supremecy....."Midori". Two months old.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, November 11, 2007
Our Accomodations in Brasil - Lexus Ingleses
Here is where we stayed.....I didn't really know anything about if before we got there. It was setup by a travel agent. I guess they aren't too strict on trademark infringement in Brasil yet.
The room included breakfast and dinner. 5 days, four nights, flights from mvd and 50 minute trip to hotel from a/p and back ran about $1000 including taxes and airport charges (ugh)....of course the visas were another $340 -- remember get your brasilian visas up north. they gouge here in montevideo.
The restaurant was ok....the outdoor pool a little lame....the indoor pool looked cloudy/filthy. the location on the beach was awesome, water still a little chilly this far south this time of year....weather was amazing most days....the rooms were "adequate", but not high-end. They seemed like they were outfitted to make it easier to clean the sand out that that guests invariably track in. Each room was actually a suite, and also had a little fridge, plates dishes, cups, silverware, pots/pans and a "hotplate" of sorts for cooking in the rooms.
While the hotel overall wasn't bad, the name "Lexus Ingleses" made me laugh, and I told Golden Lotus that it was more like the "Hyundai Ingleses" :)
That said, of course, it was markedly better looking that this thing down the beach from us.....get a load of the name on the matching boat out front.....fitting since this paintjob is a total nightmare.
Fishermen In Brasil
Some Brasilians Cleaning out their nets on an overcast morning after fishing in Praia Inglesis, Florianopolis, SE Brasil. The seagulls are circling around waiting for the droppings...
fB
Thursday, November 08, 2007
Florianopolis, Brasil
after almost a year and a half of talking about it, golden lotus and i finally went to brasil for a short (5 day) trip.
the country is huge, and we didn't see much of even the town we visited, but i'll give you some general impressions here and follow it up with some pictures in a later post:
It's a cool place.
They have a lot more diversity there than uruguay -- even in the whitewashed south east corner that we visited. some (especially uruguayos) may disparage it, but it was a welcome change for me.
it's a lot more of a car culture. i think the taxes are lower on cars. the roads are big. lots of malls with big parkings lots. looked a lot more like the US than either argentina or uruguay -- closer to chile. btw, i noticed that gasoline was 2.50 reales, and ethanol was 1.50 reales per litre (sugar based)
the dollar's shellacking has hurt "affordability" for expats. it's still cheap-ish but the real has gone from about 3 to the dollar to 1.75 (ouch) -- i guess that's what energy independence and subsequently not being forced to secure supplies in the desert will get you. amazing, since these guys are notorious for destroying currencies.
weather in SE part was awesome. this would be the "colder" part of the country
although i'm sure there is crime there, it is NOTHING like advertised from what i saw (again in SE part only). saw no crime, or signs of it. saw people walking around with valuable watches/jewlery in not that great of neighborhoods. i was very concerned about security after talkin to people about rio and sao paulo, but again, it's a big country with lots of texture i guess.
portuguese, while relatively understandable for spanish readers (while in written form) is pretty hard to follow with only 5 days of exposure! :) i got by with a little bit of hacky portuguese (VERY little) and spanish most of the time. lots of people will understand your spanish and then talk back to you in portuguese :) good luck. i've been told speaking spanish loudly with a gringo accent is bad form in sketchier areas as it can make you an easy target of tourist crime.
the people --
almost *anyone* could look like a potential brazilian -- we even saw asians.
now, all my single guy friends will want to know about the women. i've *heard* that the NORTH is where all the beautiful women are. again, we were in the south.
golden lotus and i talked about this and concluded that people in the south (for the most part) looked very average -- with women wearning tighter clothes and heels (not very typical in Uruguay).
however, the "looks" didn't follow a normal bell curve distribution. there were a bunch of average people but a disproportionately larger number of women that were very well "taken care of" -- outliers if you will....only there were too many to account for them all as outliers.
i assume that the guys followed the same pattern but golden lotus was kind and said that she only had eyes for her balding spotted dog! :)
I'll follow up with some pics once i download them from the camera.
ciao,
fuBarrio
the country is huge, and we didn't see much of even the town we visited, but i'll give you some general impressions here and follow it up with some pictures in a later post:
It's a cool place.
They have a lot more diversity there than uruguay -- even in the whitewashed south east corner that we visited. some (especially uruguayos) may disparage it, but it was a welcome change for me.
it's a lot more of a car culture. i think the taxes are lower on cars. the roads are big. lots of malls with big parkings lots. looked a lot more like the US than either argentina or uruguay -- closer to chile. btw, i noticed that gasoline was 2.50 reales, and ethanol was 1.50 reales per litre (sugar based)
the dollar's shellacking has hurt "affordability" for expats. it's still cheap-ish but the real has gone from about 3 to the dollar to 1.75 (ouch) -- i guess that's what energy independence and subsequently not being forced to secure supplies in the desert will get you. amazing, since these guys are notorious for destroying currencies.
weather in SE part was awesome. this would be the "colder" part of the country
although i'm sure there is crime there, it is NOTHING like advertised from what i saw (again in SE part only). saw no crime, or signs of it. saw people walking around with valuable watches/jewlery in not that great of neighborhoods. i was very concerned about security after talkin to people about rio and sao paulo, but again, it's a big country with lots of texture i guess.
portuguese, while relatively understandable for spanish readers (while in written form) is pretty hard to follow with only 5 days of exposure! :) i got by with a little bit of hacky portuguese (VERY little) and spanish most of the time. lots of people will understand your spanish and then talk back to you in portuguese :) good luck. i've been told speaking spanish loudly with a gringo accent is bad form in sketchier areas as it can make you an easy target of tourist crime.
the people --
almost *anyone* could look like a potential brazilian -- we even saw asians.
now, all my single guy friends will want to know about the women. i've *heard* that the NORTH is where all the beautiful women are. again, we were in the south.
golden lotus and i talked about this and concluded that people in the south (for the most part) looked very average -- with women wearning tighter clothes and heels (not very typical in Uruguay).
however, the "looks" didn't follow a normal bell curve distribution. there were a bunch of average people but a disproportionately larger number of women that were very well "taken care of" -- outliers if you will....only there were too many to account for them all as outliers.
i assume that the guys followed the same pattern but golden lotus was kind and said that she only had eyes for her balding spotted dog! :)
I'll follow up with some pics once i download them from the camera.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
GIX.V
Was watching Canadian Biz TV and a guy who makes a living promoting junior miners was talking about GIX on the Canadian venture Exchange. He talked about lots of stocks but this one seemed the most interesting.
I woke up the next morning to see that the stock had shot up on his words....but rather than kick myself for missing out on the move, I noticed something really interesting starting to set up on this thing....
If physical gold pulls back a bit in the next little bit from the 780-790 range -- or for some other perfectly sound reason, this stock cools off and pulls back from it's recent highs after touching near it's previous high, this is one I'm goin to be watching.
While the volume didn't die out completely, this is a "decent" little cup formation on the back of an explosive upmove....If the chart for whatever reason creates a nice little trough (or "HANDLE") to aforementioned cup it could be setting up a nice little trade.
The idea is that you'd want to buy the stock at the point it broke through the point of resistance...one can often get a quick 20%+ on such a setup
I'll keep you posted.
ciao,
fubarrio
the Return of Bread and Circuses...part II
Hi all,
fuBarrio's snaggle-toothed snarling grin is already salivating in apparent pavlovian response to something that happened last week.
in perhaps one of the coolest things ever one of my three dedicated readers did something that single-handedly cemented the likeli-hood of a higher frequency of deranged fuBarrio sightings than has been seen over the last 6 months.
you see, while Uruguay is the land of milk 'n honey, one of the things it unfortunately (for fuBarrio) is NOT, is the land of HOSTESS!!!
why is this relevant?
well, in case you are new around here, fuBarrio often appears after over consumption of corn syrup and sugar laden "north american style" junk food, in all of its empty calorie grandeur! The fuel that keeps fuBarrio going most assuredly is the oft-cited, Hostess Twinkie Snack Cakes.
...the golden fluffy sponge cake, centering the "creamy" whipped-oil-sugar "goodness" on the inside. two great tastes that taste great together!!! especially when consumed in inappropriately large amounts for someone with my blood-sugar temperament.
After numerous unsuccessful calls to the people at Hostess, and a miserably failed letter writing and petition campaign, the people at Hostess informed me that Twinkie's would NOT be coming to store shelves in Uruguay anytime soon. After many inquiries, they muttered something about the infrastructure of international "baked goods" being weak.....
...devestation, disappointment, malaise...who knew that a twinkie could actually go "bad"?....for that matter, who knew that a twinkie could be classified as "baked good"???
So, while my Circuses (north american cable tv) had been suitably replaced with a slingbox strategically placed withing WA Huskies broadcast territory (thanks mom and dad!) and high speed connectivity, *Bread* (aka Twinkies Hostess Snack Cakes) were still missing.
It's like pepper without salt, peaches without cream, simon without garfunkel....while "OK" by itself, the yin of "Circuses" only become sublime when paired with its yang of "Bread". Almost no sooner than this (ok, semi-original) thought flashed through my mind, I got a phone call from the UruguayLiving.com office. The second (of my three) readers had brought me a gift from the states.....a in home twinkie maker to satisfy my every (over) indulgence in the snack cake of the gods.
Golden Lotus has graciously offered to help with the "whipped sugar oil" filling since apparently it is best attempted by someone with opposible thumbs.
To the two of you who have enjoyed a kindler, gentler, blog these last few months I have some disappointing news; you can probably expect a lot more junk-food fueled, maniacal fuBarrio sightings here in the near future.
"chow" :),
fuBarrio
fuBarrio's snaggle-toothed snarling grin is already salivating in apparent pavlovian response to something that happened last week.
in perhaps one of the coolest things ever one of my three dedicated readers did something that single-handedly cemented the likeli-hood of a higher frequency of deranged fuBarrio sightings than has been seen over the last 6 months.
you see, while Uruguay is the land of milk 'n honey, one of the things it unfortunately (for fuBarrio) is NOT, is the land of HOSTESS!!!
why is this relevant?
well, in case you are new around here, fuBarrio often appears after over consumption of corn syrup and sugar laden "north american style" junk food, in all of its empty calorie grandeur! The fuel that keeps fuBarrio going most assuredly is the oft-cited, Hostess Twinkie Snack Cakes.
...the golden fluffy sponge cake, centering the "creamy" whipped-oil-sugar "goodness" on the inside. two great tastes that taste great together!!! especially when consumed in inappropriately large amounts for someone with my blood-sugar temperament.
After numerous unsuccessful calls to the people at Hostess, and a miserably failed letter writing and petition campaign, the people at Hostess informed me that Twinkie's would NOT be coming to store shelves in Uruguay anytime soon. After many inquiries, they muttered something about the infrastructure of international "baked goods" being weak.....
...devestation, disappointment, malaise...who knew that a twinkie could actually go "bad"?....for that matter, who knew that a twinkie could be classified as "baked good"???
So, while my Circuses (north american cable tv) had been suitably replaced with a slingbox strategically placed withing WA Huskies broadcast territory (thanks mom and dad!) and high speed connectivity, *Bread* (aka Twinkies Hostess Snack Cakes) were still missing.
It's like pepper without salt, peaches without cream, simon without garfunkel....while "OK" by itself, the yin of "Circuses" only become sublime when paired with its yang of "Bread". Almost no sooner than this (ok, semi-original) thought flashed through my mind, I got a phone call from the UruguayLiving.com office. The second (of my three) readers had brought me a gift from the states.....a in home twinkie maker to satisfy my every (over) indulgence in the snack cake of the gods.
Golden Lotus has graciously offered to help with the "whipped sugar oil" filling since apparently it is best attempted by someone with opposible thumbs.
To the two of you who have enjoyed a kindler, gentler, blog these last few months I have some disappointing news; you can probably expect a lot more junk-food fueled, maniacal fuBarrio sightings here in the near future.
"chow" :),
fuBarrio
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Damages are Contained -- to Earth
I was watching "Damages" season finale last night on my Circuses box (slingbox).
For those that haven't seen it, it's about a big class action lawsuit carried out on a shady businessman (think Enron) who got out of his stock with inside information before the SEC announced an investigation into shady accounting. This, of course, is being carried out by an even shadier lawyer.
It was funny, because I know they filmed this in the spirit of Enron (and probably worldcom, tyco, etc etc), but they things they were saying sounded earily familiar.
He was being investigated for "hiding debts in offshore entities made to hold bad debts off the balance sheet" and "booking income in the present period based on expected income." (cash flows that were future hopes rather than present realities).
I know alot of you are thinking "Yeah, Enron", but look at our current lending environment.
You've got banks creating SIVs...(not sieve) to hold bad assets off their current balance sheets -- otherwise they'd have to pony up more in the way of reserves for the banking regulators.
AND you've got option ARM writers booking the increase in mortgage principal that payers are adding to their loans by paying the minimum as REVENUE. In other words, in some bizarre twist of logic and GAAP reason, they are booking money with the lowest probability of ever bein repaid as revenue in the current period.
DOH!
I mean, I know we are a stoopid people...after all, if you couldn't see shades of Vietnam -- especially in the rhetoric before it all started -- you were blinder than the cataract encrusted pooch that resides here.
but, C'MON for crap sakes....Enron only blew up like 6 years ago and the trial of the principals JUST FINISHED.....ridiculous.
In other news, I was going to run a really tasteless headline like, "Suprise, So Cal RE is ON FIRE"...or "RED HOT"...or pick your other tasteless joke. Just heard my cousin and his family barely got out of their house with their lives....in fact he was hospitalized.....
They'll be able to return to the house in a day or two to see if anything made it, but as of now, from what I hear, they have their pajamas and each other (and that's it).
Good luck to them, and the prayers of Golden Lotus and I are with them and all the other leftcoasters caught in the blaze.
ciao,
fuBarrio
For those that haven't seen it, it's about a big class action lawsuit carried out on a shady businessman (think Enron) who got out of his stock with inside information before the SEC announced an investigation into shady accounting. This, of course, is being carried out by an even shadier lawyer.
It was funny, because I know they filmed this in the spirit of Enron (and probably worldcom, tyco, etc etc), but they things they were saying sounded earily familiar.
He was being investigated for "hiding debts in offshore entities made to hold bad debts off the balance sheet" and "booking income in the present period based on expected income." (cash flows that were future hopes rather than present realities).
I know alot of you are thinking "Yeah, Enron", but look at our current lending environment.
You've got banks creating SIVs...(not sieve) to hold bad assets off their current balance sheets -- otherwise they'd have to pony up more in the way of reserves for the banking regulators.
AND you've got option ARM writers booking the increase in mortgage principal that payers are adding to their loans by paying the minimum as REVENUE. In other words, in some bizarre twist of logic and GAAP reason, they are booking money with the lowest probability of ever bein repaid as revenue in the current period.
DOH!
I mean, I know we are a stoopid people...after all, if you couldn't see shades of Vietnam -- especially in the rhetoric before it all started -- you were blinder than the cataract encrusted pooch that resides here.
but, C'MON for crap sakes....Enron only blew up like 6 years ago and the trial of the principals JUST FINISHED.....ridiculous.
In other news, I was going to run a really tasteless headline like, "Suprise, So Cal RE is ON FIRE"...or "RED HOT"...or pick your other tasteless joke. Just heard my cousin and his family barely got out of their house with their lives....in fact he was hospitalized.....
They'll be able to return to the house in a day or two to see if anything made it, but as of now, from what I hear, they have their pajamas and each other (and that's it).
Good luck to them, and the prayers of Golden Lotus and I are with them and all the other leftcoasters caught in the blaze.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Monday, October 22, 2007
Estadio Centenario - Montevideo
GL and I attended the Uruguay v. Bolivia futbol (soccer) match on October 13th. It was the opening weekend of the SouthAmerican qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup.
It rocked.
Uruguay got up 2-0 and then a player from the Bolivian team was red-carded for some rough play after a previous yellow (unwarranted) for arguing a call that the linesman missed. The final tally was 5-0 Uruguay.
The crowd seemed to love every minute of it, and was very familiar with all of the players, including gettin very excited when they could tell when one of their favorite substitutes was gettin ready to come into the game.
About a month from now Chile comes to town for a match...definately planning on going to that match....nothing would be sweeter for fuBarrio than to have little Uruguay stomp the Chileans
I have alot more pics, but blogger is making me a bit crazy -- the last couple of days it's been unwilling to upload my pics without cutting off my connection. I'll try to remember to add them later.
ciao,
fuBarrio
Velodromo - Montevideo
Close to "Estadio Centenario" (Century Stadium) is the Montevideo "Velodromo" (Velodrome).
Estadio Centenario looks like it was built for the 1930 World Cup that was held here in Montevideo. The Velodrome, appears to have been built during the same time period with the art deco lettering, but I can't verify that as I'm too lazy to google or wikipedia it :)
As you can see it seems to be in a state of disrepair, however it still receives what looks like a fair amount of use.
Ciao,
fuBarrio
Sunday, October 21, 2007
fuBarrio Shrugged
I just looked at my blog and noticed that I haven't been keeping up with my normal flury of semi-coherent posts the last couple of weeks.
What can I say?
Is it that the world has finally come to its senses? No. I can't definitively say that is the case at all? Are there fewer absurdities to ridicule? No. Again, I wouldn't say that.
Why just today I was reading an article posted on the New York times about a professor who wrote a paper about gold and stocks.....he thinks that they are disconnected from their historical adverse relationship and either gold is anticipating inflation or it is *wrong* right now....his reason: inflation has gone down the last 5 years at the same time gold was going up. do professors shop, go to the hospital, pay tuition or drive cars?
the counter argument is that the gov't stats for inflation are cooked.
his "counter-counter" is that if the numbers are cooked, it's ok, cause he is only measuring changes in the cooked numbers to changes to the cooked numbers now....
uh, fuBarrio's counter counter counter is that you can't use something that can be CHANGED as a baseline for anything!!! the cpi measurements have changed countless times over that period, and in everycase I'm aware of, the changes understate price inflation.
Look, I realize that this story and my arguments against this egghead aren't backed up by links, direct quotes, or even a storyline that is easy to follow....And, it's the same reason that i haven't posted a lot lately:
I would have to chalk it up to good old fashioned apathy.
The reach of some egghead professor getting a writeup in the New York Times is mindboggling. Nevermind that his analysis is completely flawed, and as a matter of fact if you'd followed his advice up until now you'd have LOST MONEY.
It seems like anyone that doesn't have something to gain by having their voice heard is drowned out by the rampant commercialism of opinions these days.
Larry "cocaine" Kudlow was telling me - on CNBC where he's afforded an hour every day - gold was going back to 400 shortly before I came down to Uruguay because his connections at the Fed were bound and determined to crush out speculation as it was a signal to the market that inflation was cropping up.
Where is the "mea-culpa"???
Steve Forbes, riding the coattails of his old man's media empire made some monster prognostication that oil was going back to $35/barrel right before I came down to Uruguay. I think I just saw that it punctured the $90 mark in the front month futures contract.
The sad part is that Cocaine Kudlow and Steve Forbes will *always* have more influence, wealth, power, comfort, supporters, for themselves and their families than some doofus like fuBarrio. Their children will enter the ivy league schools, have the introductions to others in the halls of power and continue the incestuous inbreeding that is bifurcating our society into those that have and control and those that shine their shoes.
Were Forbes and Kudlow really serious that they believed these prognostications or were they asked to lie for a grander economic or political purpose???
Either way, they should be ashamed.....tarred and feathered....strung up by their gonads and ridiculed.
Is it so bad to make a prediction and be wrong? of course now, but how about a little bit of admission of fault. Forbes did a freakin' press junket in support of his absurd $35/barrel call.
What the Hell does Steve Forbes know about Oil? The sad thing is, he has name recognition (and a conduit to be heard), so people will listen to his "wishes" over the sound reasoning and science put forward by someone like Matthew Simmons who insists that Saudi Arabia is peaking (or has already peaked) with light sweet crude production.
In light of it all, is it any wonder that fuBarrio is shrugging?
ciao,
fuBarrio
What can I say?
Is it that the world has finally come to its senses? No. I can't definitively say that is the case at all? Are there fewer absurdities to ridicule? No. Again, I wouldn't say that.
Why just today I was reading an article posted on the New York times about a professor who wrote a paper about gold and stocks.....he thinks that they are disconnected from their historical adverse relationship and either gold is anticipating inflation or it is *wrong* right now....his reason: inflation has gone down the last 5 years at the same time gold was going up. do professors shop, go to the hospital, pay tuition or drive cars?
the counter argument is that the gov't stats for inflation are cooked.
his "counter-counter" is that if the numbers are cooked, it's ok, cause he is only measuring changes in the cooked numbers to changes to the cooked numbers now....
uh, fuBarrio's counter counter counter is that you can't use something that can be CHANGED as a baseline for anything!!! the cpi measurements have changed countless times over that period, and in everycase I'm aware of, the changes understate price inflation.
Look, I realize that this story and my arguments against this egghead aren't backed up by links, direct quotes, or even a storyline that is easy to follow....And, it's the same reason that i haven't posted a lot lately:
I would have to chalk it up to good old fashioned apathy.
The reach of some egghead professor getting a writeup in the New York Times is mindboggling. Nevermind that his analysis is completely flawed, and as a matter of fact if you'd followed his advice up until now you'd have LOST MONEY.
It seems like anyone that doesn't have something to gain by having their voice heard is drowned out by the rampant commercialism of opinions these days.
Larry "cocaine" Kudlow was telling me - on CNBC where he's afforded an hour every day - gold was going back to 400 shortly before I came down to Uruguay because his connections at the Fed were bound and determined to crush out speculation as it was a signal to the market that inflation was cropping up.
Where is the "mea-culpa"???
Steve Forbes, riding the coattails of his old man's media empire made some monster prognostication that oil was going back to $35/barrel right before I came down to Uruguay. I think I just saw that it punctured the $90 mark in the front month futures contract.
The sad part is that Cocaine Kudlow and Steve Forbes will *always* have more influence, wealth, power, comfort, supporters, for themselves and their families than some doofus like fuBarrio. Their children will enter the ivy league schools, have the introductions to others in the halls of power and continue the incestuous inbreeding that is bifurcating our society into those that have and control and those that shine their shoes.
Were Forbes and Kudlow really serious that they believed these prognostications or were they asked to lie for a grander economic or political purpose???
Either way, they should be ashamed.....tarred and feathered....strung up by their gonads and ridiculed.
Is it so bad to make a prediction and be wrong? of course now, but how about a little bit of admission of fault. Forbes did a freakin' press junket in support of his absurd $35/barrel call.
What the Hell does Steve Forbes know about Oil? The sad thing is, he has name recognition (and a conduit to be heard), so people will listen to his "wishes" over the sound reasoning and science put forward by someone like Matthew Simmons who insists that Saudi Arabia is peaking (or has already peaked) with light sweet crude production.
In light of it all, is it any wonder that fuBarrio is shrugging?
ciao,
fuBarrio
Thursday, October 11, 2007
Money as Debt
Ever wonder how productivity can keep improving each year and yet we have to work harder and harder (now with two breadwinners) to keep up?
In "the fourth turning" the authors say that in the fourth turning that people eventually tend to coalesce an understanding that a lot of their struggles, concerns and "undesirable effects" are all interrelated to a root cause (or two).
This video comes as close to explaining everything in a simple manner as I've ever seen. If you can sit through this 40 minute cartoon, there is plenty more of this kind of thing online....none quite so powerful as this one in its simplicity though.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&hl=en
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
In "the fourth turning" the authors say that in the fourth turning that people eventually tend to coalesce an understanding that a lot of their struggles, concerns and "undesirable effects" are all interrelated to a root cause (or two).
This video comes as close to explaining everything in a simple manner as I've ever seen. If you can sit through this 40 minute cartoon, there is plenty more of this kind of thing online....none quite so powerful as this one in its simplicity though.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&hl=en
Enjoy,
fuBarrio
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Mortgage Meltdown 2007
The title I stole from CNN.com
Pretty amusing. Here's what's NOT amusing.....
Mortgage Meltdown
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?
From the article when talking about borrowers who had bought way more house than they could really afford by getting an ARM with low "teaser" rates to make their payments low.....essentiall either betting on a huge change in household income in a couple of years or (more likely) continued appreciation bailing them out (yeah, that's responsible)....
"'Keep it at the starter rate. Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it,' Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said in prepared remarks at an investor's conference. "
THAT is the solution being proposed by the CHAIRMAN of the FDIC? Yeah, no moral hazard there....
To quote the venerable Mogambo guru, "We're DOOMED! DOOMED I say!
ciao,
fubarrio
Pretty amusing. Here's what's NOT amusing.....
Mortgage Meltdown
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?
From the article when talking about borrowers who had bought way more house than they could really afford by getting an ARM with low "teaser" rates to make their payments low.....essentiall either betting on a huge change in household income in a couple of years or (more likely) continued appreciation bailing them out (yeah, that's responsible)....
"'Keep it at the starter rate. Convert it into a fixed rate. Make it permanent. And get on with it,' Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said in prepared remarks at an investor's conference. "
THAT is the solution being proposed by the CHAIRMAN of the FDIC? Yeah, no moral hazard there....
To quote the venerable Mogambo guru, "We're DOOMED! DOOMED I say!
ciao,
fubarrio
Friday, October 05, 2007
Uruguay Directory
I've been doing a lot of "work" lately of dubious financial value..... I've been wasting a lot of nights studying different content management systems, creating sites of possible societal value (at least for expats living in Uruguay).
I remember shaking my head at my friend "IBMikey" as he descended down the rabbit hole trying to figure out Joomla to launch his site http://www.outinuruguay.com/ Now, I'm starting to understand how he felt. I thankfully left behind this web stuff a LOOOONG time ago. Trying to push the last 7 years into a few months is getting a little overwhelming...however, we have had some small successes...
One of the latest sites that we launched is a Montevideo Uruguay Directory.
The idea is to give those people who have something to post of a commercial nature, a place to do it, instead of getting into fights over content that lives in the free forum.
It was sort of done one a budget (meaning NO budget) so we ended up using the PHP Bulletin Board software that is freeware. LUCKILY, we have a kindred spirit in the states that helped us set it up...I won't use his name here cuz he's a little sensitive about it (i think) but it's the same dude that made the sketch of my first fuBarrio gold coin.
In that vein, check it out and keep the heckling to a minimum. If someone knows of some sort of "craigslist-esque" open source software let me know. That could be the way we go for version 2. Once we've done enough "real" work to pay for all this distraction! :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. click here to check out the Uruguay Directory
I remember shaking my head at my friend "IBMikey" as he descended down the rabbit hole trying to figure out Joomla to launch his site http://www.outinuruguay.com/ Now, I'm starting to understand how he felt. I thankfully left behind this web stuff a LOOOONG time ago. Trying to push the last 7 years into a few months is getting a little overwhelming...however, we have had some small successes...
One of the latest sites that we launched is a Montevideo Uruguay Directory.
The idea is to give those people who have something to post of a commercial nature, a place to do it, instead of getting into fights over content that lives in the free forum.
It was sort of done one a budget (meaning NO budget) so we ended up using the PHP Bulletin Board software that is freeware. LUCKILY, we have a kindred spirit in the states that helped us set it up...I won't use his name here cuz he's a little sensitive about it (i think) but it's the same dude that made the sketch of my first fuBarrio gold coin.
In that vein, check it out and keep the heckling to a minimum. If someone knows of some sort of "craigslist-esque" open source software let me know. That could be the way we go for version 2. Once we've done enough "real" work to pay for all this distraction! :)
ciao,
fuBarrio
p.s. click here to check out the Uruguay Directory
Monday, October 01, 2007
266 isn't old -- if you're a Tree!
Yeah, 266, in dog years, creeps up on you fast. Most of us, I'm sure (if we aren't so old our memories are failing) can remember pretty clearly when our parents were 266 and can remember thinking pretty clearly, "damn, you're old".
Of course, that was them...We're not old, right?
Ever since fuBarrio was a young (devil) pup he has joked about being "old".
Then, about 5 years ago, fuBarrio's younger friends stopped protesting such declarations
While single five years ago, and working at his job WAY too much to meet anyone, on the advice of aforementioned young/hip friends fuBarrio considered registering for online dating at match.com. fuBarrio decided not to when he noticed that the maximum age on the registration drop down was 35 :) -- hitting a little too close for home there.
fuBarrio's still limping after playing basketball with a bunch of octogenarians a couple of months ago
fuBarrio attended his 20 year reunion a couple of months ago
...but the most agredious of all the these indignities has to be.....
fuBarrio is losing his hair!!!!!
(oh the humanity)
Well, certainly there are many indignities awaiting us all on the way to puree dinners and adult diapers, but one issue bothers fubarrio more than others. Of course, not one to take such an unexpected course of events lying down (it always happens to the other guy) fuBarrio went on a made hunt for solutions. Below is a list of some options along with the short comments summarizing fuBarrio's initial research.
Of course, that was them...We're not old, right?
Let's see...
Did we just yesterday notice our kids rolling their eyes as we tried to interject the latest slang into our speech? It seems like just yesterday we were the ones rolling our eyes.
And for that matter, when did Madison Avenue get so "hip"?
I seem to remember they were always years behind the curve. "Old" people would chuckly maniacally as Madison avenue presented some "humorous" view on pop-culture....kids of course would notice that the representation of the kids on screen was about a year and a half out of date (a lifetime when your "with it"!)
But, 266 isn't so bad right....it's like the new 196, right?....or so those out-of-date Madison Avenue types try to tell us.
Lately though, fuBarrio has noticed that Uncle Sam isn't the only one on the decline. It started subtley. At first it was just small things. Almost straws in the wind. Lately though the evidence has begun mounting.
Ever since fuBarrio was a young (devil) pup he has joked about being "old".
Then, about 5 years ago, fuBarrio's younger friends stopped protesting such declarations
While single five years ago, and working at his job WAY too much to meet anyone, on the advice of aforementioned young/hip friends fuBarrio considered registering for online dating at match.com. fuBarrio decided not to when he noticed that the maximum age on the registration drop down was 35 :) -- hitting a little too close for home there.
fuBarrio's still limping after playing basketball with a bunch of octogenarians a couple of months ago
fuBarrio attended his 20 year reunion a couple of months ago
...but the most agredious of all the these indignities has to be.....
fuBarrio is losing his hair!!!!!
(oh the humanity)
Well, certainly there are many indignities awaiting us all on the way to puree dinners and adult diapers, but one issue bothers fubarrio more than others. Of course, not one to take such an unexpected course of events lying down (it always happens to the other guy) fuBarrio went on a made hunt for solutions. Below is a list of some options along with the short comments summarizing fuBarrio's initial research.
- becoming a "member" (har-har)
- lots of mysterious baseball hat wearing in inappriopriate situations
- aunt gemima bandana (actually saw brett michaels of poison fame trying to pull this one off on VH-1).
- Minoxidil
- Propecia
- Comb Over
- The Krylon solution
- Kojak Solution
Becoming a "member":
I think i have to actually lose more hair before this becomes a real option. The ads are full of pretty creepy dudes too...so that's a minus.
Ball Cap:
This one's pretty lame. 20 somethings can almost pull it off. I notice a lot of dudes only came to the informal Friday night portion of the (aforementioned) reunion. I couldn't tell if this was to avoid the 50 dollar charge for the Saturday dinner, or they didn't want to forced to show off their baldness. Probably a little of both.
I'd be a little more keen on this one if it didn't make my forehead breakout. Don't most people get to enjoy a period of time between breakouts and hairloss? :)
Aunt Jemima:
This one's closely related to the Ball Cap gambit. I wouldn't ordinarily think of it outside of the "hood", but I just saw Brett Michaels (of "Poison" (in)fame) trying to pull of this look on VH-1 -- For an entire series! :)
Minoxidil:
I'm not even sure they sell this in Uruguay, however, I did see on TV (in the states) that they sell it without prescription now -- so it's a LITTLE less humiliating. Probably not the good stuff though...just some watered down version. I got freaked out when a bald friend said that if you use it and stop, your hair returns to "trend". He was basically saying all the "treated" hairs that decided to stick around, which otherwise would not have, all fall out at once. Not sure if this is true but it sounds like "lock in" to me....or a serious barrier to adoption, as in my case.
Propecia:
This one seems a little better, especially if i could get the pill online from one of those email spammers! :) Of course, I had a *different* friend who looked into this for a pituitary problem (lots of weird side effects with pituitary tumors) and a specialist told him it decreases the volume of your "man sauce".
uh...I'm not shooting any movies or anything so it doesn't seem like such a big deal but then it leads me thinking that it sounds more like a *symptom* of a deeper more disturbing side effect of some kind. I'll prefer to wait a few more years for them to figure that one out.
Comb Over:
I said "266" not "666". 'nuff said. (I did see a sweet documentary on google on these though)
The Krylon Solution:
This one, from what I can tell in the late night infomercial is basically just spray paint....hence, the reason i call it the "krylon solution". Oh yeah, and they also throw in some cheap plastic combs too....This one seems better suited for:
- people balding in the back, not the front.
- people who live with lots of blind and/or delusional people
The Kojak Solution:
This one seems to be the most well-respected option these days. It was cool in the 70's...out in the 80's....came back again in the 90's and just hasn't faded out yet....or is that just my "non-hipness" again?
If my head wasn't so pointy, and my skin so pastey and/or i didn't live beneath a hole in the ozone layer this would be the "no brainer" option I think.
Anyone have a baseball hat that would look good on a blind dog?
ciao,
fuBarrio
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