Under the Weather in Uruguay

Warning: From what I've seen....if you have any kind of chronic respiratory problems, you do NOT want to be here for the June through August time period. You WILL catch the flu (unless you have ZERO human contact) and I know a few people who've been coughing and hacking for well over a month already. The flu, coupled with respiratory problems to begin with, coupled with the cold, damp weather this time of year is pretty tough on those who aren't accustomed.

___________________

Winter in Uruguay is decidedly nicer than the winters I spent growing up in Washington state. While there are certainly days in Uruguay that can be as nasty as any western Washington winter, Uruguay doesn't tend to string 30 or 40 of these days in a row.

Interspersed with the dreadful, wet, cold days that put Golden Lotus and much of the rest of the country into "deep cover" are the wonderfully bright, sunny, temperate days that are in the majority of my pictures.

That said, if you were born, grew up in, or have become acustomed to a temperate climate I would try my best to avoid Uruguay from the second half of May until about the second week of September. As (i think) I wrote earlier, the entire country's buildings seem dreadfully underbuilt/underinsulated for the kind of weather that hits between these months. Depending on your situation you might find yourself with a chill that lasts about three months.

I know, some New Englander or Minnesotan is laughing right now...after all it doesn't even freeze here. But have you ever been poorly clothed, in the woods for an extended period of time (especially at night) and gotten wet? That's how I would equate the situation in Uruguay....It's like the homes and apartment buildings went out in a light cotton hoody when they should have brought their polar fleece and gortex.

ciao,

fuBarrio

Commercialism in Uruguay

I came home this evening to see that the street to my apartment was blocked off with road cones and they were shooting a commerical on the corner.

Sorry the pic isn't so great. Really didn't want to stick around until I got a nicely framed/focused shot. :)

ciao,

fuBarrio

:)

i've been trying to catch this guy walking these beagles for about 8 months. finally, found him on the street and just went up and asked him to hold still for a minute. not as cool as a "candid" but trying to catch those pooches in focus and in one frame was proving tough.

ciao,

fuBarrio

Sunshine and Strawberries in Uruguay

Some pics of Montevideo from July. When you see the sunshine and palm trees and your July is so warm in the northern hemisphere, it can be deceiving. Look closely at the digital thermometer in the third picture down. 2 degrees above freezing (celcius) in the middle of the day. ugh.

ciao,

fuBarrio

How's that CD looking Now?

OK...so, you read fuBarrio's chicken little, the sky really is falling proclamation and in fear you noticed that CD's and some treasuries had perked up to 5% returns.



Caution bein the better part of valor and all that, you decided to pack some away for a rainy day....Here's what has happened to the dollar in terms of its ability to buy other well traded currencies so far this year:




As you can see, if the dollar doesn't rebound, you will actually lose purchasing power this year on your CD or fixed income investment. I would go a step further to say that in terms of food and fuel and things you actually need and use, the real inflation in the dollar is bein masked in the USDX chart above by virtue of the fact that it is bein compared to other grossly inflating currencies.



As was discussed here, either the dollar, real estate, or BOTH will fall. I think we know which one of these three has happened by now.



In a bit of potential good news for the dollar, a good friend of mine who doesn't watch this stuff all that closely called me to discuss her concern over the fallin dollar. why is this good news? because either my brain washing is working, or the message that the dollar is a dead duck has filtered down to the masses. about the time these "known knowns" filter down to the masses in a meaningful way is about the time the trade is due for a countertrend rally. in other words maybe us long suffering dollar saving, dollar earning fools will get a short respite in our falling buck.



However, if you do get that respite, enjoy it. It won't last forever....maybe not even long. When I said last year "get your affairs in order" in regards to the dollar I was questioned, "who can predict the future?"



well, c'mon now....in retrospect was it really all that complicated or suprising?



ciao for now,

fuBarrio

A FUBAR'ed week in Review

well, the week began with a hopeful date -- 7-7-07 and then ended on a Friday the 13th. Gold ended the week up, at an even 666 and nat gas was 6.66.

it's enough to make superstitious traders like fuBarrio schizophrenic....if he believed in lucky numbers. however, the only "lucky" numbers in fuBarrio's twisted mind are the ones in fuBarrio's "gains" column, and the unlucky ones are in his "losses" column.

for the week in review i'd like to bring back some characters that you're probably gettin familiar with by now, and at least one that i don't talk about alot....

in this installment i'm goin to "say it with pictures"....then i'm gonna add a bunch of boring words that will confuse, distort, and mislead so that you don't think you can do this stuff without me! :)

i've spent a fair amount of time talking about momentum....favorable chart formations....not buying falling knives, not "top calling" things that are taking off, etc. i've even went so far as to document and dissect my stoopid trade of txm.v earlier this year. so let's revisit txm.v's chart:

as you can see, after a spectacular runup (that i caught a fair portion of) the stock cooled as Uranium hit 100/lb on the spot market. Although Uranium has continued to run up, the speculative furvor in junior miners cooled and a lot of people tooke money off the table. Around that time the predicted "unfavorable" period for miners started and TXM.V along with many other junior U miners went into a dive.

as the summer rolls on I am hoping to see a continuation of the "cup", a retest of highs, a slight pullback (smaller cup, aka handle) and a breakthrough of the highs on high volume the next time it retests the old high.

this has really been the hypothesis all year, however, the depth of the "cup" caught me offguard on txm.v and since i wasn't watchin the chart closely decided to impulse buy when it hit a target price i'd set in my head based on the "old" action.

so, you may ask, "if you're so sure that it'll retest and break through why not buy now?" well, i do hold some txm.v as a long term hold (not a trade right now), but for a true short term speculation buying at the time of breakout (some hypothesize) has a higher chance of returning greater gains over shorter periods.

when reading the economist style manuel this last week....ok, it was just the back cover....i noticed that it said not to brag when you were "right" it was "pedatntic" (?) (or some other big word i don't quite understand). frankly, i was just thrilled there was no negative comments about startin every other sentence with a lowercase letter and putting lots of "....'s" between independent clauses.

anyways, at the risk of bein pedantic here is the chart for glq.to which i showed a couple of weeks ago as being ready to breakout:

notice that it topped out at 4.18 on Friday, up over 39% in few days. if you were actually followin along it actually "gapped" up one of those days and after being up over 15 percent in a couple of days retraced to fill the gap before heading higher still. a more complete discussion of gaps, and filling gaps is worthy of another post....look for that later (or google it).

so, in reference to "why not buy txm.v as a trade now" in a big way....reference my third chart....

a couple of years ago i was buying goldcorp all the way up this big peak....unfortunately, just about the time that gold pulled back in may of '06, management pulled some really shady deals involving mergers/acquisitions and some potentially non-arms length transactions (in my mind).

i was stupid enough to buy some in my IRA in the mid thirties on the way down the back of this waterfall....there was no cup...no pullback...no retest of highs....and after touching 45 it is lucky to be in the high 20's well over a year later.

now, goldcorp is still in a potentially very lucrative industry. but, i don't trust management any further than i can throw them and it's been laziness and apathy (and a thankfully small position) that has kept me from sellin to date for another player....of course, i can't even get a tax loss out of it in my ira :)

it just goes to show, that after a big parabolic runup....a pullback can be a healthy consolidation....or the beginnings of a multiyear slide...it's hard to know until it's all over.

in case you're sick of looking at all these mining companies, you should check out sndk's multiyear chart. the reason i'm familiar is that by shear/dumb luck i caught a big runup in 2005 with a majority of my networth invested in LEAPs (long dated options).

since that big runup it has consolidated pretty heavily for a year and a half and seems to have wrung a lot of the speculative excess out of the trading/attention/ and volumes -- if by some miracle we can stay in a neutral to bullish US market long enough for sandisk to complete it's basing....when that stock runs it can mint you big money.

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

"I Blame the Public Education System"

To be fair, the public education system is "free" (paid for with footballers' taxes, ha ha ha) for all residents of Uruguay through PhD/MD, etc.

Since the govt has taken it on itself to educate the people I found the picture above I took on the way to work mildly amusing this a.m.

To those that don't speak Spanish, the following says, "738 for our government". If you're wondering what 738 means, the nearest i can make out is that it's like a subgroup of the ruling party (think like "teamsters local 39484") -- only problem, "nuestro" is mispelled "Nustro" :)

Of course, given that I haven't used my spellchecker once since starting this blog, and in my last entry i called "fubies" a "fubbies" maybe those who live in glass houses shouldn't find such humor in honest mistakes :)

Coolio,

fuBarrio

First Ever "Fubbies"!

The last few weeks I've been looking around as time permits at some other Uruguay bloggers' work.

Ack!....Humbling I guess is about all I can say.

When I was first trying to research Uruguay in late 2005/early 2006 there really was very little in the way of information (especially in English and/or written from a Northerner's perspective).

I found a few random comments about ciudad vieja being packed with prostitutes (not especially so), cab travel being expensive (depends heavily on your version of "expensive" -- my 10 minute cab ride to work is 3 dollars) and Uruguay being a little bit boring (ok, 1 out of 3).

After arriving and discovering (being shown) the Southron's seminal blog, many others have either become known to me or sprouted up around the same time.

I'm going give a "shout out" to a few newer blogs (well newer to me) which I haven't talked about a lot here in the hopes that you can visit them and get something out of them. God knows, I don't have the energy or talent to write as completely and informatively as these bloggers. So, here is to hoping that there blogs will pick up where I've obviously "left off".

So, without further adieu, the first three "Fubbie" award winners!

Brazzie's Blog
Chuck Stull's Blog
Urufish's Blog

There are many others as well....These three blog's however blow me away in their depth and value and I haven't/don't talk about them enough. If for some reason you stumbled onto my blog and would like to know more about Uruguay and less about Uranium Miners (or whatever the Hell else I'm bloggin about) check these three out.

Ciao,
fuBarrio

muhuhuhuhwahahahahahaha!!!

Wow....Uruguayan footballers are threatening to strike the new income tax....

This place gets more and more like the U.S. every day...Self important professional sports stars, and people with entitlement issues. Follow the link and get a load of the quotes.

http://www.uruguaydailynews.com/2007/07/09/footballers-may-strike-against-new-income-tax/

priceless.

ciao,
fuBarrio

glq.to part II

A Note about Commercialism on fuBarrio.com

Some of you may have noticed that my writing, while more frequently lately, isn't really full of the same rage and indignation that typically fuels my twinkie-filled meglamanical rants.

And yet, I seem to be post more often....Some kind of irrefutable proof that less *is* more?

Well, you may have also noticed that there are a bewildering number links, like the Benefits of Offshore Banking which really don't go into any great general detail about the "benefits of offshore banking" (yet). They are really links to sites that fuBarrio has a commercial interest in! (gasp!) "The horror (whore) or it all!"

Before you think that I'm trying to convince my Uruguayan readers to do business with my Banking compatriates (when we are forbidden to do by law) or trying to get my stateside readers to order OdeFusion authentic asian food in Montevideo, the reality is easier to explain -- and yet, no less sinister and mercenary!!! :)

Google has the interesting "issues" where its algorithm will weight a link with search terms in that link from a "trusted" site before it will a new site. So, effectively, I'm often times just tryin to get some new pages to index and link in the google (or other lesser) search engines for a search term that I feel accurately describes my website.

So, when you see things that look like blatant attempts to lure my 3 readers into a commercial relationship with fuBarrio, that's not exactly it.....though no less blatantly commerical! :)

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

GLQ.TO

just a quick note. Base metals are supposed to be dead again, right?

global copper, for whatever reason, looks like it is retesting its highs.

this looks a little bit like a cup and handle to me....however, one can't be sure until it breaks through that resistance to new highs....a pretty bullish sign for a speculative miner with the rest of the market looking so scary/wobbly/high.

ciao,

fuBarrio

The Tax-man Cometh....to Uruguay

What? I almost forgot some really big Uruguay News. Of course, not being total political nincompoops (sp?) the Uruguayan politicos lowered the VAT a "trifle" on some goods FIRST as a tradeoff for collecting an income tax.

One of the really nice things about being an Uruguayan citizen and resident - no personal income tax - is going away. It promises to encourage more gray-market activities, compliance headaches (especially for the small entrepreneurial business person) and expensive and complicated machination to avoid income taxes by many....

In case you are wondering "what kind of complicated machinations, fuBarrio?", have a look at some of the links on my sidebar.

Of course, the company I work for is licensed in Uruguay to deal with foreigners money, and as such, are precluded from taking on Uruguayans as clients.

Don't know if any studies have been done on this, but it seems that a quasi-socialist state like Uruguay attempts to level the playing field....But in order to do so, they believe, requires taxing income of ordinary working citizens.

Therefore, the very smart, wily, rich (enough to afford good tax advice), and of course the unscrupulous who just ignore or break the law, aren't effected. The "law abiding" middle class that hasn't enough money to pay for good/expensive advice and offshore vehicles pays a majority of the tax burden. The end result is a group of very wealthy tax avoiders who take more from the public trough -- which manifests itself in the form of access and political or economic "favors", and a bunch of formerly middle class citizens wonderin why it's harder and harder to keep up.

So in the end, perhaps the attempt at providing a social saftety net for the poorest of the poor creates a bifurcated social strata where only the super rich and the strugglin to pretend they are middle class survive.

Sound like any other countries we know?

ciao,
fuBarrio

"It's a 'Veterinario' Restaurant!"

Uruguayans love their animals.

Usually with a little bit of salt, slow cooked over a wood fire...har har har....

When I first arrived in Montevideo I spent the first 3 months or so in a deperate search for a vegetarian restaurant that had somehow escaped the discovery of any of the other bloggers.

Of course, veternarian offices are more common than mini-marts in the US, so everywhere I would go, I would catch a glimpse of a sign that said, "Veterinario" and for a fleeting instant hope it was a restaurant...HA!...maybe in Korea. I'd think I'd found the source of deep-fried tofu and Qorn "naked cutletts" -- Only to find it was just another vet's office when inspected closer.

Here at the office we have a couple of established dogs that terrorize the neighborhood by barking at each and every living being that dares walk across the front of the home anywhere between our sidewalk and the river, a good 75 meters away.

We have a new dog in the office these days. Luna, pictured above, is Santiago's beloved yellow lab puppy. She is amazingly cute in everything she does. And, it's a good thing because despite great progress, her house training still leaves a little bit to be desired. My coworker calls her a cute "poopy" - a latin mispronunciation of puppy, but apropos in this case. (As an aside, in case you've never been to montevideo or haven't read much, the sidewalks are covered in the evidence of Uruguayos love for their pets and their disdain for cleaning up after them).

If you come to Montevideo, bring your love of dogs. But, leave behind your hope for a good vegetarian restaurant. The only meaningful exceptions to this are the Italian Restaurants (and pick and choose off the menu, or OdeFusion's Montevideo Vegetarian Food. Luckily, I have a connection at OdeFusion. :)

ciao for now,

fuBarrio

Old School Hoops in Uruguay

I mentioned in a blog entry over a week ago that I was going to play some basketball with some locals and a couple of expat friends.

Club "trouville" was the location (which I'd never visited before) in the neighborhood of "Pocitos". Trouville is also the name of a restaurant/bar and another pizza restaurant in another part of town.

Finding the location was a bit challenging (turned out to be next to the restaurant of same name) as it was set back off the street and the entrance was sheilded by a construction zone.

Club trouville was an "indoor" gym, meaning that there was a roof and walls, but it was a cavernous building (unheated) and as such the ambiant temperature in the gym was just above the level where ones breath is visible.

When I arrived I was greeted by one of my expatriate friends who mentioned to me, "from what I've seen, this is going to be 'old man fundamental' basketball."

Just as well with me...since working during the weekdays my health has taken a turn for the worse, and the thought of weazing up and down the court in the cold air was a bit concerning.

Almost immediately after that some of the Uruguayos came up and introduced themselves...It turns out at least one of them was *really* old (71!) but didn't look it....We played pickup ball, full-court, by 2's to 10. It took me about 3 games to figure out that 3 pointers counted as 2 (like I said, "old school" :) )

I managed to escape thoroughly old schooled and embarrassed several times by guys almost twice my age, but without injury....It turns out at least one of the older guys was a member of the 1956 Olympics team that secured the bronze medal....Hall of Famers Bill Russell and KC Jones led the US team to the Gold that year.

I felt a little bit better after learning that. I knew I had pitiful fitness and my basketball skills (which never were much good) were really rusty, but I was beginning to think that Cocoon 3 was being filmed or something.

ciao,

fuBarrio

Montevideo, Uruguay feria

A couple of shots that I thought looked "pretty" that Golden Lotus took at the Nuevo Pocitos "ferria". Basically (if i'm spelling it right - it turns out i wasn't it's "feria"). A feria is a street market. During the week, various neighborhoods have them to sell honey, eggs, cheese, fruits and veggies....think "farmer's market".

On the weekend, the bigger ferrias have farmers markets combined with crapfest flea markets.

ciao,
fuBarrio

"Duck!"

Ok. I admit it. I'm amazed by Hollywood.

How exactly does the action movie star *know* that the faint whining in the distance is really an 18 wheeler, out of control, about to crash into the side of a lingerie store that he and his fiancee are casually shopping in.....or that the glint of light across the street on the rooftop is actually the reflection of a careless assasins rifle scope?

It seems like the first couple of times you tackled your friends and family taking them out of "harm's way" in a false alarm it would start to get *really* annoying...."oops, sorry" as you help your loved one to her feet, dust yourselves off and sheepishly try to right the wunderbra display.

Ok...with all those caveats....

"DUCK!"

I don't know how much or how well the mainstream media is reporting or explaining what is going on in the mortgage credit markets right now....so here is my 10 second synopsis:

Lots of dudes have borrowed lots of money in a leverage way.
To borrow that money they had to have "collateral".
They pledged as collateral something that doesn't trade in the open market and is hard to appropriately value.
Chances are, if the true value were known, they would have to come up with extra money for collateral that they don't have.
But, luckily, they haven't been forced to admit what the true value is because these things don't trade very often. They can continue to pretend they are solvent.
However, there is a *chance* that someone could be forced to sell SOON and admit the true value.

The result will be a wave of repricings rippling through an overleveraged market....(yeah, there really isn't anything new out there, is there?)

So, what's the chances that I'll be sheepishly helping you to your feet and straightening your clothes after another false alarm?

Who knows.

However, this is really what I've been predicting since starting the blog....a credit crunch due to malinvestment in absurdly overpriced residential real estate leads to a big-time credit crunch and/or big inflation as the powers that be try to save the market.

If the "powers that be" manage to paper over the damage, it's just a stop-gap. The bill has to be paid by someone/somewhere....and it's much to big to be done without damaging someone somewhere.....if the damn doesn't break right here, right now, i'd be VERY suprised to see us get all the way to the end of the year so all these overpaid hacks can get their ridiculous bonus packages.

It will either be taken on the chin by the private sector - the very people that have been profiting grossly from this very boom, or it will be paid for with tax dollars in an outright bailout, or in a stealthtax by the Federal Reserve printing more money for the debacle and inflating away all the wealth that you've accumulated with your hard work up until now.

Can you guess what I'm predicting? (hint: see my earlier post entitled 'privatizing benefits and socializing risk').

Isn't it Great?

Now, if only being "right" paid as well as being "smart" and just gorging oneself at the trough until they take it away.....sigh...I really didn't learn *anything* from the dot-com debacle, did I?

ciao,
fuBarrio

Under the Weather in Montevideo, Uruguay

I've made some references to the fact that it is winter(y) here. Here are a few snaps to give you a feel back in the northern hemisphere where i'm sure it's all "sunshine and strawberries" right now : )

Take a look at the two pics below. I tried to take the pic from the same location that this one below was taken to give you a "compare and contrast" from a couple of months ago....yikes.

ciao for now,

fuBarrio

BROUracracy in Uruguay

Banco de la Republica Oriental de Uruguay, better known as BROU is the big government bank here in Uruguay. If your visceral reaction to the sentence above doesn't conjure up visions of machine like efficiency you would be correct. I had the extremely eye-opening experience of going to downtown Montevideo in an attempt to open a local account here.

If you know fuBarrio's disdain for beauracracy, you might ask why he would subject himself to a banking relationship with an institution that so clearly places no value on its clients' time. Well, opening a non-resident account in many countries is difficult or next to impossible, but when trying to find local banking here I found that opening an account in Uruguay even as a resident was very difficult.

In fact on more than a couple of occasions I was told by large Northern hemisphere banks -- ABN Amro, Bank Boston, and Citi bank that they couldn't do anything for me once they found out that I held a US passport.

The more I asked around, the clearer it became that I was really limited as a US citizen to one of a few banks....Big govt sponsored Uruguayan banks, an Israeli bank (that had blown up during the currency crisis) and possibly Lloyds Bank TSB (which incidentally called and mailed docs to my apartment asking for my banking business). I'm not sure who told them:

a.) who i was
b.) i was looking for banking
c.) where i lived, and
d.) my phone number
....but it was an impressive marketing push.

In the end, for a number of ill-fated reasons, I dropped my resistance to opening an account with BROU (aka "Banco Republica").

....to be continued....

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

The Panic of '07

The news coming out of New York is that a large investment house lent their name to two hedge funds that now find themselves in trouble with losses from the subprime mortgage market derivatives. Merril Lynch (one of the creditors) is looking for blood, and Blackstone is trying to broker a peace deal between the two (at least long enough to float their IPO on the unsuspecting public)

Back to the Future

The Panic of '07, a financial crisis in the US, would also become known as the "Bankers' Panic".

In March '07, over-expansion and poor speculation led to a small crash. Money became extremely tight. A second crash occurred in October '07. The market falls nearly 50% from its '06 prices, the economy is in recession, and there are numerous runs on banks and financial institutions.

The primary cause of the crash is attributed to a retraction of easy credit terms...starting in New York with some big banks and quickly spreading across the country leading to bank and business closures.

To bring relief to the situation, the US Secretary of the Treasury earmarked Federal money to quell the storm. Complete ruin of the national economy was averted when powerful banking interests step in to meet the crisis, redirecting money between banks, securing international lines of credit, and propping up prices by buying the securities of selected institutuions.

However, this assistance doesn't come without a cost. The banking interests use their additional political influence to push a bill through congress which just failed one year prior to the panic. The new bill creates a public private partnership and institution for averting excesses in credit creation and backing financial institutions for the stated purpose of advancing stability and ensuring that a panic like '07 is never replayed.

Notice anything funny about this "prediction"?

Actually everything under the heading "back to the future" is actually about 1907...rather than 2007.

The US Congress passed the Aldrich-Vreeland Act which established the National Monetary Commission to investigate the panic and to propose legislation to regulate banking. In 1913, the commission recommended the adoption of the Federal Reserve Act, which mandated the creation of a central banking system to dampen the effects of future panics.

Yeah....uh...ever heard of the Great Depression or the "law of unintended consequences"?

Ciao for now,
fuBarrio

When Good Trades Go Bad, Part II

...continued from my previous post on this matter.

Let's review some tenants of successful speculation:

1. Let your winners run
2. Good trades almost always go right, right from the "get go"
3. Cut your losses short
4. Try to buy into identifiable trends
5. Don't have an opinion
6. Don't advertise what you are doing (opinion)
7. Don't try to make the market meet your timeframe
8. Don't buy "ahead" of identifiable patterns

I previously covered what went right (not much), and wrong with the trades I previously posted...long txm.v and long sds (an s&p double short).

I left the previous post with number "4.) Try to buy into identifiable trends"

...so to continue:

Don't have an Opinion

Ok...this is a little silly, because as you know, opinions are like a-holes...everyone has 'em...especially fubarrio. But, in this case, it mean more that you shouldn't be "wed" to an opinion. One should try to analyze what is happening with as open a mind as possible and not through a lense of what they think should be happening. This is, at times, really difficult....especially if you are an opinionated bastard like fuBarrio. In general, you have to set that aside and just react to what is happening in front of you in the market. Otherwise, you could end up being "right" but not having the financial firepower to stick with a trade long enough to see it pay off (a very common thing).

In the case of these two trades I most certainly had an opinion, and jumping in front of two movin freight trains without even looking to see if there was any identifiable short term support was just stupid. In the case of sds, I wised up the next day. In the case of txm.v I just got "lucky" in the short run (although I still think after it cups this summer it is goin to be a huge hit relative to the rest of the marekt -- there I go with opinions again)

Don't Advertise what you are Doing

I first heard this from my very suspicious girlfriend, and I just attributed it to some islander voo-doo. However, for nearly a year I had a rule that I didn't tell anyone what I did for a "living". It was the most financially successful year I've ever had. Coincidence? I don't know.

I read a variation of this same "rule" in "confessions of a stock market operator" -- the psuedo biography of one of the greatest traders of all time.

After I read it, I thought about it some more and it makes sense. If you are telling people what you are doing, it is very easy to start to lose objectivity. You will be tryin to make the market something it is not...bending it to your "will"...that will never end well (see previous rule, "don't have an opinion") You may get lucky from time to time, or if you have a huge following and you tell people to buy as you fade the bounce you might get some results (for a while). But the reality is, it's better just to shut the hell up.

I obviously failed on this "rule" during these two trades

Don't try to make the market meet your timeframe....

...or any other "needs" you have. The market doesn't care. Like the rain doesn't care if you have a baseball game that day. It's irrelevant....except insomuch as it make you do irrational things.

trying to triple my stake in a few short months forced me to loose my patience and attempt to catch the market before i objectively saw that the trade was setup and ready.

another "F"

Don't buy Ahead of Identifiable Patterns

Seeing a technical pattern before it has formed is all well and good. However, if you are looking for higher success rates, not jumping the gun on those trades will do you well...In other words, buy the "break out", not the setup for the breakout.

Why?

Because the real buying activity only happens after there is confirmation in the breakout. Self-fulfilling prophecy? Perhaps. But in short-term trading we aren't looking for logic and reason so much as more predictable profits or "positive expectation"

Grade? "F" again.

As you can see, I've left my ineptitude open for the world to see in this post. That said I still think both will return 20%+ year over year (especially if taken together to guard against a market meltdown of somekind). However, the market can stay "irrational" longer than you can stay liquid....

*If* the market can continue the trend a little later into summer (really questionable at this point) I'll be looking for a turn to enter both of these trades in weight LATE in the summer with the hopes that fall/winter could be a good time to be in both. If the s&p rolls over in june or early july, i'll let you know what i plan to do then.

ciao for now,

fuBarrio

Mulletudes in Montevideo

I previously blogged about the unusually unfettered mullet population roaming freely on the streets of Montevideo.....while it may seem odd that a bald dog is commenting on anyone's hairstyle, it is merely my effort to inform with "paws on the ground". in case you've been in suspended animation the last 8 years, this will explain what a mullet is: www.mulletsgalore.com

In the states (when I left) the mullet seemed relegated to three main categories:

1. "old school" butt rockers trying to hang on to the 80's (see "dog the bounty hunter")
2. lesbians, and
3. female co-eds from Japan.

Here, however, it seems pretty mainstream. While at the mall, I snapped off some "unauthorized" pics, that in retrospect seems a little mean. I'm not trying to "make fun", but merely enlighten my three readers as to what the "scene" is here in Montevideo....So with that in mind, I'm now on GL's computer so I can retrieve completely authorized fotos GL took earlier this year.

Ok...granted the pic here of a dude is with more of a faux-hawk, mad-max redux than a classic mullet...so i'll have to work to get some "authorized" straightup mullet....just trust me...they are quite common.

In general, she would walk up to people and explain that she loved their hair and wanted to get a picture of it....clearly this is easier to do for Golden Lotus than a bald dog with an attitude problem.

ciao for now,

fuBarrio

When good trades go bad....

...or when "bad trades go worse".

well, even though i moved a signficant portion of my trading portfolio to cash, i left on a trade from my "house hunting days" and got "stopped out"....forced to take a loss after a 10% loss on the trade.

to refresh your memory, i put 10% of my "house" fund in sds (something that moves in reverse of the s&p only two times faster) and 10% in txm.v with a "stop" that would force a sale in the event that i lost 10% in either investment...meaning, the most i could lose in the house fund through either investment was 1% of the total....i left the rest in cash since the rest of the trades that looked good to me felt like "picking up nickels in front of steam rollers" (high risk/low return)

I ended up selling both of these trades for a loss. So, in the hopes of getting something positive out of the experience, i'll share what i did wrong (and right) on both of these trades in a hope of helping someone avoid the same fate. ironically, neither of these trades really met any of the criteria which i've been espousing on this very blog for nearly a year...and there is a reason for that, which i will explain as well. To review, here are some of the things that I've been saying on this blog about trading, and also some things I haven't but try (often unsuccessfully) to adhere to:

1. Let your winners run
2. Good trades almost always go right, right from the "get go"
3. Cut your losses short
4. Try to buy into identifiable trends
5. Don't have an opinion
6. Don't advertise what you are doing (opinion)
7. Don't try to make the market meet your timeframe
8. Don't buy "ahead" of identifiable patterns

Good trades almost always go right, right from the "get go"

the next day, i believe, i posted that *both* of these trades were really ill-advised based on how and why i entered them and i already had "buyers remorse" -- on the sds i bailed that day not waiting to hit the stop, taking a loss of about 1% on the trade (1/10 of 1% on the fund). On the txm.v i figured it was "in the black" and i just let it "run"

Let your winners run

trading advice...like most advice is full of contradictions. "No one ever went broke taking a profit", "pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered" and the advice of a rich man getting rich by "sellin too early" all seem to indicate that taking money off the table when "up" is how to acheive trading results.

However, "let your winners run" is also one of the most oft-advised strategies for trading. The key here, i imagine is to have some fixed rules with a "little bit" of flexibility (more contradictions!) it's important to note though that most traders make most of their money off a couple of trades that they gave a lot of time to "mature" into great trades....in fact, they are often times more often wrong than right, but they let their winners run...and....

Cut your Losses short

The flip side of "let your winners run" is to "cut your losses short". The often (ill in my opinion) advised "martingale strategy" (or some hybrid of said strategy) to to double down on a loss until you break even. Other variants of this include "dollar cost averaging", reducing your average cost of ownership by buying as the price falls.

I used to be one of the biggest proponents of this.....and, let's face it, in the 90's, in technology, this (along with almost ANY strategy) would work. But, when trading, weakness (especially relative weakness) in a security is really not a sign of anything other than your initial buy was WRONG.

Being wrong is not a sin. Not admitting you are wrong and hangin long enough to wipe out all your gains, is.

Try to buy into identifiable Trends

Everyone thinks they are or wants to be a contrarian thinker/trader. No one wants to think of themselves as one of the sheeple...myself included. Fact is, however, the easiest/safest money is just trading with the trend. "The trend is your friend" didn't just become a famous saying because it rhymes...although that helped! :)

On this I failed miserably. I bought sds in a huge downdraft (an insane s&p uptrend that had yet to break) and txm.v had fallen off a table and broken through any identifiable support.

...this post will be "continued" later today after i donate a lung playing some hoops with the locals.

ciao,
fuBarrio

fuBarrio's great BIG dreams for Uruguay

The more time I spend in Uruguay, the more I start to think of it as "home". It is afterall where GL is, where I lay my head on a daily basis, where I spend my productive hours working (now) and where I am pursuing legal/permanent residency.

When I first came to Uruguay it was a lot easier.

I wasn't working and had no plans on starting "work" (outside of trading). I was still in "tourist" mode where if I got tired of things here I would just extricate myself at a moment's notice and put Uruguay in my rearview mirror....lots of other places to check out before I got thrown off the big blue ball.

Now, in some ways, it's not so easy.

As an "immigrant" to Uruguay, I felt that I owed a duty to my new country to try to make things easier for them -- without necessarily trying to "change" things dramatically. I toyed with a lot of ideas (including volunteering to teach business English), but what I kept hearing over and over again was that they wanted/needed above all, were economic opportunities for young people.

No problem, right?

Well....even someone as arrogant as fuBarrio doesn't really imagine that he is the missing spice that is going to turn a small, relatively beauracratic, ranching/vacation destination into a global financial powerhouse. Uruguay needs some good ideas...a lot of energy....a lot of time...a lot of help, and a lot of luck.

I heard a lot of ideas for how Uruguay would become the next nexus of "call centers", "software outsourcing", "medical outsourcing" (insert US globalization victim du jour), but none of them really sounded right to me.

Granted, there are some small software outfits that operate in small niches...and there is at least one big player operating a call center out of "zona america" (a tax-free zone operating on the outskirts of MVD)....but what, other than waiting for the chinese and indian consumption patterns on meat to drive the prices of uruguay's cattle into the stratosphere did Uruguay have that wasn't so easily reproduced elsewhere? (note: the meat price inflation is no small deal and will have a profound effect here i believe...but, i'm not a rancher.....in general don't eat cows....and they don't need me for this. it is inevitable)

What does Uruguay have?

In spite of their obnoxious beauracracy, which makes starting a small business here unattractive for a newcomer they have a few really nice things:

1.) a liberal immigration policy (people are makin businesses out of bringing immigrants/expats here and providing them services). however, that isn't really my bag....too much like a "newbie shark" for my tastes. despite my involvement with http://www.uruguayliving.com/, that organization doesn't make any money...nor does it really charge for anything i'm aware of....it's just a service to help expats, immigrants, and visitors to network.

2.) good property ownership laws for foreigners. This makes it attractive for foreigners of all stripes to come to Uruguay and purchase a ranch or vacation property on the coast without fear of having their property "repatriated". I think a decent living could be made moving realestate to foreigners. This felt a little too http://www.internationalliving.com/ to me though (the online outfit that helps people become expats, but business model seems to be predicated on conferences where they pump new realestate developments to foreigners (for a cut of the sales i suspect)...see number 1 above, where i discuss "newbie sharking".

3.) Good banking secrecy laws. This seemed the most interesting to me. I had the dream of coming to Uruguay and helping people (from elsewhere) get set up with offshore companies (if needed) and offshore bank accounts for transacting business where repatriating dollars (or Euros or loonies or whatever) didn't make sense from a taxation standpoint.

Of course, once I got here and realized:

1.) how beauracratic this place was
2.) how hard opening a simple bank account was for an American for any bank in Uruguay that had a US affiliate bank,

I got discouraged. Then, I met some guys working on the same challenge.

What I spend my days doing

It so happens that the people who organized UruguayLiving and the online forum (English) dedicated to all things expat/immigrant uruguay ( http://www.sociedadsouthron.net/ ) moved to Uruguay specifically because of the banking secrecy laws....well that, and it's a nice place to live.

They started a "Treasury Company", Capital Conservator, as an offshore banking alternative. The unique structure helps them tackle the challenges of the immense beauracracy in Uruguay and the Uruguayan banking system, while enjoying the advantages of the banking secrecy. Our location in Uruguay, allows them to avoid the scrutiny and hassle that dealing through a bank from a recognized offshore financial center (like the bahamas) puts one through in the post 9/11 - Patriot Act - world.

While they had a small number of "high value" clients, they wanted to grow their business and brought me on to streamline the application process ( https://www.capitalconservator.com/form/step-start.php ) automate the banking transactions/secure messaging with clients, and "get the word out" :)

Working to get the first part of our project out to the public has made me feel closer to the ranching community....it's been at little bit like birthing a calf...or "herding cats" is perhaps more apt.

I've been working with collaberators, coworkers, and vendors in 6 separate time-zones...which of course got more confusing when the southern hemisphere moved the opposite direction of the northern hemisphere...and the northern hemisphere decided to change at different times :)

So what's the BIG dream for Uruguay?

We really feel like Uruguay has the chance to become the "Switzerland of South America". Of course, I realize the gravity of this endeavour will require decades of effort (at least). Meanwhile, fuBarrio has a birthday rapidly approaching (266 in dog years), and I realize it will likely be men after me that make the final push towards creating a recognized financial center out of this small ranching enclave. However, I will take solace in the fact that a played my small, insignificant role in bringing Uruguay just a little bit closer to being able to provide jobs for its educated and motivated youth.

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

"all work and no play...."

So, I've been working a lot lately....and frankly when you are working as much as I have been you don't have:

1. a whole lot of cool pics to put in your blog
2. a whole lot of interesting things to write about in your blog, or
3. a whole lot of new thought to express in your blog :)

As it gets more "winter-like" the days are getting shorter here....I think we are about a week away of hitting the equinox and enjoying some longer days.....I tend to leave for the office around 9, so it's usually light outside on the way to the office....but my evening commute usually looks a little bit like this:

Tonight, Golden Lotus would like for us to check out a new "fusion" restaurant in our neighborhood....fusion is an entirely new concept in montevideo...you'll still find very well educated/travelled baby boomers who've never had indian food, for instance.

I'll give you a review tomorrow, and luck and camera batteries permitting, a couple of photos.

ciao,

fuBarrio

"Mulling" things over in Montevideo

Granted, I may be a little "out of step" with the times...to wit:

1.) i am old
2.) i've been in south america for the last year

However, after about 6 years of calling for a full-fledged mullet revival in the US, it seems that South America is in the lead.

Why call for a mullet revival? (p.s. in case you have been living in a cave this is what a mullet is: www.mulletsgalore.com)

Well...it was mostly based on the cyclicality of fashion....i figured it was so out it was bound to be in again soon....and the youngsters who would bring it back never lived through the horror of it all the first time around.

i saw the early stages...the re-emergence of punk-wear immediatly preceding the evolution of the mullet in the late 70's and then early 80's (genesis of the 'bi-level'/mullet)....however, i never really saw the mullets being kicked hard until i got down here.

I've even managed to capture a few of these mullets on film! ..but you'll have to wait until i can get a couple of them from GL's computer....and a couple of friends' cameras.

Bein curious, i asked a few people....what's up with all the "canadian passports" and "soccer cuts"? Is the revival early in South America? I got the answer, "dude, it never left!" .....the bizarre thing is that this is not just relegated to guys working on hemi's named the spanish equivalent of "cletus" in the interior....fashionable, young ladies....otherwise perfectly put together will sport some pretty crazy mullets down here.

When i get back to the states I wonder if I'll see the same thing anywhere outside of the "Castro" in San Francisco (?)

ciao,
fuBarrio

...and even more pics of MVD

More MVD pics

foggy a.m.'s and crisp p.m.'s

rambla in a.m. and buceo at dusk.

Some more pictures of Montevideo

Some Pics!!!

I went to our local version of "walmart" (Geant) here in Montevideo to look at washers and dryers.

I snapped some shots of the trip out the window during the trip. These aren't the best pics because of the conditions (moving car) in which they were taken, but i've selected the best of the worst for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy.

fuBarrio/GL Update

Wow.


It has been forever and a day since I've posted. Lots of things "happening" here in Uruguay.


I've been pretty busy during the weekdays, and sick as a dog last weekend so I didn't get a chance to update everyone on the 'haps'. Here is a brief summary:


Montevideo weather:


it's still sunny at times, but the weather is much colder and the "windchill" makes it almost chilly :) keep in mind, this is coming from the perspective of someone who was living in the bay area, ca, so "chilly" doesn't mean snow or anything like that....just not "shirt sleeves" type weather like so many of the other months.


Our living situation:


we are moving out of the "pocitos nuevo" neighborhood back to punta carretas. "pocitos nuevo" is a nice hood, close to shopping restaurants, nice homes, and situated between pocitos (beach neighborhood with lots of expats) and buceo (costal hood with port for small pleasure crafts and sailing lessons, etc where the uruguayliving offices are located).


loved the apartment. could love it more without all the construction. i made a post about the construction on day one i think and haven't touched on it since. it hasn't stopped. i've refrained from boring you with the details. let's just say that once i found out that the owners of the building had expanded the work to be done on the building once the project was started...thus extending my "pain" i was forced to look for somewhere else to live.


the next occupants will have a nice place once the construction is over with. it won't be us.

punta carretas is a slightly older neighborhood that went through a "renaissance" when an old prison was turned into an upscale "mall"....yeah, i know.... :) it's really not as hideous as it sounds. malls here aren't like the US with seas of parking lots, chili's, tgif's, check into cash's and various and sundry sketchiness.


the idea was i'd get a flat in an older buildin with fewer occupants (2 to 4 unit) but i just couldn't find it in the time frame i had. basically, gl was going crazy with the construction and i had to compromise with a small-ish 2 bedroom 2 bath in an access controlled building on a relatively quiet tree lined street. i'll take some pics so you can get a feel once we've moved in.


because the neighborhood is more upscale, and it's furnished pretty nicely actually, the apt will cost us 750/mo. "all in". not as cheap as you may have been led to believe apts run if you read the "hype" from international living or elsewhere. 750 is actually 650/mo + "gastos comunes" which includes paying for the doormen (24/7) building maintenance, elevators, and central heat.

House Fund

if ya'll have been following along, you'll remember that i've been calling for a collapse in northern hemisphere realestate for some time. if you've really been following along, i had opined that the realestate prices in Montevideo that had no relation to fundamentals (median incomes) were being driven by a few things:

1.) govt money (uruguayan and foreign -- this is a capital and there are lots of embassy employees etc.)
2.) foreign company money (there is a little bit of this...people bein paid in dollars or euros and living on pesos...nice gig if you can get it)
3.) equity locust money....People with big appreciation in western Europe and north america either selling outright or heloc'in the homestead to afford cash purchases "down under".

1 and 2 aren't goin to slow alot unless things get REALLY bad, but i suspect that the flexibility of the equity locusts is going to be limited a bit and i'm hoping that it takes some pressure off of the insanity down here.

that said, any natural slowing will probably be offset by more and more people "discovering" uruguay and the fact that it has what a lot of people are seemingly looking for these days....peace and tranquility.

So, with that backdrop, and since we had decided to stay here on a more permanent basis i had decided that buying would only be possible given a couple of criteria:

1.) i could purchase something in the 150k range so i wouldn't be tempted to sell and move up if/when a drop in prices occurs here
2.) paying cash for something in the 150k range wouldn't significantly derail my other financial plans.....right now, it WOULD! :)

so, i had decided that i would try to turn 50k into 150k as an experiment in "gambling" and speculation, stripped naked for all the world to see here.

however, as it became more obvious that we weren't goin to be able to ride out our lease....much less extend it a few months to get me to next fall (when i suspect things could move more in my favor -- at least for positions i feel comfortable taking), i lost a little bit of my gusto for "gambling".

just as well, i reckon, as my two positions i've taken have been pathetic underperformers.

1.) i held a 2x s&p short and sold it after a 1% decline after realizin shortly after the purchase that there wasn't even a trend in place. i was just "wishin and hoping"

2.) i purchased txm.v thinking that things would pick back up in Uranium juniors for a minute before the seemingly inevitable summer doldrums. it was a really ill-advised purchase because the price was falling off the table with no visible support at the time.

the deadcat bounce saved me and i was actually up from 4.39 all the way to 5.2...then, i noticed something ominous....

Relative Strength

another uranium junior that i own (in another account) started rocketing up on higher volume (EMC.TO). trading was halted and they announced they were in "exclusive talks" to be acquired (perhaps).

the problem is that, that friday the entire sector (it seemed) when up heavily.....except txm.v. i got sick that friday night/saturday, or i was going to post something explaining "relative strength". Relative strength in a sector is important to look at because it gives you a much better idea of the strength of a given security than just looking at the perfomance alone.

imagine tiger woods and i golfed a round in a hurricane. tiger was 10 over and i was 110 over par. rather than conclude that tiger was a talented weekend duffer by looking at his score alone, by noticing that he was facing substantial "headwinds" (no pun intended) it would give you better predictive ability as to how he might do on a nicer day.

i had noted a month (or more) back that emc.to (US symbol EMU) was showing great relative strength.....i had attributed that privately to the fact that their uranium was closer to market than some of the other speculative juniors and they may be able to take advantage of the squeeze on short term supplies.

however, when the buyout speculation began across the industry 10 days ago and txm.v didn't move, it was time to get clear.... i didn't :) price fell from 4.8 to 4.15 over the next few days before rebounding slightly. i think if the industry faces a disappointment things could get rough for txm but i still suspect there is a floor of support just under 4 until the drill results are in. time will tell.

Ok...GL has just prepared me some 4 bean soup....time to eat lunch. I'll continue the update in another post.

peace,
fuBarrio

What will catalyze the "meltdown"?

Let's face it. fuBarrio has wasted a lot of time musing about potential melt-downs and scary outcomes for the financial markets in this blog. The executive summary of this entry in case you don't want to dig through the details of my still muddled mind is that I'm predicting a bankin crisis in the US -- beyond what we've already seen in the subprime lenders.

Uruguay and Argentina had a pretty brutal crisis here about 5 years ago that they are just shaking off. However, there are no shortage of people here with some pretty scary stories. While it's true that the people who were bein paid in dollars made out like bandits, those unfortunate souls would were being paid in pesos and borrowing in dollars made out like "bagholders"

The title of this blog entry "may" be overstating the case for a meltdown, but I believe a meltdown is imminent. So what does "imminent" mean? Well...this is a developin thesis so I'm still looking for feedback to help develop this theory from the two readers of this blog...but, as I start to lay out my arguments in a somewhat incoherent fashion (especially at first) maybe you can get an idea of what i mean by "imminent".

Here's the crux.

The US econ transforming into a service economy. While this sounds well and good, I believe it has gotten ahead of itself. Pushing bits has become the only way to make money in the US it seems. At first it was the technologists....and after that crashed the "bits" financial credits and debits represented by "bits" on a computer.....the new fangled version of pushing paper.

Why?

Lots of reasons, I guess....and i'm sure i don't know them all....but i think numero uno is costs of doing anything else in the North America. I had the opprotunity to look at the costs associated with opening up a new semiconductor fabrication facility in the valley in 2003/2004

Even with a desperate landlord and a built out fab selling for pennies on the dollar in the wake of the tech-wreck, all the "other" costs couldn't be reconciled against just boxing up the entire thing and sending it overseas. Now, don't get me wrong, moving, reinstalling and requalifying used semi fab equipment overseas ...even for a small fab, is a 7 or 8 figure expense....but the "hidden costs" of doing mfg business in the states is crushing.

Healthcare/insurance/pensions/unions
Regulatory hurdles to new facilities/beauracratic red tape
Attorney costs -- any long term relationship/contract with any vendor/partner/distributor/supplier becomes something for attorneys to pine over for weeks at 450/hr.
Taxes -- these come in a 101 flavors for the small business
Compliance -- this is a big bugaboo...Sarbanes Oxley hits not just big companies, but little companies with hopes of being big, or hopin to be bought by someone big.

So, it was hard to open a plant making refrigerators in America's heartland the last 10 years. So, rather than just sit around and starve we got creative about ways to feed our families.

Those with "education" and didn't want to pull down big bucks fixing toilets or swinging hammers often found themselves in some part of either the "Real Estate Industrial Complex" (REIC) or something broadly defined as "Financial Services"

The result of this (coupled with criminally loose monetary policy) has been an explosion in the REIC and financial services industry....to include in my definition for the REIC

builders & construction
specuvestors
appraisers
title companies
mortgage brokers
IB's repackagin mortgage products
RE Agents
inspectors
etc, etc, etc, etc.

And for the "financial services industry"

Managing
commodity trading
hedging
borrowing/lending
advising
mergers
hedge funcs
lbo's
PE funds
derivatives traders
etc, etc, etc, etc.

Now that the REIC is contracting massively, it is putting additional pressure on a financial services industry that is already leveraged to the hilt (in my opinion).

What we are seeing now is banks (and other assorted bagholders) who still have yet to "come clean" on the depth of the mess. In one of the most disturbin revelations to come out of this, I read a few months ago (have yet to independently confirm) that many banks are booking negative amortization loans' unpaid balance increases as income in the current period. This is eerily reminescent of almost every other "accident waiting to happen" in recent memory of my adult life.

In summary...."income" being booked that had nothin whatsoever to do with "cash flow".

Those banks and financial institutions unfortunate enough to be holding a large amount of residential real estate returned to them by borrowers unable to pay will eventually be forced to unload their holdings at "any cost" to remain liquid.

So again, in summary....I need to study this issue more thoroughly, but I'm predicting a banking crisis of sufficient magnitude to hit the mainstream press....and not just in the subprime lenders as previously born out.

you'll see them first (probably) in smaller, less capitalized, regional banks in areas hit by heavy fraud...and then if it gets big enough this whole mess could people to look under the rocks at fannie mae.....and that's where you wind up with "too big to fail" issues. when something is "too big to fail" typically, the US taxpayer ends up footing the bill while a host of clowns sail into the sunset already set for life. This is a key covenant of "privatizing benefits" while "socializing risks".

The exact reactions of the Fed, the US govt, and our trading partners are a little difficult to gauge right now....We could see something like the old Real Estate Trust Co. (RTC) reformed and that is why i really don't have any "new" plays to try in this market other than *possibly* shorting the banking index with long term puts (this b.s. could carry on for years before it's brought to the light of day) and an inflation hedge offsetting your puts in case the printing presses try to paper over this mess.

for now, in the housing fund, i'll sit in depreciating dollars and txm.v

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

moving to cash

this month i've been slowly moving more and more of the holdings to cash.

i'm going to accelerate that move tomorrow and be sitting 90% cash before next week.

i'm not "top calling", but i need to have time to analyse global liquidity...and i don't have that time right now.

i will diworsify across several currencies and hold an inflation hedge or two with what remains in the market.

good luck.
fuBarrio

"Do as I say, not as I do!"

I was looking at my two trades last week.

OK...I was hurried. I lacked sleep. I missed breakfast. The sun was in my eyes....(sorry, can't think of any other excuses).

In looking at the charts I'm not sure what I was thinking in those trades. After all the preaching in my blog about not tryin to time a top or bottom, etc, I make two trades attemptin to do exactly that.

I sold out of my s&P short fast....perhaps too fast...and i'm still holding my junior uranium miner.

The chart on txm.v is positively frightening when i look at it.

I'm up about 10%-ish on that buy, but it has all the hallmarks of a "deadcat bounce".....In other words, it would be very easy to give back all those gains and more....the price was below my price point but it got there so fast that the stock hasn't had a chance to build slowly and bring in new buyers.

A jab down and reversal can be lead by dumbasses like me buying and thinkin they are getting a "bargain". The ride back up can be short lived as the people caught flat footed earlier decide to liquidate into the strength.

So, what has really been happening in uranium? Why all the volatility?

two big fundamental events unfolded at about the time that the spot went over 100 for the first time. perhaps it was coincidence, but almost "on schedule" with my blogged predictions (based purely on pschological factors of pushing through triple digits on U3O8) we saw profit taking across the board in the complex of stocks dealing in uranium.

australia (at the national level) relaxed restrictions on new U mines. This is big. By some estimates australia has 30 percent of the easily accessible uranium and it had previously been restricted to 3 mines.

second, nymex is launching a futures market for uranium next week. ugh. just what we need (NOT!) :) the futures market is fraught with problems of its own as it's not tied to a physical delivery of the commodity.....otherwise, rogue states like fubarrio's abandoned oil platform could just get their raw U3O8 direct from nymex without all the cloak and dagger prospective "evil doers" have to go through nowadays.

justifiably, on the back of these two tidbits uranium speculation is taking a breather. i went long on txm.v because it hit my price point, but would have MUCH preferred that it hit that price point after cupping a little lower after a long and grinding summer of little to no interest in the issues.

that said....that could be the case on my next purchase in late august. for now, i'll hold tight for what looks like it could be a wild ride.

i still think a leveraged short into the general market will pay off big sometime...soon....i'm just not sure what i can predict it "tomorrow" yet.

once i do, i'll post it here.

ciao for now,
fuBarrio

A day with the Relics....

This Sunday afternoon GL and I spent a day with the relics.

And no, before I get flamed, I'm not talkin about hangin out with the usual cast of retiree types who frequent the Sunday expat get togethers. (har har har)

Golden Lotus and I went to visit some tibetan holy relics that were in Uruguay as part of some tour....in the basement of the uruguayan version of the YMCA (i think).

Golden Lotus has been in bean curd heaven as she has been the official chef this last week for the monks traveling with the relics. GL has her nascient food delivery service deliver all the meals to the monks during their stay.

Good thing for them I think as I learned they are "vegetarian, striving for vegan-ism". Speaking from experience, eating without animals can be pretty challenging in this part of the world.

The relics themselves mostly consisted of really small "pieces" of ancient religious leaders, etc. noticed one labeled a peice of a tooth of buddha's elephant or something (?) they had a really nice layout and setup though with lighting, drapery, music, candles and rice leading a path into the space....better than the "ymca basement" makes it sound.

i'm glad i went and GL was really happy to be there and get a prayer from one of the monks.

sorry no fotos as it wasn't really a good place for cameras.

ciao,
fuBarrio

"Sell in May and Go Away"

That's an old saying in markets.

Needless to say, it doesn't always hold true, however when it does and you're caught on the wron side of it, that saying will ring in your ears all summer.

I'm still in the depreciatin dollar in my housing fund, and off today ("may day" holiday).

I'm watching very closely today to see if there is an opportunity to get short in a big way. However, I'm very concerned about the excess liquidity continuin to crop up in the market. The futures are up this morning, but it has done almost exactly as predicted....It has cropped up over 13k....and if it holds true to the prediction it will "hit the wall" as it becomes obvious that no new rate cut is forthcoming.

CNBC is spouting that the dead dollar is helping international earnings -- a very sick way of looking at things. Earnings expressed in "non-paper" money, prices of stock, and the averages are DOWN in my estimation.

Time will tell.

ciao,
fuBarrio

p.s. sds is a way to get 2x short s&p and qid is a way to get 2x short the nasdaq

p.p.s. edit from 11:25 eastern. i went long on sds (an s&p short, yikes, and long on txm.v a uranium play that by all rights should have trouble going north the next 4 months.....double yikes....what can i say? they both hit my targets so i dabbled....i will stop myself out if/when i lose between 8 and 10 percent....i will update you on their progress.....

txm.v i was lookin for 4.5....it got all the way to 4.25....i loaded up, but couldn't get a fill until 4.39.

sds i bought a little this a.m. at 54.07 as a way to hedge a total route in the markets taking down txm.v with it.....so much for "selling in may and going away"

edit: may 2, 10:12 eastern...i chickened out of the sds after it was down a mere 1.25% :) just seemed too much like "top calling" to me....a dangerous business when you are an inflation believer. i still think there is a big down day in the cards, but i'll try to get on board as it is in motion rather than "guess". sds moves 2x faster than the s&p so 10percent of my position was in txm.v and 5% in sds. 85 percent in the dollar.
now, i am 10 percent in txm.v and 90 in dollars. i will update my house fund holdings in a new post at end of day today.

fuBarrio